Pitching Forecaster: Some rotations starting over

The trade deadline has come and gone -- with the big bird, Roy Halladay, still flapping his wing for the Blue Jays -- but the fallout continues to impact Fantasy. Some elite prospects are serving as Aug. 1 call-ups, some new arms are getting chances and some might still be pitching for a deal before September.

Here are the top risers among pitchers after the Aug. 1 shakeup:

Jake Peavy, SP, White Sox

Peavy went from potentially being shut down for the season to joining a contender's rotation, perhaps by the end of August. It gives him outstanding value in mixed leagues again. The good news is his injury is with his ankle, as opposed to his elbow, forearm, biceps, triceps, shoulder or back. There are plenty of hurdles to cross, but if you made an aggressive buy-low deal for Peavy in the past month, you have scored a potential coup in the season's final five weeks. There are just three to four weeks to wait, assuming he has no setbacks.

Bud Norris, SP, Astros

This is an addition by no addition. The Astros didn't get a starter before the deadline and immediately turned to their top pitching prospect, who went out and shutout the Albert Pujols-led Cardinals for seven innings on two hits in his first start. Norris is a solid addition in any league immediately, especially since he announced himself ready to win in the major leagues very quickly. He is owned in only 25 percent of leagues, but he warrants being owned in more leagues than fellow prospect Mat Latos (68 percent) in San Diego. Norris might not be a talent on Latos' level, but he has a potential contender to pitch for.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians

Carmona is a posterchild for the cynics that believe pitchers with a low strikeout rate cannot be consistent in the major leagues. But that talent that once made him the Fantasy surprise of 2007 (19-8, 3.06) is still there. He is still just 25 years old. And the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philly gives Carmona his rotation spot back in Cleveland. He won't be a big winner on that out-of-contention team, but he is a nice sleeper in deeper leagues if you need a stopgap.

Justin Masterson, RP, Indians

More Indians to buy? Aren't they terrible? Yes, but Masterson was stuck in the Pitch-22 with the Red Sox and will be just a couple more relief outings from getting get a full-time rotation spot for the first time. His ownership has doubled on CBSSports.com, 16 percent to 32, and it will continue to rise once he joins the rotation and becomes useful in deeper mixed leagues.

Jim R. Johnson, RP, Orioles

The expected next closer in Baltimore saw his ownership rise from 2 percent to 27, the biggest rise among all players on CBSSports.com this week. The problem is Johnson has been struggling (5.91 ERA in July and 9.00 ERA in August). Danys Baez and Chris Ray, both former closers and Tommy John surgery returnees this spring, are pitching better. Baez could share duties with Johnson for the short term, while Ray should eventually regain that role long term.

Tom Gorzelanny, SP, Cubs

Very rarely does a minor league arm get traded at the deadline and become a rotation member with a contending team. He will have value in Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16) as a two-start pitcher. A 2.48 ERA and .228 batting-average against in 15 Triple-A starts suggest he could be a winner before Ted Lilly (knee) returns no sooner than Aug. 19. Gorzelanny could be a winner for the Cubs long term, but assuming Lilly is healthy, he will be sent back in the bullpen for Fantasy Week 20 (Aug. 17-23).

Aaron Poreda, SP, Padres

The White Sox never really seem inclined to give Poreda a chance, but his mid-90s heat could make him a potential sleeper for NL-only leagues come September. He is an elite pitching prospect with a great arm and a potentially great pitcher's park to work in at Petco Park in San Diego. He wasn't going to start for the White Sox this season, but we think he will with the rebuilding Padres.

Clayton Richard, SP, Padres

Speaking of a San Diego starter with an opportunity before him, Richard goes from potentially in the White Sox's bullpen to the Padres' rotation without a challenge. He might be merely an NL-only option, but at least he no longer has Ozzie Guillen threatening to hold him back. There was no reason Richard was declared headed to the White Sox's bullpen after his clutch two-start week before the trade deadline.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Potential two-start SPs for Week 19
Pitcher	TM	Start %	Own %
Roy Halladay	TOR	98	95
Rich Harden	CHC	96	82
Edwin Jackson	DET	94	77
Matt Garza	TB	96	75
Gavin Floyd	CHW	94	71
Joba Chamberlain	NYY	95	71
J.A. Happ	PHI	87	65
Johnny Cueto	CIN	88	48
Chris Volstad	FLA	73	47
Jorge De La Rosa	COL	73	46
Aaron Cook	COL	78	44
Ervin Santana	ANA	83	40
Francisco Liriano	MIN	80	33
Brad Penny	BOS	62	32
Dallas Braden	OAK	60	30
Rick Porcello	DET	59	28
John Lannan	WAS	46	28
Kyle Lohse	STL	56	28
Jonathan O. Sanchez	SF	47	27
Doug Davis	ARI	45	26
John Smoltz	BOS	63	20
Jason Schmidt	LA	37	18
Ross Ohlendorf	PIT	27	17
Braden Looper	MIL	27	13
Chad Gaudin	SD	25	13
Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	26	10
Vicente Padilla	TEX	19	10
Rick VandenHurk	FLA	16	10
Jonathon Niese	NYM	21	9
Tom Gorzelanny	CHC	6	4
Luke French	SEA	6	3
Jason M. Vargas	SEA	5	2
Kyle Davies	KC	8	2
Aaron Laffey	CLE	5	2
Sergio Mitre	NYY	9	2
Justin Lehr	CIN	1	0

Week 19 two-starter(s): Davis. He could prove to be a sleeper with a solid effort Wednesday at Pittsburgh.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. He is around 20 innings from his career high, so he could be shut down before the end of the season to save innings on his 20-year-old arm.

Atlanta Braves

Week 19 two-starter(s): None. The Braves have a five-game week coming up and they don't figure to skip Kawakami.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Jorge Campillo (shoulder, out for the season). Hudson had a setback that wasn't elbow related, but he might not arrive before Aug. 20 as expected.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jo-Jo Reyes. The depth will come from a returning Hudson or reliever Kris Medlen first. We don't see the Braves needing rotation help, though.

Baltimore Orioles

Week 19 two-starter(s): Guthrie. He is a questionable option, even with a quality start Wednesday at Detroit. With his struggles, don't count on it.
Starters on the DL: Brad Bergesen (leg), Koji Uehara (shoulder), Rich J. Hill (shoulder, out for the season) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season). Bergesen is due back Aug. 14, perhaps replacing Berken in the rotation. Uehara is merely hoping to return in September and it might be as a reliever.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton and Brandon Erbe. So much for Matusz being a September call-up. It will be interesting to see if he can outperform Tillman here on out.

Boston Red Sox

Week 19 two-starter(s): Penny and Smoltz. They could be sleepers with solid outings Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Starters on the DL: Tim Wakefield (back) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder). Wakefield is closer, but nothing is imminent at this point. Dice-K is no better than September.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa. Bowden and Tazawa might be September call-ups as relievers, but a stopgap option is Penny or Smoltz move to the bullpen before Wakefield or Dice-K are ready. Bowden (2.96 ERA) and Tazawa (2.55 ERA) look plenty ready.

Chicago Cubs

Week 19 two-starter(s): Gorzelanny and Harden. Gorzelanny could prove to be a sleeper, while Harden is likely advisable in most formats, despite the tough first matchup vs. the Phillies.
Starters on the DL: Ted Lilly (shoulder, knee). He hopes to get a rehab start Aug. 14, which won't get him back in time for Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16).
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Jeff Samardzija and Sean Marshall are stuck in the Pitch-22 (good enough to start, but too valuable in relief). They won't be considered options until at least September, if at all.

Chicago White Sox

Mark Buehrle
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jose A. Contreras
D.J. Carrasco will be skipped whenever possible

Week 19 two-starter(s): Floyd and perhaps Danks. They figure to be advisable options even as one-starters. The White Sox have just six games in Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16), but GM Ken Williams expects the White Sox will be skipping their No. 5 starter whenever possible until Peavy can come off the DL.
Starters on the DL: Jake Peavy (ankle) and Bartolo Colon (elbow). Peavy is throwing again and could be a candidate to return in late August, according to the GM. Colon isn't expected to be ready as soon as Peavy and is therefore worthless right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Daniel Hudson. Time to get him added to the CBSSports.com database. He could be a No. 5 starter candidate before Peavy can return. Hudson has a 6-0 record and a 1.79 ERA in his eight Double-A starts. He has not allowed a run since the All-Star break. Take that flier as soon as it is available in your league.

Cincinnati Reds

Week 19 two-starter(s): Cueto and Lehr. Cueto has been brutal and might be as risky as Lehr is in any league right now.
Starters on the DL: Micah Owings (shoulder) and Edinson Volquez (elbow, out for the season). Owings is throwing but not yet ready to start a rehab assignment.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Maloney. He has a 2.72 ERA in Triple-A, but it is his 6.11 ERA in three Reds starts that keeps him from being a call-up right now.

Cleveland Indians

Week 19 two-starter(s): Perhaps Laffey. He figures to be a questionable to risky option even in the deepest of AL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow), Scott Lewis (elbow) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season). Westbrook is restarting his rehab assignment, which could make him a September candidate. Lewis might be held out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Carlos Carrasco, Hector Rondon, Charles Lofgren and Jeanmar Gomez. Recently acquired reliever Justin Masterson will make a couple more relief appearances before he joins the rotation. That could happen in Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16) and make him a sleeper in deeper mixed leagues. Carrasco figures to be the closest of the Indians' starting pitching prospects right now. We would be surprised to see each of these guys get a look before the end of the year as the Indians retool for 2010 and beyond.

Colorado Rockies

Week 19 two-starter(s): De La Rosa and Cook. They are nice sleepers for mixed leagues with another quality start Wednesday and Thursday at Philadelphia.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Christian Friedrich and Greg Smith. Jhoulys Chacin and Franklin Morales are up in relief. Friedrich is ready to move to Double-A, according to reports, so he could be a spot starter candidate in early September -- especially if the Rockies are in the hunt and need a No. 6 starter or a No. 5 replacement. Chacin and Morales will compete for rotation spots next spring.

Detroit Tigers

Week 19 two-starter(s): Jackson and Porcello. They could prove to be advisable options with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Orioles.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety). Bonderman could be a factor before the end of August, but he might be brought back in relief if the Tigers' rotation stays steady.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brooks Brown, Chris Lambert and Alfredo Figaro. None of these guys are real long-term candidates. The Tigers are more likely to add rotation help via a waiver deal.

Florida Marlins

Week 19 two-starter(s): VandenHurk and Volstad. The rookies are sleepers for deeper leagues at this point.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder). He has begun a rehab assignment, but we really don't expect much from his at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andrew Miller and Sean West. West is doing a little better among the two and could be a candidate to be the No. 5 starter this Friday at Philadelphia. Miller needs some more time at this point.

Houston Astros

Roy Oswalt (back, questionable) or Felipe Paulino
Wandy Rodriguez (hamsting, questionable)
Mike Hampton
Bud Norris
Brian Moehler

Week 19 two-starter(s): Perhaps Oswalt or Moehler. Oswalt could be headed for the DL, but if not, he could be a two-start returnee in Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16). Consider him a risk. Moehler is a sleeper in deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Giants.
Starters on the DL: None. But Oswalt and Rodriguez could be candidates to head there.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. They have called up their top prospect Norris, so we don't see much upside with their farm-system's starters.

Kansas City Royals

Week 19 two-starter(s): Davies. He could be a sleeper in deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Mariners.
Starters on the DL: Gil Meche (back). Meche has begun a rehab assignment and could return as soon as this weekend. Track his progress through the weekend before considering him for Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16).
Starters to watch in the minors: None. The return of Davies and pending return of Meche make it unlikely the Royals go to the well on anyone else from the system before the end of the season.

Los Angeles Angels

John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Ervin Santana
Joe Saunders
TBD, likely Sean O'Sullivan, if not then Matt Palmer

Week 19 two-starter(s): Santana. He could be an advisable option if he can post a quality start Wednesday at the White Sox.
Starters on the DL: Dustin Moseley (elbow). He could be approaching the point of no return. Ignore him at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden, Trevor Bell and Trevor Reckling. We think the Angels are done going to their prospects, especially if they extend their lead in the AL West.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Week 19 two-starter(s): Schmidt. He could be a sleeper in deeper leagues with another quality start Wednesday vs. the Brewers. A day off in Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16) could allow him to be skipped, though.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom and Eric Stults. James McDonald is in middle relief and Lindblom could head there, too, down the stretch.

Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo
Braden Looper
Manny Parra
Mike Burns
vacant, but likely Carlos Villanueva getting skipped whenever possible

Week 19 two-starter(s): Looper. He could prove to be a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday at the Dodgers.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Suppan (oblique) and Dave Bush (shoulder). They won't be ready until after Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16) at least. Keep them stashed in deeper NL-only formats.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. The Brewers are desperately trying to upgrade their rotation. They don't have a pitching prospect worth tracking for a call-up at this point.

Minnesota Twins

Week 19 two-starter(s): Liriano. He could prove to be advisable if he proves healthy and effective Wednesday at Cleveland.
Starters on the DL: Kevin Slowey (wrist, out for the season) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Kevin Mulvey. He struggled in relief, so it will be hard to trust him or even anticipate a call-up to start at this point.

New York Mets

Week 19 two-starter(s): Niese. He could prove to be a sleeper if he posts a quality start Wednesday vs. the Cardinals.
Starters on the DL: John Maine (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Fernando Nieve (quadriceps).
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Holt and Tobi Stoner. Holt is intriguing long term, but we don't see him getting a look before September just yet.

New York Yankees

Week 19 two-starter(s): Mitre and Chamberlain. Mitre could be a sleeper, while Chamberlain could be a must-start option, if they post quality starts Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa. Phil Hughes is now a setup man, Kennedy is still on the DL after surgery -- although he plans to pitch before the end of the minor league season -- and Igawa will never get a chance with the Yankees again. There is no intrigue for this season here at this point.

Oakland Athletics

Week 19 two-starter(s): Braden. The staff ace is a sleeper for mixed leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Rangers.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). Duke had a setback and still might have to return in relief. The A's have tossed around the idea of a six-man rotation, though.
Starters to watch in the minors: James J. Simmons. His Triple-A numbers aren't as good as his long-term prospects right now. We don't see him getting a call-up to start at this point.

Philadelphia Phillies

Week 19 two-starter(s): Perhaps Happ. The Phillies are considering sending Happ back to the bullpen for some reason, so his turn next Tuesday is in doubt right now.
Starters on the DL: Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers (hip) and Antonio Bastardo (shoulder). Martinez might make one last rehab start before a return for a two-start Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16). Consider him risky and best left for NL-only leagues if he does come back this soon.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery and Andrew Carpenter. Kyle Kendrick is up in long relief, so he won't be a spot starter candidate. Drabek is the real prize to watch at this point.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 19 two-starter(s): Ohlendorf. He figures to be a questionable option, even with a quality start Wednesday vs. the D-Backs.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He is on a rehab assignment, but we have to figure he returns in the bullpen at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Timothy Alderson, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. Jeff Karstens is working in long relief, but Alderson or even Lincoln are the real potential impact pitchers in the Pirates' system now. Alderson was a steal at the trade deadline from the Giants, but we doubt the Pirates will be rushing him to the majors before the end of the season.

San Diego Padres

Week 19 two-starter(s): Gaudin. He is a questionable option even with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Braves.
Starters on the DL: Chris R. Young (shoulder), Cha Seung Baek (elbow, out for the season) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season). Young won't be back before September, if at all this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda, Cesar Carrillo and Nick Schmidt. Poreda and Carrillo are solid long-term keeper prospects who could get a look in San Diego's rotation before the end of the season. Save for Latos, they have more raw talent than almost everyone in the Padres' current rotation.

San Francisco Giants

Week 19 two-starter(s): Sanchez. He is a great sleeper for mixed leagues after quality start Tuesday at Houston.
Starters on the DL: Joe Martinez (head), Randy Johnson (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season). Johnson is getting good reports on his health, but we still don't see him returning before mid-August at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner and Kevin Pucetas. Bumgarner had his opening as he turns 20, but the Giants are sticking with older prospects as the leading No. 5 starter candidates. We are still convinced Bumgarner can and will arrive before the end of the season, especially if the Giants remain in the wild-card race. Pucetas will have to wait his turn behind Martinez for a couple of turns at least.

Seattle Mariners

Week 19 two-starter(s): French and Vargas. They are likely at best questionable options in mixed leagues even with outstanding starts Wednesday and Thursday at the Royals.
Starters on the DL: Erik Bedard (shoulder), Carlos Silva (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season). Bedard doesn't look like he is anything more than a September returnee at this point. You have to wonder if he will wind up a surgical candidate amid all his shoulder woes.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brandon Morrow. He was outstanding Monday night in Triple-A and could be a candidate to take Vargas' rotation spot as soon at Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16). Track Morrow's progress through his weekend start in Triple-A before considering him.

St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Joel Pineiro
Kyle Lohse
TBD, will be skipped whenever possible

Week 19 two-starter(s): Lohse. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday at the Mets.
Starters on the DL: Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters. The Cardinals have Brad Thompson in long relief, but Boggs is eligible to come back off his 10-day option to Triple-A the next time the No. 5 starter's spot is needed Aug. 11.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 19 two-starter(s): Garza. He is a must-start in all leagues after a solid outing Tuesday vs. the Red Sox.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andy Sonnanstine and Wade Davis. Sonnanstine is 5 for 5 in quality starts back in Triple-A, so he is a rotation candidate if Price cannot right his command. Davis figures to be a September call-up for relief at best at this point. He is a must-stash in long-term keeper leagues, though.

Texas Rangers

Week 19 two-starter(s): Padilla. He could be an advisable option with a quality start Wednesday at Oakland.
Starters on the DL: Brandon McCarthy (shoulder), Matt Harrison (shoulder, out for the season) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season). McCarthy might not be ready before the end of the season at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Main and Kasey Kiker. Neftali Feliz dazzled in his big league debut out of the bullpen, but he will be a candidate to start next spring. These other prospects won't be candidates to help this contender at this point.

Toronto Blue Jays

Week 19 two-starter(s): Halladay. He has tough matchups, but he has to remain active at this point.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow), Bobby Ray (shoulder), Dustin McGowan (shoulder), and Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season). Marcum has slowed down his timetable but he is still hoping to be ready for the major leagues by September.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills and David Purcey. Mills (4.06) and Purcey (4.31) have been much better in Triple-A, but they won't be much help outside of AL-only leagues if and when they get called up.

Washington Nationals

Week 19 two-starter(s): Lannan. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start vs. the Marlins on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder) and Scott Olsen (shoulder, out for the season). Zimmermann says he could be ready by the weekend, but the Nationals might lean toward holding him out until Fantasy Week 19 (Aug. 10-16).
Starters to watch in the minors: Shairon Martis, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg (still unsigned). Strasburg likely won't sign before the deadline and if he does, it is still very unlikely we see him in the majors before the end of the season. The other young arms could return, but no Nationals starter will be all that intriguing anyway. Martis has a 5.23 ERA and an awful .339 batting-average against.

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