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We're inching closer to the halfway point in the season and most of the regression we expected from April has already happened. Players have largely settled into who they're going to be for 2016, but not entirely. There are still players riding a wave of good fortune to better than expected results. That doesn't mean they have to come crashing down anytime soon, but it does seem unlikely that these five players will maintain these results over the rest of the season.
I wrote about Estrada regressing from his 2015 season in January, that hasn't gone so well. After a career as a league average starter, Estrada had a career year with a 3.13 win and a career high 13 wins. In 2016, he's been even better, and luckier. Jonah Keri wrote a very nice piece explaining Estrada's success earlier this season. I still don't buy that he can keep it up at this level.
Estrada's .216 BABIP against was the lowest by any qualified starter since 1988. This year he's lowered that to .189. Estrada's 79.2 percent strand rate last season was also uncharacteristically high ... so of course he has increased it in 2016. In fairness to Estrada, he's also struck out a lot more batters this year (8.3 K/9), but that's probably been mitigated by his 3.5 BB/9.
I'm done acting like Estrada won't outperform his peripherals with his new delivery. He clearly will. That being said, I'll never accept that he's going to continually outperform his FIP by 1.2 runs. I would expect an ERA closer to 3.81 than 2.81 in the second half. If he continues to strike out close to a batter per inning, he'll remain Fantasy relevant, but not nearly to the same degree. There's also the concern of an innings limit that may be approaching. If you can get a solid Fantasy No.3 or No. 4 I would deal him in a heartbeat.
This is probably a good time to remind you that regression is not always negative. In Holliday's case it's only half negative.
It's hard to find a player who has had a more flummoxing season. Holliday is a career .305 hitter with a walk rate of 10 percent. His power has diminished over the years, but he's been remarkably consistent with between 20 and 28 home runs every year from 2008 through 2014. His career ISO is .213, but he hadn't topped that since 2011. We really thought we knew what to expect from Holliday.
Through 72 games he has the lowest batting average of his career by 15 points and his highest ISO since 2007. He's only walking 8.1 percent of the time and he's on pace to crack 30 home runs for the first time since 2007. All of this craziness can be explained by three numbers. Holliday has an outstanding 39.8 percent hard contact rate, but an abysmal 13.7 percent line drive rate. He also has a career high HR/FB rate of 22.1 percent.
So yeah, Matt Holliday is probably going to regress in two different directions in the second half. I would expect more singles and doubles and less home runs. Something like a .270/.350/.450 line in the second half sounds about right if he stays healthy. If anything, he may be a better points league player, but I would expect a dropoff in Roto with the expected power dip.
You be hard-pressed to find a player I was more wrong about than Ian Desmond in 2016. He came into the year on a three-year decline in nearly every statistical category, and he has promptly reversed all of those trends. Desmond is one of only two players in baseball (with Jose Altuve) with at least 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases.
There's an argument that Desmond hasn't been this good for four years, so he won't be in the second half. I don't disagree, but I'll try to add a little bit more information. He has a .394 BABIP. He has a 22 percent HR/FB rate. Neither of those things are particularly likely to continue. Desmond has been one of the best shortstops in Fantasy baseball and a top-10 outfielder. If you can get that type of value for him, I'd sell now.
Salazar has had a breakout first half in the way that many of us had been hoping for. He has continued to strike people out, he has stopped giving up home runs and he has pitched very well with runners on base. Salazar has been the ace of the Indians staff as they've taken control of the American League Central.
I really want to buy it, but how dominant can you be while walking a batter every other inning? Nolan Ryan is the only pitcher who ever consistently put together the type of season Danny Salazar is having. The difference was that Ryan used to do it while throwing 300 innings. In today's baseball environment, Salazar will be lucky to crack 200 unless he becomes more efficient. I still think Salazar can be a top-20 Fantasy pitcher because of his strikeout potential, but if someone is willing to offer top-10 value, you should jump on it.
We'll finish with a player who is the anti-Marco Estrada. I felt pretty certain that Gonzalez' .341 BABIP from 2015 would come back to earth this year. It has regressed, but only 17 points so far. Gonzalez is still striking out more than a batter per inning and has a career low walk rate. Things should be going great for him, but he sits at 3-7 with an ERA well over four. I would expect more wins and better luck in the second half. He's owned in 87 percent of leagues, but only started in 52. This is a guy you can probably pick up for a song, and I'd do it before his luck changes.
