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Welcome to Hump Week. Once Fantasy Week 13 (June 27-July 3) is over, half of the season is in the books. For owners in leagues that have playoffs over the last several weeks of the season, you are ever closer to the home stretch. Even owners in Rotisserie league will start to feel the heat a little more.
Among this week's waiver options for pitching, there's a little something for everyone. Need someone on a roll to step up into your rotation and keep you near your league's lead? It looks like a good week to give Adam Conley a try. Desperate to get back in the race? Daniel Mengden, Archie Bradley and Tom Koehler all carry significant risk, but each has the upside to potentially give you a big boost. Looking for some prospect intrigue? The Pirates still need a fifth starter, and Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow are both possibilities.
The two-start landscape
Since there are 24 pitchers with CBSSports.com ownership rates above 75 percent who are scheduled for two starts in Week 13, chances are you won't need to scour the waiver wire, just to fill out your rotation with a reasonable number of starts. Of those 24, only Marco Estrada (at COL, vs. CLE), J.A. Happ (same matchups) and Francisco Liriano (vs. LAD, at OAK) are risky enough to be benched. (Julio Urias may only make one of his scheduled starts, but he could be worth using just for his outing at the Brewers.)
If you do want to take the plunge on a waiver wire pitcher, Conley is likely to be the best available option. He is still unowned in 35 percent of our leagues, and he has rebounded from a difficult stretch in May to post a 2.59 ERA in June. Conley's one poor start this month was at Arizona, which was his only outing at a park that is amenable to power hitters. This week, Conley will pitch at Detroit and Atlanta, and neither venue is especially good for doubles or homers. That's good news for the lefty, who sports just a 40 percent ground ball rate.
As mentioned above, Mengden is also one of the better two-start options on waivers, and he has impressed in his first three major league starts. The A's rookie has struck out 21 batters in 18 innings over three starts, though two of his opponents -- the Brewers and Reds -- are among the major league leaders in strikeout rate. This week's opponents -- the Giants and Pirates -- are much better at making contact, with the former team trailing only the Angels for the honor of lowest strikeout rate.
With a 3-7 record and 4.22 ERA, Matt Wisler might look like a two-start option to avoid, but he could have a big week. The Braves' offense is starting to perk up, and he has a 3.40 ERA and 0.8 HR/9 at home this season, if we allow him to take a mulligan on starts against the Red Sox and Cubs. His pitch-to-contact, flyball-heavy approach could work well against the Indians and Marlins at Turner Field this week.
Matchups that Matter
The Rays have been a boon for strikeouts all season, and they're an even better matchup now that five of their outfielders are on the disabled list. Rick Porcello will not only get the benefit of facing a depleted, strikeout-prone lineup, but he'll get to do that in the cavernous confines of Tropicana Field. Carlos Rodon is currently started in only 35 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, but with a single start against the Twins in Week 13, it's high time for owners to get the White Sox lefty off the bench, or possibly even off waivers in shallower leagues.
If neither Porcello or Rodon is available to you, or even if they are, take a moment to see if you can add Bradley. His control issues reemerged earlier this month, but there may be no better remedy for that than a matchup against the Phillies, who have the second highest rate of swings at pitches outside the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. That matchup worked out well for Bradley last Sunday, as he did not allowed an earned run against the Phillies, and walked only two batters over six innings. While I don't agree with my Twitter poll respondents that Bradley is a better play than Porcello, I do agree that it's better to start him than a two-start Blake Snell.
Week 13 pitching dilemma. Who starts out of Blake Snell, Archie Bradley or Rick Porcello?
— Al Melchior (@almelccbs) June 24, 2016
If you did a double-take when I mentioned Koehler as a possible pickup, there's good reason. He hasn't built up strong Fantasy credentials over his career, and he hasn't been throwing strikes this season. Then again, Koehler has reeled off a string of nine outings that has produced a 2.59 ERA and seven quality starts. He has had the benefit of playing almost exclusively in pitcher's parks, but he also has the fourth-lowest hard contact rate this season (per FanGraphs). Koehler gets an ideal matchup by facing the Braves, who are the one team that swings at pitches out of the zone more than the Phillies.
If you aren't avoiding CC Sabathia because of his ankle injury, it's a good idea to bench him because of his matchups. While you weren't looking, the Padres settled into sixth place in the wOBA rankings against left-handed pitchers. Sabathia's second opponent, the Rangers, sit one spot behind them in seventh place.
Extreme park factors
Just as Sabathia has the double whammy of an injury and bad matchups, Estrada is combining some health concerns with a questionable venue. Sure, Estrada has pitched just fine in his home games at Rogers Centre, but Coors Field is still a tougher place to prevent extra-base hits. His start at Colorado could ruin a week that ends with a home start against the Indians. It's also worth noting that Estrada left his last start early with back tightness. Aaron Sanchez is also slated to start at the Rockies, so he should be avoided as well.
When the Blue Jays return home, they'll be ready to greet flyball-prone righty Josh Tomlin, perhaps with a long ball or two or three. It's a good week to sit Tomlin, who is currently active in 60 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com.
Injury update
Gerrit Cole (triceps) is eligible to come off the 15-day disabled list on Sunday, but he won't be ready by then. There is currently no timetable for his return.
Rich Hill (groin) will make a rehab start Monday for Stockton in the California League, and he could return to the Athletics' rotation by next weekend.
Sean Manaea (elbow) will start for Stockton on Friday, and he could be back in Oakland's rotation in Week 13.
Vince Velasquez (biceps) could return from his rehab stint to start for the Phillies on Monday at the Diamondbacks, according to Philly.com.
