You don't need to throw 95 mph to be an ace pitcher. Even as velocity continues to climb across the league, you can still find highly successful pitchers like Kyle Hendricks, Rick Porcello or Marco Estrada who get the job done without lighting up the radar gun.
Aaron Nola was supposed to be the next version of this, a pitcher who managed to rack up strikeouts and keep runs off the board based more on his ability to deceive batters and command the strike zone than his ability to blow the ball past them. He got the strikeouts part right last season, averaging 9.8 per nine innings, despite averaging just 90.6 MPH with his sinker and 91.3 MPH with his four-seam fastball. He did this thanks to his preternatural ability to rack up called strikes with his strikeout rate backed up by a middling 9.6 percent swinging strike rate.
The strikeouts were good, but the overall package left plenty to be desired. Nola ended up posting a 4.78 ERA, leaving open the question of whether his strikeout rate was sustainable, or if his inability to miss bats was somehow tied to how hittable he ended up being. Count me as someone who was skeptical of his ability to keep racking up strikeouts at that pace, at least based on what he showed last season.
It's only been two starts so far, but we might be seeing a very different Aaron Nola this season for the Phillies, one who might just be able to sustain those strikeout rates long-term. That's because Nola went out this offseason and added a couple of ticks to his velocity.
We started to see some reports in the spring that Nola was hitting 95 on the radar gun, but I initially dismissed them. Stadium radar guns can run hot, so I tend not to trust velocity until I can see some PITCHf/x data. After the first two starts of Nola's season, however, there is clearly something here, as BrooksBaseball.net has his average four-seam fastball up to 92.8 MPH; that's nearly two MPH up from last April. His sinker is also up to 92.0 MPH, from 90.9 last April.
In fact, Nola's two highest velocity sinker games have come in his first two starts of the season. Regardless of which fastball you track, Nola is up about 1.5 MPH from last season, increasing the gap between his fastball and changeup to 9.5 MPH. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given all this, that Nola's swinging strike rate is way up, both overall and with each individual pitch:
| Pitch Type | 2016 Velocity | 2017 Velocity | 2016 WHIFF% | 2017 WHIFF% |
| Fourseam | 91.26 | 92.84 | 6.56% | 19.23% |
| Sinker | 90.59 | 92.02 | 4.15% | 7.79% |
| Change | 82.26 | 83.31 | 12.50% | 37.50% |
| Curve | 76.94 | 77.29 | 19.57% | 18.33% |
We're still in the very early stages of the season, so those whiff rates have a lot of room to move. However, if Nola can sustain this kind of jump in velocity -- and with the way velocity tends to climb as the season goes on, he might have even more room to grow -- a corresponding jump in swinging strike rate wouldn't be an unfair expectation.
Nola still generates plenty of movement with his pitches, and his ability to generate called strikes remains a weapon, especially if he can finish off more at-bats with swings and misses. He continues to pound the strike zone, but opposing batters remain frustratingly unwilling to swing at those pitches. However, the difference this season is, when they do swing their contact rate on pitches in zone is just 78.9 percent, compared to 85.9 percent.
A version of Aaron Nola who can supplement his called strikes with more swinging strikes just might end up being an ace. And, if he can keep dialing his fastball up to the mid-90's consistently, it's a lot easier to believe in those swinging strike rates sustaining.
The fact that he is throwing harder is a good sign for Nola, but he isn't without risk moving forward. It does not, for example, change that Nola's season came to an abrupt end last July due to an elbow injury. It also doesn't necessarily mean that what we're seeing will stick; velocity fluctuates for every pitcher, and an increase in velocity doesn't always mean better results.
Still, it's hard to view what we've seen from Nola so far as anything but a good sign. It may not end up meaning much, but Nola has to be viewed as a higher-upside pitcher in light of this velocity bump. For those of you who invested a mid-to-late round pick in him, that's a great sign.
