Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
The Tigers have been eliminated from playoff contention in September and that's an unfamiliar feeling these days. After four straight AL Central titles, the Tigers appear to be headed for a surprising last-place finish. In the midst of this, general manager Dave Dombrowski was shown the door while manager Brad Ausmus was reportedly going to be gone earlier this month only for us to recently find out that he'll be back next season.
Let's look both backward and forward.
What went right in 2015: Miguel Cabrera's still one of the best hitters on the planet while J.D. Martinez improved on his breakout 2014 campaign and is headed for a season with 40 homers and 100 RBI. Jose Iglesias came back from a lost season and showed no ill-effects (until he broke his finger, which was unrelated to his shin issues last season) while Ian Kinsler had one of his best seasons of his career.
On the mound, Justin Verlander has a 1.88 ERA in his last eight starts and David Price was excellent before being traded.
What went wrong in 2015: A lot.
We'll start with offseason pitching acquisitions Alfredo Simon (5.21 ERA) and Shane Greene (6.88 ERA). That's not how to round out a staff behind Price, Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and it's definitely not how to replace the spots once filled by Doug Fister (pre-2014) and Max Scherzer.
Injuries plagued the Tigers as well. Verlander battled issues, Cabrera hit the DL for the first time in his career and Victor Martinez dealt with his knees throughout the first half. When he did play, Martinez was predictably a far cry from what he was last season.
The midseason trades of Price, Joakim Soria and Yoenis Cespedes hurt the team in the short run, obviously, though the pending free agents landed good returns.
Finally, in something that's not much of a departure from year's past, the bullpen was a big problem, as was Ausmus' handling of it.
The Tigers' pitching staff as a whole ranks dead last in the AL in team ERA.
Tigers MVP: I'll go with J.D. Martinez, overtaking Cabrera due to Cabrera's DL stint.
Tigers LVP: The offseason pitching acquisitions, especially realizing the Tigers gave up Eugenio Suarez for Simon.
Pending free agents: OF Rajai Davis, C Alex Avila, SP Alfredo Simon, RP Tom Gorzelanny. Also, reliever Joe Nathan has a $10 million club option with a $1 million buyout. Given his poor performance with the Tigers teamed with his Tommy John surgery and there's no way they pick that option up.
2016 payroll commitments: Significant. They already have over $111 million in salary committed to Cabrera, Verlander, Kinsler, Sanchez and Victor Martinez with arbitration cases and pre-arbitration players in house bringing the estimated total to over $150 million. The opening-day payroll for this season was roughly $172 million, so it's feasible that they could add from outside the organization via free agency.
Biggest offseason decision: How to put together a contender without spending huge.
They probably can't increase payroll much more than where it's been the past two years -- otherwise they would've ponied up for Scherzer -- but they have too much money committed to the Cabrera-Verlander core to start a rebuild.
So the task at hand for new GM Al Avila is as follows:
- Rebuild the back of the rotation behind Verlander, Sanchez and youngster Daniel Norris.
- Put together a bullpen that doesn't suck.
- Upgrade left field.
- Hope that Victor Martinez bounces back while Verlander's bounce back maintains and there's natural improvement from younger guys like Nick Castellanos, Anthony Gose and James McCann.
This all needs to be done without spending big in free agency and the farm system isn't overly stocked with players that could land marquee pieces back in a trade.
Perhaps they can hit on a few cheaper free agents, but whatever they get won't be as good as Price and Cespedes and they were having trouble contending this season with those guys.
Then again, we know how badly owner Mike Ilitch wants to win and they've surprised us before (see Fielder, Prince) with a huge offseason signing. Maybe the losing will cause another drastic increase in payroll.
2016 will be better if ... the players already on the roster perform to their potential. Look, we already noted it, but getting whole seasons at their best from Victor Martinez, Verlander, Cabrera (his issue was only the injury), Iglesias, Sanchez and then getting improvement from the aforementioned younger guys would go a long way in turning this thing back around. Two mid-level additions from outside the organization with everyone staying healthy and playing to their potential would mean a winning ballclub again.
2016 will be worse if ... the roster doesn't get significantly deeper. Look, it's fun to live in this make-believe world above where everyone stays off the DL and plays better, but the reality is that Verlander, Cabrera and Kinsler are quickly approaching their decline phases while Victor Martinez is already there and has knees that will never stop bothering him. Given the state of the payroll and farm, it's hard to see things getting better before they get worse.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: We're having a very similar conversation around this time.
