Everyone wants to talk about the enormity of Rex Ryan making his first trip back to MetLife Stadium to face his old team, and while that storyline is fine and dandy, this week's Thursday Night Football contest between Bills (4-4) and Jets (5-3) is rife with compelling on-field storylines and one-on-one matchups in a rivalry game that has major playoff implications.
Here are the five advanced stats you have to know for this important AFC East clash.
1. Ground and pound
Ever since Ryan was hired by the Bills in January, the outspoken coach has preached the "ground and pound" offensive philosophy. Buffalo brought in the ideal offensive coordinator to implement that philosophy, former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who was handpicked by Ryan.
Despite having a few games in which it wasn't able to establish and stay as dedicated to the run as the coaching staff would have liked, overall, Buffalo's ground game has been a success in 2015.
On the other hand, with a stellar defensive line that added first-round pick Leonard Williams this season, the Jets' run defense has been as stingy as usual.
| Strength vs. strength | |
| Team unit | 10+ yards rushes (rank) |
| Bills offense | 33 (T-3rd) |
| Jets defense | 20 allowed (8th) |
| Team unit | 15+ yards rushes (rank) |
| Bills offense | 18 (1st) |
| Jets defense | 6 allowed (T-3rd) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |
The battle in the trenches between Buffalo's running game -- that features an array of lead blockers and New York's defensive front -- will be crucial. It's strength vs. strength. Going into this game, the Bills are fourth in the NFL with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. The Jets run defense has given up an average of 3.8 yards per carry, the seventh-best in football.
2. Deep-ball passing
While the Bills and Jets are both enamored with running the football -- New York is 6th in the league with 241 carries, Buffalo is 10th with 236 -- in today's NFL, most big plays happen through the air.
So, let's take a look at how Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick have fared on deep passes this season.
| Passes 20 yards or more | ||||
| Player | Comp. | Att. | Yards | TD/INT |
| Tyrod Taylor | 12 | 25 | 463 | 6/2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8 | 32 | 249 | 2/3 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | ||||
That's a sizable disparity. From a completion percentage angle, Taylor has been nearly twice as effective as Fitzpatrick on passes thrown 20 yards or more.
After a career of struggling with ball placement and touch on deep balls, Fitzpatrick was amazing down the field in 2014 with the Texans. He completed 20 of 38 attempts, good for a completion percentage of 52.6, which trailed only Matt Ryan in that category.
But so far in 2015, Fitzpatrick has regressed to his old ways when asked to let it rip.
3. Receivers vs. cornerbacks
What will Fitzpatrick and Taylor be up against when they drop back and quickly scan the field for their pass-catchers? A pair of shutdown defensive backs.
Here's where alpha corner Darrelle Revis and legit Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Ronald Darby rank in QB rating allowed at their position.
| Shutdown cornerbacks | ||||
| Rank | Player | Targets | Passes defended | QB rating allowed |
| 1 | Josh Norman | 51 | 6 | 30.5 |
| 2 | D. Rodgers-Cromartie | 42 | 1 | 35.2 |
| 3 | Darrelle Revis | 43 | 2 | 44 |
| 4 | Patrick Robinson | 23 | 1 | 45.9 |
| 5 | Aqib Talib | 39 | 3 | 48.9 |
| 6 | Logan Ryan | 47 | 2 | 51.1 |
| 7 | Adam Jones | 32 | 2 | 53.6 |
| 8 | Ronald Darby | 64 | 9 | 54.2 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | ||||
Darby's nine passes defended leads the league, and 14.0 percent of the throws in his direction have ended with a pass breakup, the highest percentage among that top 8.
Revis on the other hand, has been his typical, future Hall of Fame self this season, even as a 30-year-old. According to PFF, the "worst" statistical output he's allowed is five catches and 75 yards against the Colts in Week 2.
More specifically, here are two of the likely 1-on-1, receiver-vs.-cornerback matchups in this game. And, yeah, once again ... something has got to give.
| Corner vs. wideout | |||
| Pass-game matchup | Targets | Yards | QB rating |
| Darelle Revis | 43 | 253 | 44 |
| Sammy Watkins | 25 | 315 | 123.8 |
| Pass-game matchup | Targets | Yards | QB rating |
| Ronald Darby | 64 | 340 | 54.2 |
| Eric Decker | 51 | 472 | 138.7 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |||
The 138.7 QB rating Jets signal-callers have accumulated while throwing to Decker this season is the best in the NFL among wide receivers. The 123.8 rating Watkins has accounted for is currently the fourth-best in the league. When the Bills have the ball, it'll be surprising if Revis doesn't shadow Watkins. With Stephon Gilmore being the bigger, more experienced cornerback, expect to see him cover Brandon Marshall more frequently than Darby does.
4. Ground and pound's opposition
The Bills want to continue to effectively employ their ground-and-pound attack with a healthy backfield against the Jets. Buffalo's offensive line will be tasked with limiting the disruption of, arguably, the finest trio of interior defensive linemen in the league.
Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson -- the 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year -- and Williams have strikingly similar skill sets. They can win at the point of attack with their length and power as well as with their speed and exceptional athleticism.
Here's where they rank at their position. The overall PFF grade for defensive linemen is a sum of their pass-rush rating, run-stop rating and rating on plays that were negated by a penalty.
(In Todd Bowles' defense, each of these three players will line up at basically every defensive line spot, but PFF labels them as 3-4 defensive ends.)
| Green wall of New York | |
| Player | PFF grade (rank) |
| Muhammad Wilkerson | 23.9 (4th) |
| Leonard Williams | 14.0 (9th) |
| Sheldon Richardson | 6.8 (18th) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |
No other team has three defenders ranked in the Top 20 at the same position.
The only defensive line that can compare to the Jets is the Rams -- Aaron Donald is the No. 1-ranked defensive tackle, Nick Fairley is 10th and Michael Brockers is 22nd.
Buffalo's rookie right guard John Miller is the weak link on the Bills offensive line. His PFF grade of -19.0 is the lowest among 81 offensive guards; however, left guard Richie Incognito's overall grade of 22.8 is the second-highest among guards and left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood each rank in the Top 5 at their respective positions.
5. The impact of being healthy
We all figured the Bills offense would just be a game-managing supplement to their upper-echelon defense this season, and when a rash of injuries hit Buffalo's offense in late September and into early October, unsurprisingly, the offense had drastic issues.
But with Sammy Watkins, and pertaining to the ground game, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams both healthy, the Bills have had one of the most efficient offenses in football.
Here's how Buffalo's entire rushing offense has performed when McCoy and Williams have played in the same game compared to when the two dynamic runners haven't played together.
| Bills running game | |||
| Four games | Rushes | Rushing yards | Yards/carry |
| With McCoy, Williams | 133 | 730 | 5.48 |
| Without McCoy, Williams | 102 | 410 | 4.02 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | |||
Quite the difference.
The Bills have plenty of talent in the backfield and can boast an ideal thunder and lightning duo when McCoy and Williams are both available. Also, their presence makes read-option runs by Taylor more difficult to stop.
Prediction: Bills 27, Jets 20
If the Jets were healthier, they'd have been given a slight edge at home. But with Nick Mangold and Brandon Marshall banged-up, Antonio Cromartie ailing, injured members of the safety group and, maybe most importantly, a far-from-100-percent Ryan Fitzpatrick, I like the Bills to get an enormous win on the road in the division.
Fitzpatrick has had significant problems with Ryan's defenses in the past, and while he currently has two fine outside receivers that help him a great deal, the Bills' defense will keep New York's offense in relative check.
No, the Bills won't run for 266 yards against like they did a week ago against the Dolphins, but a steady helping of McCoy and Williams will make things easier for Taylor, Watkins and Co. in Buffalo's passing game.
This showdown should start as a defensive battle and end with Buffalo's offense making a few more big plays en route to victory.
