Well, that escalated quickly.

We went from reports that Adrian Peterson could come back in one week to legitimate fears he won't play again in 2016. Here are the four things you need to know right now.

Watch the Vikings transactions if you want to know how to proceed with Peterson.

Peterson is an incredible athlete who made one of the most impressive recoveries we've ever seen from ACL surgery. He turned 31 in March, but there's little doubt he'll go into this with the mindset that he's coming back in 2016. Whether that's realistic or not is another story.

You shouldn't even consider cutting Peterson until if and when the Vikings place him on Injured Reserve. Even then, there's a chance that he could be designated for return and you aren't going to find that out any time soon. The best case scenario if Peterson is placed on IR would be a Week 11 return. In some leagues, it's absolutely worth holding him for that chance.

Jerick McKinnon or Matt Asiata?

Probably both. Maybe neither.


For now, let's think short term and assume it will take a couple of weeks to work Hillman in. In 2014 when Peterson missed almost the entire year, McKinnon was the far more efficient back and saw more work when both were healthy. Here are the nine games they played together:

2014 ATT RU YDS Y/R REC REC YDS TD
Matt Asiata 83 269 3.2 24 206 7
Jerick McKinnon 97 483 4.98 24 126 0

You'll notice the main disparity comes in yards per attempt and touchdowns. It's a little bit fluky that McKinnon didn't score a touchdown, but I would absolutely expect Asiata to be the goal line back. The two split work in the passing game and surprisingly Asiata was more efficient. I would not expect that to continue.

Jerick McKinnon is the more talented back and the only one worth spending more than 20 percent of your FAAB on. Asiata is a consolation prize who might score touchdowns if you happen to play him on the right week. Make an effort to get McKinnon and settle for Asiata or Hillman if you can't.

Can any back be good behind this line?

Through two weeks the Vikings rank 28th in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, and Peterson was gaining only 1.6 yards per carry on 31 carries. The film looks every bit as bad as those numbers suggest, and Peterson wasn't the only player the Vikings possibly lost for the year today.


So if Peterson can't be good with a healthy line, why would McKinnon, Hillman or Asiata with a patchwork line?

That's a fair question, and there's a non-zero chance the three backs combine to be a committee of disappointment. But there's also reason for hope. McKinnon is very good in space, so he should be more efficient in the passing game than Peterson ever was.

Also, Peterson wasn't a great fit for this offense and some thought the Vikings were holding themselves back by running the offense through the future Hall of Famer. While that's kind of ridiculous, they will be free to play the way they want to now. McKinnon can be good if the team gets him in space and the passing game forces the defense to back off the line. Asiata can be good if the team gets him in enough goal-to-go situations and he cashes in. For now, I believe in order for Hillman to make a Fantasy impact, one of Minnesota's other backs has to get injured or play poorly.

What does this mean for the rest of the offense?

I don't see any way this hurts Sam Bradford or Stefon Diggs. If anything, it probably helps them. The Vikings are going to play more up-tempo football and throw the ball on a higher percentage of their snaps. If Bradford can stay healthy, both he and Diggs have a chance to have career years. Now, Bradford's health has always been a concern and it may be even more so with this offensive line.

Those same PFF rankings have the Vikings ranked 31st in protecting the quarterback. That becomes an even bigger concern if defensive lines stop respecting the run altogether and tee off on Bradford. That's the only way I see this as a downgrade.

With that in mind, Bradford gets a small bump into the top 20 in rest of season quarterback rankings and Diggs solidifies his spot as a solid No. 2 WR. I'm not starting McKinnon or Asiata in Week 3 if I can avoid it. Partially because it's not a great matchup and partially because I would like a week of evidence as to how these two will be used. Assuming McKinnon gets around 67 percent of the work and starts the rest of the season I'd rank him right around the bottom of the No. 2 RBs.