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For so many reasons, Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig has been one of the most talked about players in baseball since entering the league in 2013. His play generally does enough talking for him, but with just three home runs and no stolen bases through 32 games, that hasn't quite been the case so far this season.
On Wednesday's episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Al Melchior, Adam Aizer and I debated Puig's relative value for Fantasy players. His .294/.382/.471 triple-slash line looks pretty good, but the Fantasy value just hasn't been there. For someone who was viewed as a sure-thing top-10 outfielder coming into the season, it is more than fair to say Puig has been a disappointment.
The question for me moving forward is a two-parter: Can Puig be expected to live up to those preseason expectations moving forward? And were those expectations fair to begin with?
Let's start with the latter question first and move forward from there. Puig has only played one full season in the majors, and it was a very good one. He hit .296/.382/.480 in 148 games last season, which was good for… 18th among outfielders in Rotisserie scoring last season. He faired a little better in H2H points leagues, but was still just 12th among outfielders. For a consensus top-10 preseason pick, those aren't terribly promising results. Why is that?
Well, for all of Puig's tremendous gifts, he's still yet to hit 20 homers in a season, or drive in more than 70 runs or steal more than 11 bases. Neither of those factors hurts on its own; after all, Adam Jones stole just seven bases last season, and Matt Holliday had just four of his own, and both finished ahead of Puig. However, Jones drove in 96 runs and clubbed 29 homers, while Holliday has 90 RBI, 70 walks and only 100 strikeouts. Being an all-around contributor is great, but you still need to stand out somewhere, and it's hard to argue Puig does at this point in his career, beyond maybe scoring runs.
It was, of course, fair to expect improvement, but if Bryce Harper's career has taught us anything, it's that it is hard to say just when everything will click at the same time. Buying into that upside is worthwhile, but it is worth noting that there will always be risk in expecting a player to do something we've never actually seen him do.
Alright, so expectations were probably a bit too high for Puig coming into the season; at one point, he was as high as No. 6 in Al Melchior's rankings at outfield. However, there are a few things to keep in mind when judging his season so far, and I probably should have mentioned one key one earlier; he hasn't really been healthy this season.
Puig injured his hamstring on April 14, and that injury took a long time to go away. According to ProSportsTransactions.com, Puig hasn't gone more than 17 days without being on the injury report for some malady since. The hamstring injury is probably the main reason why Puig has attempted just two stolen bases all season. He was more selective last season than as a rookie season, but he has still run on just 2.9 percent of his stolen base opportunities, per Baseball-Reference.com; he ran more than twice as often a year ago.
As his hamstring gets healthier, we should expect more running from Puig. The other thing worth noting regarding Puig is that, despite being a bit of a disappointment, he has actually improved in some key ways this season. Specifically with regards to his plate discipline.
On Sunday, manager Don Mattingly told the Los Angeles Daily News he still doesn't think Puig is going up to the plate with a plan on how pitchers will attack him. Far be it from me to question Mattingly -- he's got a lot more baseball experience and knowledge than I do, clearly -- but available evidence suggests that might not be entirely fair. Puig's plate discipline has improved each season of his career, with his strikeout and walk rates moving in the right direction yet again. This is why he has been able to sustain a batting average just two points shy of last season's mark despite a drop in home run rate and BABIP.
Of course, strikeout and walk rate aren't all there is to plate discipline, and this is where Mattingly might have a point. Puig is making more contact than ever, though most of that improvement has come on pitches outside of the zone. He is making contact on 68.1 percent of his swings on out of the zone pitches, compared to just 59.1 percent a year ago. His rate of swings on pitches out of the strike zone has jumped up a bit, and that isn't a good sign. Making more contact is great, but you will reach a point of diminishing returns pretty quickly if you don't make good contact.
That might be what we're seeing with Puig. His hard-hit average has fallen from 34.6 percent to 33.3, while his soft-hit average has jumped from 17.4 to 22.9 percent. Hard-hit average has a strong correlation to raw power, so it shouldn't be terribly surprising that Puig's HR/FB rate has dropped to 9.4 percent. Given that he doesn't hit a ton of fly balls as it is, Puig can't really afford a dip in his in-game raw power if he is going to live up to expectations.
All in all, Puig is a very similar player to the one he was a year ago. In a vacuum, that isn't a bad thing, but it is obviously a disappointment for anyone who drafted him expecting him to jump into the elite tier of Fantasy outfielders. For those of you who didn't buy into the Puig hype coming into the season, however, this might be the perfect time to buy low.
Fantasy owners who are disappointed in a breakout candidate might be liable to overreact when it comes time to judge his value moving forward. Though Puig is basically as valuable as he was last season, his disappointed owner might not view him that way, given his draft value. If you know to value him appropriately -- as more of a top-20 outfielder than a top-10 -- this might be a great opportunity to trade for him.
Disappointment is all relative, after all.
