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We've just about reached September, which means the playoffs are about to begin in your Fantasy Baseball league if they haven't already.
In other words, we're all about to lose our minds.
Don't believe in "clutch?" It's one of those unending debates baseball fans have, but one sign it may exist is how our own behaviors change with more on the line. Every lineup decision is more critical than ever because every lineup decision could be the one that ends our season, and because of that, we feel the need to try harder.
That's especially true at starting pitcher, where Fantasy owners have long struggled to reconcile the five-man rotation with the six-game week. Every week, some pitchers make two starts while others make only one, and it presents us all with a quantity-vs.-quality quandary.
Who do I bench to get an extra start in my lineup, and how many starts do I need?
Traditional categories leagues do a better job of leveling the playing field because two of the five pitching categories, ERA and WHIP, are ratios. A second start from a marginal pitcher will probably do more harm than good to them and therefore isn't worth the expected boost in strikeouts and wins. Where it gets really tricky are Head-to-Head points leagues where even a not-so-quality start is more likely than not still in the black.
Just to advance to this point, you must have come up with some kind of solution. Personally, I maintain a large enough pitching staff that I can always count on having seven or eight starts and never really concern myself with the streamer types. Perhaps you do the same.
But now that you're in the playoffs, maybe seven or eight starts aren't enough. Maybe you need 10. Maybe you need to ransack the waiver wire every week, replacing every one-start Jake Arrieta with a two-start Jake Peavy.
Or maybe you just need to chill out.
Look, I know it goes against everything we believe as fans -- calling for the manager's head whenever our real-life team goes two years without a championship and whatnot -- but only one team can win. And every team wants to win. And because of that -- guess what? -- yours may not.
And it may not be your fault.
In fact, I'm here to make sure it isn't by reminding you that just because more is on the line doesn't mean you need to try any harder. You're in the playoffs, let's not forget. You were trying pretty hard to begin with.
Above all, you don't want to do anything stupid, and sitting a one-start Arrieta for a two-start Peavy would be exactly that.
But it's not so far off, right? In standard CBSSports.com leagues, Arrieta has averaged 20.8 Fantasy points per game, and Peavy has averaged 10.2. It may not quite be half, but aim just a little higher than Peavy, and you have a two-start pitcher worth starting over a one-start Arrieta, don't you?
It seems logical -- and maybe over a 100-start sample, it would play out that way -- but because of the large disparity between a good start and a bad start, scoring average isn't the best way to assess a starting pitcher in Fantasy.
There's a difference between what's average and what's typical for a pitcher. Arrieta is as close to a lock as any pitcher for 25-plus Fantasy points every time he takes the mound (I know his scoring average is lower than that, but that's why I said he's close to a lock, not a lock). Peavy's scoring is more sporadic. Maybe his two starts are better than Arrieta's, but maybe they're much worse. It's a gamble that could pay off but is ultimately unnecessary because if Arrieta does what he's supposed to do -- what he has been doing for you all season -- he won't be the reason you lose.
Don't give yourself a reason to lose. If riding Arrieta has gotten you here, why change it now?
That's not an all-encompassing philosophy. Certainly, some changes in approach this time of year are natural and reasonable. For example, if you've avoided picking up an additional two-start pitcher in the past because you didn't want to forfeit a long-term stash like Joey Gallo or Corey Seager to do it, well, with one-month left, that long-term stash can only be of so much use to you. Doesn't look like either of those prospects is going to play a major role down the stretch, so you may want to start playing for the here and now.
And maybe, then, you would consider rostering a two-start Peavy and playing him over a fringier one-start option like Taylor Jungmann. I don't want to undermine the value of extra starts here, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
Where do I draw it? Well, looking at my rest-of-season rankings, I'd say the list of unbenchable starting pitchers ends at about 25, which includes pitchers like Stephen Strasburg, Lance Lynn and Noah Syndergaard and of course clear-cut aces like Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray. Others I'd have a hard time sitting given their upside from start to start include Danny Salazar, Hisashi Iwakuma, Collin McHugh, Justin Verlander. They're just outside the top 25, so maybe you could extend it to 30 if you want a more definitive line.
But it doesn't need to be complicated, just like the rest of the season wasn't. You just have to remind yourself some pitchers are too good to sit and accumulate as many competent starts as you can otherwise.
