Usually, when a blockbuster trade or transaction happens, we tend to focus on the team getting the star player. The other team moving on is generally an afterthought. But that doesn't seem to be the case with Wednesday's Stefon Diggs trade from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans.
First, let's get to the trade details. The Texans are getting Diggs, a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick from the Bills. Buffalo will receive a 2025 second-round pick from Houston.
It feels like the Bills just wanted Diggs gone, and Buffalo is taking on a $31.1 million dead cap hit with this trade. The Bills now have a revamped receiving corps without Diggs and Gabe Davis (Jacksonville) surrounding one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen.
One of the biggest questions after this trade is if Allen is still the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback coming into the season? For now, the answer is yes, but it's a tenuous ranking. His ability to make plays with his legs -- and be Superman -- is his best asset, and he's averaged 683 rushing yards and nine touchdowns over the past three seasons, including a career-best 15 rushing scores in 2023.
I obviously want to see what the Bills do in the NFL Draft at receiver to help Allen. It's a loaded draft class, but Buffalo's lone first-round pick is No. 28 overall. The Bills can try to offer a package to move up and hopefully select one of the top guys in Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze, but that seems unlikely.
They're definitely going to address the position because the current receiving corps is led by Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins. Of this group, I like Shakir the best, but he's just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver. And Shakir and Samuel will be worth drafting in Round 8 at the earliest, depending on the rookies who are added.
Of the free agents still on the market, Buffalo could look at guys like Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Boyd, Michael Thomas or Michael Gallup, among others, but do any of them move the needle? Not much, if at all. And maybe the Bills swing a trade for someone like Tee Higgins, although that seems unlikely.
The biggest winner for Buffalo right now is Dalton Kincaid, who was already a breakout candidate heading into this season. The second-year tight end was a top-five tight end in my rankings, and this move just solidified it. He's behind only Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride and Mark Andrews, and I plan to target Kincaid as early as Round 5.
Even Dawson Knox, as of now, is worth a late-round flier. And this trade keeps James Cook locked in as a borderline No. 1 Fantasy running back, worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or the beginning of Round 3 in all leagues. Cook averaged 13.7 PPR points per game in 2023 and had 44 catches for 445 yards and four touchdowns on 54 targets.
The Bill's offense will continue to have plenty of questions until the receiving corps is finalized. That's clearly not the case with the Texans, who have one of the best offenses on paper following this trade.
This offseason, Houston added Joe Mixon via trade from Cincinnati and re-signed Dalton Schultz. Now, with Diggs, the Texans receiving corps is among the best in the NFL.
The biggest winner in Houston is C.J. Stroud, who should improve in a big way following his standout rookie campaign in 2023 when he averaged 21.5 Fantasy points per game. With Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Schultz and Mixon, the Texans will be impossible to defend. Stroud is now worth drafting as a top-five Fantasy quarterback, and the only guys ahead of him will be Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
As for the receivers, this is where things get tricky, especially in the Diggs vs. Collins debate. I'm going to rank Dell third of the group, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 5 in all leagues.
He was awesome as a rookie in 2023 when he averaged 15.0 PPR points per game before suffering a broken leg in Week 13. He's expected to be ready for training camp, but it will be tough for him to average 7.5 targets per game like he did last season now that Diggs is on the roster.
I like Collins as the best Texans receiver still, but he loses value with Diggs now in Houston. Before the trade, I was targeting Collins in the middle of Round 2, but the earliest he should be drafted now is the middle to the end of Round 3.
Collins averaged 17.4 PPR points per game as a third-year breakout receiver in 2023, but it will be hard for him to produce at the level again when everyone is healthy. For example, in five games without Dell last year, Collins averaged 22.0 PPR points per game, so his numbers popped when he was clearly the focal point for Stroud.
The earliest I would draft Diggs now is Round 4, and he's coming off a down campaign in 2023 when he averaged 16.1 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total in Buffalo since joining the team in 2020.
The last time Diggs reached 100 receiving yards was Week 6, and he scored fewer than nine PPR points in six of his final eight games in the regular season. He also turns 31 in November.
I still think Diggs has plenty to offer and will prove to be a valuable weapon for Stroud. But I'm also not going to reach for him on Draft Day now that he's part of this crowded receiving corps in Houston.
As for Mixon and Schultz, nothing really changes for either player. Mixon should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 4. And Schultz is just a late-round flier at tight end.
This was a blockbuster trade for Houston and Buffalo. The Bills still have plenty of questions at receiver, but the Texans certainly made things better for Stroud heading into his sophomore campaign.
