The Tampa Bay Rays are going through a rough stretch. They haven’t had a winning season since 2013; they haven’t won a playoff series since 2008; and last year’s 68-94 effort was the worst showing by St. Pete’s own since, well, the Devil Rays days.
Can this year’s Rays team change any of that bad juju, or is the franchise on its way back to the cellar?
The vitals
- 2016 record: 68-94
- 2017 depth chart: Click here
- 2017 schedule: Click here
Will the free-agent gambles pay off?
There are three guarantees about every Rays’ offseason:
- Evan Longoria’s name will be mentioned in trade rumors;
- An increasingly expensive veteran will be dealt for prospects; and
- Any free-agent signing will be either hurt, coming off a down season, old, or all the above.
Predictably, the Rays’ biggest offseason additions each came with the “if healthy…” caveat. Catcher Wilson Ramos is expected to miss at least April while rehabbing from shredding his knee last September. He’s not likely to resume catching duties until later in the summer, and it’s possible most of his playing time comes at a designated hitter. That’ll be fine with the Rays should Ramos repeats last season’s effort -- he posted a career-best 123 OPS+. (It’s worth noting that recent signing Derek Norris, hoping for a rebound effort, should help the Rays ease Ramos back behind the plate.)
Meanwhile, Rasmus missed most of spring while recovering from offseason surgery to correct his hip and abdomen, and will begin the season on the DL as well. Unlike Ramos, Rasmus is coming off the worst season of his career, evidenced by his 76 OPS+, .149 ISO, and .206 batting average. A bounce-back season would seem likely, though his contact woes make him a legitimate attrition risk -- yes, at age-30.
If both Ramos and Rasmus can find a way to play like their normal selves -- and can find a way to appear in more than 200 games combined -- the Rays will be well-positioned to surprise. But there’s a legitimate chance that doesn’t come to pass. Such is life for the Rays when it comes to the free-agent market; even their big splashes require skepticism.
Will the Rays trade Longoria and Archer?
Probably not, for reasons we’ve covered before. Basically: Longoria and Chris Archer are more valuable to the Rays than any other team -- that’s because the Rays are the worst positioned team to buy wins. It’s hard to imagine any team delivering a package that would meet the Rays’ demands for either. As such, expect Longoria and Archer to remain in St. Pete for another season -- no matter how the Rays are playing at the trading deadline.
It’s more likely that the Rays would entertain trade offers for Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Colome. But again, that’s working with the assumption the Rays will be bad. There’s a chance they’re solid -- maybe even better than solid -- but it hinges on ...
Who are these guys?
The biggest unknown is Matt Duffy, the shortstop the Rays received in the Matt Moore payout. Since coming over from the San Francisco Giants, he’s had trouble staying on the field, appearing in 21 games following the trade. He’ll miss the start of this season. Is Duffy a legitimate starting shortstop, or was his rookie season a fluke? He’ll have to get healthy before he can provide an answer.
Another riddle is Mallex Smith, who was acquired in the Drew Smyly trade. An optimist looks at Smith and sees someone with elite defensive and baserunning chops, and a history of reaching base in the minors. A pessimist sees Sam Fuld 2.0 -- yes, a thrilling defender and baserunner, but also a poor hitter whose inability to make good contact leaves him as a reserve. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, though Smith’s first big-league taste suggested the latter.
The lead question also goes for Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson, Nick Franklin, and … well, basically every big-league player the Rays have added through trades in recent seasons. No wonder the Rays are a trendy pick to finish in last -- this team has a lot of uncertainty around it.
Reinforcements are en route
If there’s a bright side here -- besides the impressive, cost-effective core of Longoria, Archer, Kevin Kiermaier, and Blake Snell -- it’s that the farm system could offer help soon. Here’s those among MLB.com’s top 10 Rays prospects who are expected to reach the majors this season:
- No. 2 Brent Honeywell, RHP
- No. 3 Jose De Leon, RHP
- No. 4 Jake Bauers, 1B/OF
- No. 5 Casey Gillaspie, 1B
- No. 8 Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
- No. 9 Jacob Faria, RHP
None of those players are impact-level types -- the No. 1 prospect, shortstop Willy Adames, could theoretically sneak into the majors -- but the Rays should be better off with regards to depth. Will that be enough to see them return to the playoffs? Probably not. All the same, it should more for a more enjoyable, exciting season by the bay.
Probable lineup
- Corey Dickerson, DH
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF
- Evan Longoria, 3B
- Brad Miller, 2B
- Steven Souza, RF
- Derek Norris, C
- Tim Beckham, SS
- Logan Morrison, 1B
- Mallex Smith, LF
Bench: Jesus Sucre, C; Rickie Weeks Jr., 1B/OF; Nick Franklin, UTL; Peter Bourjos, OF
Probable rotation
- Chris Archer (R)
- Jake Odorizzi (R)
- Alex Cobb (R)
- Blake Snell (L)
- Matt Andriese (R)
Probable bullpen
Alex Colome should again close for the Rays. The rest of the bullpen is in flux. Tommy Hunter, Danny Farquhar, and Shawn Tolleson are veteran options who could serve in setup roles. Xavier Cedeno figures to be the only lefty in the ‘pen. There’s also Erasmo Ramirez and Chase Whitley, each of whom is capable of pitching multiple innings.
SportsLine projection: 74-88, last place in the American League East
