Pitching Forecaster: Risky business with rookies

There are a number of watershed moments during a pitcher's season: getting geared up for opening day; getting over the dead arm somewhere in midseason and cranking it back up for the second half perhaps.

None are as important to Fantasy owners -- especially in Head-to-Head leagues -- than those ready to be at their best in crunch time down the stretch. For young arms, it is a question of whether they can endure. For the veterans, it is whether they have left enough in the tank.

We figure you have to trust your veteran aces are ready to go, assuming they are healthy. They have been through this before.

We bring this up, because the best rookie pitcher in Fantasy is reaching his career high in innings like so many other young arms this time of year: Tommy Hanson.

He is right at his career high in innings at 138 at this point. It could signal a decline, but we see so much good in him, even his residuals will make him a must-start in all leagues down the stretch. As long as the Braves stay in the race and don't decide to shut him down, of course.

Dealing with the case of Hanson, we noticed a disturbing trend brought on by the lack of healthy veterans in the major leagues right now. It is making finding reliable Fantasy starters real tough. Rookies are notoriously inconsistent.

There are currently 23 rookie starters filling up 33 percent of the 70 total five-man rotation spots in the AL: Brian Matusz, Orioles; Chris Tillman, Orioles; David Hernandez, Orioles; Jason Berken, Orioles; Junichi Tazawa, Red Sox; David Huff, Indians; Rick Porcello, Tigers; Sean O'Sullivan, Angels; Trevor Bell, Angels; Anthony Swarzak, Twins; Brett Anderson, Athletics; Trevor Cahill, Athletics; Vin Mazzaro, Athletics; Doug Fister, Mariners; Luke French, Mariners; David Price, Rays; Jeff Niemann, Rays; Derek Holland, Rangers; Tommy Hunter, Rangers; Ricky Romero, Blue Jays; Scott Richmond, Blue Jays; Marc Rzepcynski, Blue Jays and Brett Cecil, Blue Jays.

The percentage is far less pronounced in the NL, but it is still noteworthy. There are currently 17 rookie starters filling up 21 percent of the 80 total rotation spots in the NL: Hanson, Braves; Kenshin Kawakami, Braves; Randy Wells, Cubs; Jeff Samardzija, Cubs; Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies; Sean West, Marlins; Bud Norris, Astros; Bobby Parnell, Mets; J.A. Happ, Phillies; Mat Latos, Padres; Clayton Richard, Padres; Cesar Carrillo, Padres; Joe Martinez, Giants; Mitchell Boggs, Cardinals; Craig Stammen, Nationals; Garrett Mock, Nationals and J.D. Martin, Nationals.

All told, that's 40 rookie starters filling up 27 percent of the 150 major league rotation spots. That is an amazing figure.

No wonder it is mid-August that separates the men from the boys. Well, sort of. The fresh from the banged up, at least.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Potential two-start SPs for Week 20
Pitcher	TM	Own	Start
Tim Lincecum	SF	98	93
Josh Beckett	BOS	98	92
Felix Hernandez	SEA	98	89
Chris Carpenter	STL	96	89
A.J. Burnett	NYY	97	87
Ricky Nolasco	FLA	95	81
Tommy Hanson	ATL	89	77
Derek Lowe	ATL	95	75
Mark Buehrle	CHW	94	66
Max Scherzer	ARI	91	62
Ryan Dempster	CHC	93	55
David Price	TB	87	52
Chad Billingsley	LA	97	51
Ervin Santana	ANA	83	45
Scott Feldman	TEX	64	38
Tommy Hunter	TEX	54	36
Bud Norris	HOU	53	32
Jon Garland	ARI	45	26
Francisco Liriano	MIN	72	26
Armando Galarraga	DET	41	17
Brian Bannister	KC	35	17
Fausto Carmona	CLE	34	14
Kevin Correia	SD	29	14
Oliver Perez	NYM	27	13
Pedro Martinez	PHI	49	12
Scott Richmond	TOR	37	11
Livan Hernandez	NYM	19	9
Homer Bailey	CIN	15	5
David Hernandez	BAL	7	4
Carlos Villanueva	MIL	7	4
Vin Mazzaro	OAK	9	3
Kevin Hart	PIT	5	3
Trevor Bell	ANA	3	2
Jeff Samardzija	CHC	8	2
Mitchell Boggs	STL	3	2
Joe Martinez	SF	2	1
Craig Stammen	WAS	3	1
Cesar Carrillo	SD	1	0
Jason Berken	BAL	1	0

Week 20 two-starter(s): Scherzer and Garland. They figure to both be advisable options after making starts Tuesday and Wednesday vs. the Mets.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. Parker has been shut down. If the D-Backs need a starter, it could be Daniel Cabrera. Remember him?

Atlanta Braves

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hanson and Lowe. They figure to be must-start options after pitching Tuesday and Wednesday vs. the Nationals.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Jorge Campillo (shoulder, out for the season). Hudson had a non-throwing related setback that makes him a September returnee. He might need four more rehab starts.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jo-Jo Reyes. The depth will come from a returning Hudson or reliever Kris Medlen first. We don't see the Braves needing rotation help, though.

Baltimore Orioles

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hernandez and Berken. They figure to be questionable options, especially since Berken could lose his rotation spot to a pending DL return.
Starters on the DL: Brad Bergesen (leg), Koji Uehara (shoulder), Rich J. Hill (shoulder, out for the season) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season). Bergesen was going to return Aug. 14 but now he will get a rehab start. Berken could be pitching for his rotation spot Wednesday.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton and Brandon Erbe. Arrieta and Patton haven't been great in Triple-A, while Erbe has been scorching in Double-A. We don't see any of them being more than a spot start candidate come mid-September. They are 2010 rotation competitors, though.

Boston Red Sox

Week 20 two-starter(s): Beckett. He is a must-start in all leagues, barring injury Wednesday vs. the Tigers.
Starters on the DL: Tim Wakefield (back) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder). Wakefield could return at the end of next week, but track his progress through the weekend before considering him.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Bowden. His last start was bad, so we fully expect the Red Sox to look at Tazawa this week, Wakefield perhaps next and then Dice-K come September before considering Bowden.

Chicago Cubs

Week 20 two-starter(s): Dempster and TBD, likely Lilly. Dempster figures to be an advisable option, while the pending DL returns below figures to bounce Samardzija back to the bullpen.
Starters on the DL: Carlos Zambrano (back), Ted Lilly (shoulder, knee). Zambrano hopes to return from the DL early next week, while Lilly makes a rehab start Wednesday that could position him for a Monday return as a two-start pitcher. Track his progress closely Wednesday. He could be a sleeper or even an advisable two-start pitcher.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Sean Marshall remains stuck in the Pitch-22, but the returns of Zambrano and Lilly next week figure to send Gorzelanny and Samardzija back to the bullpen, too.

Chicago White Sox

Mark Buehrle
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jose A. Contreras
D.J. Carrasco will be skipped until Aug. 18

Week 20 two-starter(s): Buehrle. He figures to be a must-start option in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jake Peavy (ankle) and Bartolo Colon (elbow, might be out for the season). Peavy will need at least two, perhaps three rehab starts, so don't consider him an option until after Fantasy Week 20 (Aug. 17-23). Colon is AWOL again and the White Sox are considering him all but done for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Freddy An. Garcia and Daniel Hudson. Hudson is now their top pitching prospect, but he was torched in his Triple-A debut Sunday after scorching through Double-A (7-0, 1.60). Garcia won't be a candidate for Aug. 18, but the White Sox seem to believe he will be ready for a call-up before Peavy is ready to come off the DL. We don't see much value with the veteran Garcia, though.

Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto (questionable, hip)
Bronson Arroyo
Justin Lehr
Homer Bailey

Week 20 two-starter(s): Bailey. He figures to be a questionable to risky option after his start Wednesday at St. Louis.
Starters on the DL: Micah Owings (shoulder) and Edinson Volquez (elbow, out for the season). Owings started a rehab assignment Monday and could be a candidate to return before the end of Fantasy Week 20 (Aug. 17-23). Track his progress through the weekend for a potential return. Cueto says he is fine after leaving his Monday start early.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Maloney. His numbers in Triple-A (8-8, 2.71) figure to earn him another look in September.

Cleveland Indians

Week 20 two-starter(s): Carmona. He could be an advisable option with a quality start Wednesday vs. Texas.
Starters on the DL: Scott Lewis (elbow), Jake Westbrook (elbow, out for the season) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season). Westbrook has been shut down for the season and Lewis might follow suit soon, too.
Starters to watch in the minors: Carlos Carrasco, Hector Rondon, Charles Lofgren and Jeanmar Gomez. That is some Triple-A rotation, but anyone that comes up would initially be a high-risk AL-only option.

Colorado Rockies

Week 20 two-starter(s): Jimenez. He figures to be a must-start with a quality outing Wednesday vs. the Pirates.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Christian Friedrich and Greg Smith. Jhoulys Chacin gets his first start in place of Cook, who is expected back Saturday, while Franklin Morales is also up in relief. Friedrich could be hotly anticipated in September, but we don't see the Rockies using a starter that isn't already in the majors at this point.

Detroit Tigers

Week 20 two-starter(s): Galarraga. He is a sleeper for any format with a quality outing at Boston on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder), Nate Robertson (elbow) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety). Bonderman and Robertson are on rehab assignments, but they are targeting returns as relievers. Willis likely can be ruled out of any return this season now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brooks Brown and Alfredo Figaro. Neither of these guys are real long-term candidates. The Tigers are more likely to add rotation help via a waiver deal.

Florida Marlins

Week 20 two-starter(s): Nolasco. He is likely a must-start option with a quality effort Wednesday vs. the Astros.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder). He has begun a rehab assignment, but we really don't expect much from his at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andrew Miller. Miller has work to do, but West could hand the job to Miller before the lefty even truly deserves a recall. Keep him stashed.

Houston Astros

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Mike Hampton
Bud Norris
Brian Moehler

Week 20 two-starter(s): Norris. The hype figures to catch up and make him an advisable option after his start Wednesday at Florida.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. They have called up their top prospect Norris, and we don't see much upside with the rest of their farm system's starters.

Kansas City Royals

Week 20 two-starter(s): Bannister. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday at Minnesota.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Bruce Chen is getting removed for Meche's return this week, but he could also be elevated back into the rotation is Davies struggles. Davies will be pitching for his rotation spot every time out.

Los Angeles Angels

Week 20 two-starter(s): Santana and Bell. Santana is advisable, albeit with risk due to his inconsistency. We did not see a complete-game shutout coming Tuesday. Bell is a rookie making his major league debut, but he could prove to be a sleeper with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Rays.
Starters on the DL: Joe Saunders (shoulder), Dustin Moseley (elbow). It is getting late fast, so we cannot expect you to get any use out of these guys before the end of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden and Trevor Reckling. Reckling is emerging as their top pitching prospect and could be a candidate to fill a back-end rotation spot if they decide to move away from O'Sullivan or Bell, who makes his major league debut Wednesday.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley (questionable, hamstring)
Clayton Kershaw
Randy Wolf
Hiroki Kuroda
TBD

Week 20 two-starter(s): Perhaps Billingsley and Eric Stults. Billingsley hopes to return to the rotation next Monday as a two-start pitcher, while Stults figures to be skipped No. 5 starter until the next time that turn comes up next Tuesday. The Dodgers figure to acquire a starter before then, likely Vicente Padilla. Consider Padilla a two-start sleeper, too, perhaps.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom. James McDonald is in middle relief and Lindblom could head there, too, down the stretch.

Milwaukee Brewers

Week 20 two-starter(s): Perhaps Villanueva. He is currently on schedule to start Monday in a six-game week. Potential DL returns below could change plans, though.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Suppan (oblique) and Dave Bush (shoulder). They had setbacks last weekend, but they could get rehab starts before the end of the week and could be candidates to return next week, perhaps one of them as a two-start pitcher.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. The Brewers are desperately trying to upgrade their rotation. They don't have a pitching prospect worth tracking for a call-up at this point.

Minnesota Twins

Week 20 two-starter(s): Liriano and perhaps Swarzak. The Twins would prefer both of these guys get removed from the rotation, but they have little choice with them right now. Consider them questionable two-start options, barring an outstanding outing Wednesday or Thursday vs. the Royals.
Starters on the DL: Kevin Slowey (wrist, out for the season) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Kevin Mulvey. He struggled in relief, so it will be hard to trust him or even anticipate a call-up to start at this point. Glen Perkins (shoulder) is banged up and relegated to relief for the time being, too.

New York Mets

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hernandez and Perez. They figure to be questionable options, although Perez is a sleeper to use in mixed formats with a quality start Wednesday at Arizona.
Starters on the DL: John Maine (shoulder, might be out for the season), Fernando Nieve (quadriceps, might be out for the season) and Jonathon Niese (hamstring, out for the season). Maine and Nieve might not be healthy before the end of the season at this point. Niese is definitely out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Holt. He is intriguing long term, but we don't see him getting a look before September, if at all.

New York Yankees

Week 20 two-starter(s): Burnett. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa. Phil Hughes is now a setup man, Kennedy is still on the DL after surgery -- although he plans to pitch before the end of the minor league season -- and Igawa will never get a chance with the Yankees again. There is no intrigue for this season here at this point. Alfredo Aceves (back), Chad Gaudin and Russ Ortiz will provide any rotation depth they might need. Gaudin reportedly will make a spot start Sunday for Chamberlain, a day after Mitre starts. Gaudin could replace Mitre in the rotation with a solid effort Sunday. Track his and Mitre's progress through the weekend.

Oakland Athletics

Week 20 two-starter(s): Mazzaro. He is currently slated to start Monday, but that could be moved back with a pending return of one of their top two DL guys. Mazzaro, Cahill or one of the DL returnees would all be a questionable two-start pticher option. If the A's go with a six-man rotation with two DL returnees, they won't have a two-start pitcher.
Starters on the DL: Dallas Braden (foot), Justin Duchscherer (elbow) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). The A's have tossed around the idea of a six-man rotation, with Duchscherer returning as soon as this week. Braden could be brough back early next week.
Starters to watch in the minors: James J. Simmons. His Triple-A numbers aren't as good as his long-term prospects right now. We don't see him getting a call-up to start at this point.

Philadelphia Phillies

Week 20 two-starter(s): Martinez. He returns to the rotation Wednesday and would be on target to be a two-start sleeper. Watch his start closely. It won't take much for the Phillies to go back to their veteran lefty Jamie Moyer out of long relief.
Starters on the DL: Brett Myers (hip) and Antonio Bastardo (shoulder).
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery and Andrew Carpenter. Kyle Kendrick is up in long relief, so he won't be a spot starter candidate. Drabek is the real prize to watch at this point. But none of these guys figure to be needed in the majors this season, especially with Moyer back in the bullpen as depth, too.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hart. He is a questionable option unless he really dazzles Wednesday at Colorado.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He is on a rehab assignment, but we have to figure he returns in the bullpen at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Timothy Alderson, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. Jeff Karstens is working in long relief, but Alderson or even Lincoln are the real potential impact pitchers in the Pirates' system now. Alderson was a steal at the trade deadline from the Giants, but we doubt the Pirates will be rushing him to the majors before the end of the season. Alderson, though, has been lights out in his two starts after the deal: 2-0, 0.77, tossing six hitless innings last time out.

San Diego Padres

Week 20 two-starter(s): Correia and Carrillo. They are sleepers for deeper leagues with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday at Milwaukee.
Starters on the DL: Chris R. Young (shoulder), Cha Seung Baek (elbow, out for the season) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season). Young won't be back before mid-September, if at all this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda and Nick Schmidt. Carrillo gets the nod in his debut Wednesday. He is an elite pitching prospect who has finally come full circle after Tommy John surgery.

San Francisco Giants

Week 20 two-starter(s): Martinez and Lincecum. Martinez got knocked around Tuesday and is a risky option. Lincecum is a must-start, regardless.
Starters on the DL: Randy Johnson (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season). Johnson might be done for his career.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Pucetas. Bumgarner has proven more human of late. Had he not, he might have been in the majors already. Pucetas (10-3, 3.74 in Triple-A) will get a look before Bumgarner does down the stretch. We think both will have their looks, though.

Seattle Mariners

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hernandez. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Erik Bedard (shoulder), Carlos Silva (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season). Bedard doesn't look like he is anything more than a September returnee at this point. You have to wonder if he will wind up a surgical candidate amid all his shoulder woes.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brandon Morrow. Morrow has been forced to wait until the M's get a look at Fister, but Morrow has strung two strong starts together and could be a candidate to return the next time Fister's turn comes up Sunday. Watch Fister's start closely.

St. Louis Cardinals

Week 20 two-starter(s): Carpenter and Boggs. Carpenter is a must-start in all leagues, while Boggs is risky after taking a loss Tuesday vs. the Reds.
Starters on the DL: Todd Wellemeyer (elbow), Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season). Wellemeyer's struggles might be explained by his sore elbow now. We cannot be sure he will be a factor before the end of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: P.J. Walters. The Cardinals have Brad Thompson in long relief, but Boggs came off his 10-day option to Triple-A Tuesday night. Boggs gets a few cracks to establish himself as the No. 5 starter, although he could be skipped to keep the top five Cards starters on regular rest here on out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 20 two-starter(s): Price. He was looking like a must-start in all leagues, but his start Tuesday at the Angels makes him more of a questionable option. He just cannot seem to find consistency.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andy Sonnanstine and Wade Davis. Sonnanstine is 6 for 6 in quality starts back in Triple-A since his demotion. He will be great offseason trade bait, but hopefully they get more than they got for Jackson from the Tigers. Davis (9-7, 3.38, .233 batting-average against) could be an interesting contributor in relief down the stretch.

Texas Rangers

Week 20 two-starter(s): Hunter and Feldman. They are sleepers for deeper leagues with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday at Cleveland.
Starters on the DL: Brandon McCarthy (shoulder), Matt Harrison (shoulder, out for the season) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season). McCarthy was brutally bad in his one rehab start. He isn't close at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Main and Kasey Kiker. Neftali Feliz is working in relief, but he, McCarthy or a trade acquisition are more likely rotation replacement options.

Toronto Blue Jays

Roy Halladay
Ricky Romero
Scott Richmond
Brett Cecil (knee, out until at least Aug. 20) ... Brian Tallet will fill in
Marc Rzepczynski

Week 20 two-starter(s): Richmond. He was decent Tuesday night against the Yankees and is a decent sleeper in deeper mixed leagues at this point.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow might be out for the season), Bobby Ray (shoulder), Dustin McGowan (shoulder/knee, out for the season), and Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season). They have shut down McGowan and might be close to shutting down Ray and Marcum now, too. Don't look here for Fantasy value.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills and David Purcey. They could be options come September, but they will be high-risk AL-only options.

Washington Nationals

Week 20 two-starter(s): Stammen. He figures to be a risky option even if he is quality at Atlanta on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Jordan Zimmermann (elbow, out for the season) and Scott Olsen (shoulder, out for the season). Zimmermann might need Tommy John surgery, which would knock him out until 2011. Ouch!
Starters to watch in the minors: Shairon Martis, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg (still unsigned). Strasburg has to sign before Aug. 19, so it could be a big week of news for him. He won't arrive unless as a token September call-up, though.

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