The New Orleans Pelicans square off against the San Antonio Spurs in a Western Conference tilt on Saturday. The Pelicans and Spurs are in the midst of a play-in chase, with San Antonio entering at 29-44 and New Orleans sporting a 31-42 record. The Pelicans are 17-20 at home and the Spurs are 15-21 on the road. Devin Vassell (Achilles), Lonnie Walker IV (back), Romeo Langford (hamstring) and Doug McDermott (ankle) are out for San Antonio. Brandon Ingram (hamstring) is listed as questionable for New Orleans, with Zion Williamson (foot) still out.
Caesars Sportsbook lists New Orleans as the 6.5-point home favorite for this 5 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 232.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Pelicans odds. Before making any Pelicans vs. Spurs picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 22 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 79-49 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Spurs vs. Pelicans spread: Pelicans -6.5
- Spurs vs. Pelicans over-under: 232.5 points
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: Pelicans -260, Spurs +210
- SA: The Spurs are 24-18-1 against the spread in conference games
- NO: The Pelicans are 20-23 against the spread in conference games
Why the Spurs can cover
San Antonio is adept on both ends of the floor, including top-tier marks in several defensive categories. The Spurs are creating 14.0 turnovers per game, a top-10 figure in the NBA, and San Antonio is above-average in steals (7.6 per game) and blocks (5.1 per game). The Spurs are in the top 10 in free-throw prevention, yielding only 20.8 attempts per game, and San Antonio is better than league average in assist allowed (23.9 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.7 per game).
On offense, San Antonio is elite in generating assists, leading the NBA with 28.0 per game. The Spurs are also in the top five in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.19), turnover rate (12.6 percent) and assist percentage (64.5 percent). The Spurs also swing the math in their favor on the offensive glass, securing 28.3 percent of missed shots and averaging more than 14 second-chance points per game. San Antonio also has an edge in transition, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA with 13.6 fast-break points per contest.
Why the Pelicans can cover
New Orleans is in the top tier of the NBA in several key categories. The Pelicans bludgeon opponents on the offensive glass, securing 30.1 percent of available rebounds after missed shots. New Orleans is also in the top five of the NBA in second-chance points, averaging 14.6 per game, and the Pelicans are in the top eight of the league in assist percentage (62.4 percent) and fast-break points (13.9 per game). New Orleans is in the top 10 of the NBA in free-throw creation, averaging 22.8 attempts per game, and the Pelicans are making 78.9 percent of those attempts.
The Pelicans rank above the NBA average in assists with 25.0 per game, and the Spurs are in the bottom tier on the defensive glass. On the opposite end, New Orleans is tremendous in defensive rebounding, securing 74.4 percent of missed shots by opponents. The Pelicans are also in the top eight of the NBA in second-chance points allowed (12.6 per game), fast-break points allowed (11.3 per game), and points allowed in the paint (45.0 per game). San Antonio is also in the bottom five of the NBA in free-throw creation, averaging fewer than 20 attempts per game.
How to make Pelicans vs. Spurs picks
The model is leaning under on the total, projecting 229 combined points. It's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Spurs vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.