Entering play Wednesday night, Carlos Carrasco was sporting a 4.16 ERA through his first 15 starts of the season. That despite more than a strikeout per nine innings and a strikeout to walk ratio well over five. He was, in other words, one of the best buy-low candidates in baseball.
After carrying a no-hitter deep into the ninth inning against the Rays Wednesday, it's hard to make a case that you'll get a good deal on him. This isn't a Chris Heston situation, where Scott White smartly suggested Fantasy players try to sell Heston immediately after his no-hitter. Carrasco has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in the league, and it looks like he is finally starting to get the results to go along with it.
Just how dominant was Carrasco Wednesday? As Adam Aizer pointed out on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Carrasco racked up 30 swinging strikes in the outing, the most in any start by any pitcher since 2012. He was utterly dominant, and that isn't exactly a new thing; he has racked up at least 10 swinging strikes in seven straight starts and 13 of 14 overall. He has a 13.5 percent swinging strike rate, good for seventh in baseball -- right behind teammate Corey Kluber -- and it isn't even an outlier for him, as he sported a 13.4 percent mark a year ago.
Carrasco's slider was especially potent Wednesday, as he picked up 14 of his swinging strikes with that pitch. That is the second start in a row he has picked up double-digit swinging strikes with his slider, though it was by no means the only pitch he baffled the Rays with. Carrasco registered a swinging strike rate on 18.9 percent of his sinkers, 33.3 percent of his changeups and 29.4 percent of his curveballs.
Clearly, Carrasco has the stuff to keep this dominance up. However, the pitcher can only control so much of run prevention, and this is the aspect of his game -- or rather, his teammates' game -- that could really take off from this point on. The Indians have been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, as they rank 28th in defensive runs saved per FanGraphs.com.
On June 13, the team had a BABIP of .321, with Carrasco's sitting even higher, at .342. On June 14, top prospect Francisco Lindor, a slick-fielding shortstop, made his debut, bringing in a new era for the team's infield. Since that date, the team's BABIP has plummeted to .266, and Carrasco's has been just .250. Maybe it's just a coincidence -- how much difference can one player make? -- but Lindor rates out as a much better defensive player than his predecessor, Jose Ramirez, was.
The only thing holding him back early in the season seemed to be the defense behind him, and if that is fixed, he could shoot up the pitching ranks. Carrasco's fielding independent pitching stats have been elite all season long, and he now ranks 12th in FIP and seventh in xFIP. With elite strikeout abilities, strong control and above average groundball rates, Carrasco does pretty much everything you want from an elite starting pitcher.
There is some room for concern about Carrasco's ability to hold up through a full season, as he hasn't tossed more than 134 innings in a season since 2010; he was used as a reliever for much of last season. However, based on what he has done all season, Carrasco has top-10 pitcher potential. And it isn't just this season; he is sixth in FIP going back to last season.
If you were looking for a pitcher with breakout potential in the second half, Carrasco looked like an obvious candidate just a few weeks ago. However, now that the breakout is in progress, you'll have to pay a dear price to pry him from his current owner.
Look elsewhere, perhaps to Michael Pineda (4.08 ERA; 11th in FIP), Tyson Ross (3.57 ERA; 20th in FIP) or even Carrasco's teammate Danny Salazar (3.80 ERA, 13th in xFIP), who could see a similar boost from the improved defense. The time to steal Carrasco has passed.
