Pitching Forecaster: Touched by some Angels

After Joe Saunders tossed up zeroes on opening night, who needs John Lackey anyway? Or Ervin Santana or Kelvim Escobar?

OK, so their Fantasy owners do, some desperately.

Oh, and, in Lackey and Escobar's cases, their agents do. Lackey is a golden paycheck next winter in free agency. Escobar could be, too.

For the second consecutive year, Lackey opened the season on the 15-day DL and is targeting a May 1 return. So, too is Santana, who will begin throwing off the mound this weekend. Heck, Escobar might even beat that duo back from shoulder surgery, as he is starting a Class A rehab assignment Thursday.

Unlike Santana or Escobar, for a five-month season, Lackey is an innings-eating ace that could still reach 200 innings. That would mean he averages around seven innings per start. The past couple of seasons he has been around 6.8 innings per start. You can see him certainly motivated to go the extra five or six innings to get his resume up to snuff before free agency.

You have to love a player performing for a life-changing contract. And you have to like Lackey's chances to get healthy more than most. At 30, you have to figure he has a few more prime years left in his country-strong right arm.

Before his past two injury-plagued Aprils, Lackey has started 33 games and surpassed 200 innings in four of the previous five seasons. The one season he fell short, he started 32 games and went 198 1/3 innings. He is a horse.

Owned in 65 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues, Lackey will rise to near full ownership after he makes his season debut around May 1.

Santana, 26 and just now entering his prime, has an identical ownership percentage and could be ready about the same time -- although his health is a bit more uncertain. Lackey threw off the mound Monday, while Santana will try to for the first time in a month this weekend.

"So far, so good," Santana told the Los Angeles Times. "We'll see what happens when I go off a mound."

Escobar, meanwhile, made his spring debut last Friday, throwing in the mid-90s, and is slated to open the Class A season with Rancho Cucamonga this weekend. He will throw 55-60 pitches and might need just one or two more rehab start(s) before he can be activated by the injury-hit Angels.

They figured they would get a good effort out of 17-game winner Saunders, but they certainly cannot be as confident in the likes of Jered Weaver (he is still a Weaver), Dustin Moseley (coming off a 6.97 Triple-A ERA last year!) and 29-year-old minor league veteran Shane Loux, who is merely keeping the No. 5 spot warm for Escobar at this point.

The Angels had rotation depth coming into spring and figured to get more with the surprising return of Escobar, but it got burnt on the DL with the unexpected losses of Lackey and Santana. It will be fun watching one of baseball's most stout 2008 rotations evolve in 2009, especially since the competition can only mean motivated pitchers for Fantasy owners, be it free agency or merely their big league life itself.

Forecasting risers
	Pitcher	TM
1	Trevor Cahill	OAK
2	Chris Carpenter	STL
3	Ryan Franklin	STL
4	Brad Penny	BOS
5	Brett Anderson	OAK
6	Koji Uehara	BAL
7	James McDonald	LAD
8	Brandon Morrow	SEA
9	Jeff Niemann	TB
10	Kelvim Escobar	LAA
Forecasting fallers
	Pitcher	TM
1	Jason Motte	STL
2	Chris Ray	BAL
3	Oliver Perez	NYM
4	Justin Verlander	DET
5	Cliff Lee	CLE
6	Brandon Webb	ARI
7	John Lannan	WAS
8	Carl Pavano	CLE
9	Justin Duchscherer	OAK
10	Bronson Arroyo	CIN

Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Webb
Dan Haren
Doug Davis
Jon Garland
Max Scherzer, expected to return from DL on Tuesday, April 14

Week 2 two-starter(s): Davis. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues if he pitches well Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Scherzer (shoulder). He is expected to be ready to be activated the first time the No. 5 starter is needed April 14. Consider him a sleeper in Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. He is real good, but he might not arrive at all this season.

Atlanta Braves

Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Javier Vazquez
Kenshin Kawakami
Tom Glavine, expected to return from DL on Saturday, April 18

Week 2 two-starter(s): Vazquez. He starts Wednesday at Philly, but he should be owned in all leagues already. He might be a must-start, two-starter.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Glavine (elbow). Hudson is out until at least August after Tommy John surgery, while Glavine should be activated before the end of Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19). He is a risky option off the DL, especially at his age, but that is a bad Pirates team. The more important thing to watch is whether he cannot start, because that could mean the arrival of ...
Starters in the minors to watch: Tommy Hanson. There is only one starting pitching prospect better that is starting in the minors and that person's name rhymes with rice.

Baltimore Orioles

Week 2 two-starter(s): Uehara and perhaps Simon, if the O's consider skipping No. 5 starter Eaton. Uehara's Orioles debut Wednesday will be newsworthy across the Earth.
Starters on the DL: Rich Hill (elbow). He has a lot of work to do to get healthy and build up his arm. Consider him a DL stashee in AL-only formats right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz. Future aces, all. Bradley Bergesen could be intriguing, too.

Boston Red Sox

Scout these two-starters
	Pitcher	TM
1	Glen Perkins	MIN
2	Koji Uehara	BAL
3	Kyle Davies	KC
4	Jered Weaver	LAA
5	Vicente Padilla	TEX
6	Fausto Carmona	CLE
7	Kevin Slowey	MIN
8	Jamie Moyer	PHI
9	Doug Davis	ARI
10	Ted Lilly	CHC
11	Zach Miner	DET
12	Chris Volstad	FLA
13	Zach Duke	PIT
14	Walter Silva	SD
15	Ricky Romero	TOR
16	Jesse Litsch	TOR
17	Daniel Cabrera	WAS

Week 2 two-starter(s): Lester. He debuts Wednesday and many are picking him to win the AL Cy Young. He is a third-year starting pitcher capable of performing on the level of anyone. Consider him a must-start option in all weeks right now.
Starters on the DL: John Smoltz (shoulder). Smoltz is being brought along slowly and will try to build up for a late May return. He will stay in extended spring training, which (coincidentally) ends in late May.
Starters to watch in the minors: Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden. Justin Masterson, a setup man who won't be stretched out, and Buchholz will be factors this year, but Bowden likely won't be, barring a series of big injuries.

Chicago Cubs

Carlos Zambrano
Ryan Dempster
Ted Lilly
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall, expected to make first start April 19

Week 2 two-starter(s): Lilly. He starts Wednesday at Houston and should win that matchup, so check to see if he is available.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeff Samardzija. Not making the team out of spring training as a reliever helps his potential to be recalled as the Cubs' defacto No. 6 starter. Aaron Heilman won't be stretched out and Chad Gaudin was released.

Chicago White Sox

Week 2 two-starter(s): Floyd and Danks. Floyd and Danks are likely must-starts in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda and Jeff Marquez. Poreda will be in the rotation by June 1, we say. Clayton Richard opens the year in long relief, which could make it tougher for him to be stretched out to start if there is an injury to the veterans on the staff.

Cincinnati Reds

Week 2 two-starter(s): Volquez. Unless he is beaten up by the Mets, he will be a must-start, two-start pitcher next week.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson. Bailey has the potential to be a big-time impact call-up. He earned a rotation spot this spring, but there wasn't one available. Now is not the time to forget about that kind of talent. Thompson is more of a back-end starter long term, but he has been hot in the minors the past few seasons.

Cleveland Indians

Week 2 two-starter(s): Carmona and Pavano. Carmona is a must-start unless Texas does to him what they did to reigning AL Cy Young winner Lee, while Pavano goes at KC (decent) and at NYY (ouch!). If Pavano can handle pitching at Texas, his return to New York shouldn't scare you off him in deeper leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow). He is out until at least July after Tommy John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Huff, Jeremy Sowers and Charles Lofgren. Adam Miller has staved off finger surgery, but his future is now as a reliever at best. We don't think he will hold Fantasy value like those other three could this season.

Colorado Rockies

Aaron Cook
Ubaldo Jimenez
Franklin Morales
Jason Marquis
Jorge De La Rosa or Jason Hammel, who was acquired in a trade Sunday with the Rays.

Week 2 two-starter(s): Jimenez, maybe. The Rockies play only five games next week, so unless they skip their No. 5 starter, they won't have a two-start pitcher.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder). He is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Greg Smith, Jason Hirsh and Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is going to be the 2007 Jimenez/Morales impact second-half call-up.

Detroit Tigers

Week 2 two-starter(s): Miner. He pitches Wednesday at TOR. He could be a two-start sleeper, or out of the rotation. Watch him.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety disorder). Bonderman might be back by late April. Willis is anyone's guess right now. They are decent stashees, though.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cody Satterwhite. With Porcello and Ryan Perry already in the majors, they are real thin on the farm, dangerously thin.

Florida Marlins

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller, expected to make first start April 18 at Washington

Week 2 two-starter(s): Volstad. He should pitch very well Wednesday vs. the Nationals, leading him to be picked up in many leagues for his two-start week.
Starters on the DL: Rick VandenHurk (elbow). We don't see him being a factor this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Sean West, Ryan Tucker, Brett Sinkbeil, Aaron Thompson and Burke Badenhop might get looks before the end of the season. The Marlins are loaded with organizational depth, so Miller will have a short leash.

Houston Astros

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Mike Hampton
Brian Moehler
Russ Ortiz, expected to make his first start April 19 vs. Cincinnati

Week 2 two-starter(s): Moehler, maybe. Assuming he doesn't pitch himself out of the rotation Wednesday vs. the Cubs, his matchups at PIT and vs. CIN are decent if you need a sleeper in deeper leagues.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Backe (oblique). Will throw off a mound Wednesday and perhaps start a rehab assignment thereafter. He is nothing more than a high-risk starter for the deepest of NL-only leagues, when healthy.
Starters to watch in the minors: Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. The Astros are going to need these guys this year, for better or for worse.

Kansas City Royals

Gil Meche
Zack Greinke
Kyle Davies
Sidney Ponson
Horacio Ramirez, expected be to skipped in Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19)

Week 2 two-starter(s): Greinke and likely Kyle Davies. Greinke pitches Wednesday and could earn must-start status. Davies had a great spring and starts Thursday at the White Sox to potentially earn two-start sleeper status. Watch Davies closely. He could be a real waiver gem.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, Danny Cortes and Carlos Rosa. The hot hand(s) will earn a look sooner or later, because the back end of this rotation is complete junk.

Los Angeles Angels

Joe Saunders
Dustin Moseley
Jered Weaver
Shane Loux
TBD

Week 2 two-starter(s): Perhaps Weaver. The tragic loss of Nick Adenhart puts this turn up in the air.
Starters on the DL: John Lackey (elbow), Ervin Santana (elbow) and Kelvim Escobar (shoulder). They might all be back by the start of May. Escobar first and then Lackey and Santana around May 1. Escobar begins a Class A rehab assignment this weekend and might only need a couple of starts before a late April return. Watch him closely.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden, Sean O'Sullivan, Anthony Ortega and Trevor Reckling. Ortega is a potential No. 5 starter in Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19), but Walden is the more elite talent, if the Angels choose to rush him to the majors. They might have to.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Week 2 two-starter(s): Billingsley. You have to figure he will be a must-start. He should dominate at San Diego on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Jason Schmidt (shoulder) and Claudio Vargas (elbow). Schmidt could position himself for a May return, at best. Vargas is not worth stashing and is out for an extended period, if not the whole season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom and Scott Elbert. Lindblom is an elite prospect who is a must-watch in all formats.

Milwaukee Brewers

Week 2 two-starter(s): Gallardo. He will be a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeremy Jeffress. He should help out the rotation before the end of the season.

Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano
Nick Blackburn
Kevin Slowey
Glen Perkins
R.A. Dickey or Scott Baker coming off the DL to start April 15

Week 2 two-starter(s): Slowey and Perkins. The Twins don't have a day off in the season's first two weeks. Slowey and Perkins are both pitching for must-start status Wednesday and Thursday vs. Seattle. Expect them to attain it.
Starters on the DL: Baker (shoulder) and Boof Bonser (shoulder). Baker might miss just one turn in the rotation, parhaps slotting April 15 vs. Toronto. Track his news in the coming days. Bonser is out for the season and can be ignored.
Starters to watch in the minors: Anthony Swarzak and Kevin Mulvey. Those are two pretty close pitching prospects who could step in and contribute if there is an early injury.

New York Mets

Week 2 two-starter(s): Pelfrey. He stands to be a must-start option, opening CitiField against the lowly Padres on April 13.
Starters on the DL: Tim Redding (shoulder). He will be no better than a May returnee.
Starters to watch in the minors: Freddy Garcia, Jonathon Niese and Bradley Holt. They will be needed at some point. None of them are all that promising yet.

New York Yankees

Week 2 two-starter(s): Wang and Burnett. They will pitch Wednesday and Thursday. We think they will be at least advisable, if not must-start options.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Hughes is almost certain to be needed this year. Kennedy might be, too. We expect they both will dominate Triple-A for at least the season's first two months.

Oakland Athletics

Week 2 two-starter(s): Eveland and maybe Anderson. Eveland will be pitching for two-start sleeper status Wednesday at Anaheim. Anderson could be a two-start pitcher if the A's decide to skip No. 5 starter Outman next week.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow). He is out until at least mid-May.
Starters to watch in the minors: Sean Gallagher is in the bullpen to start the season, so Gio Gonzalez is the defacto No. 6 starter in Triple-A. Michael Ynoa and Vin Mazzaro also could prove useful this year. Something tells us these guys will be called upon before they are truly ready. Cahill and Anderson were rushed, but at least they have elite talent that can help them win early.

Philadelphia Phillies

Week 2 two-starter(s): Moyer. His supporting cast and first matchup at Washington make him a nice sleeper.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Drabek. There is depth in this system, but they haven't really needed much of it the past few seasons. Carrasco is the real elite prospect in their group, despite his so-so spring.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 2 two-starter(s): Duke. He starts a potential rebound season Wednesday at STL. He could prove useful for deeper formats if he debuts nicely.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). The healthy Pirates pitchers aren't worth stashing, so the injured one shouldn't be either.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. These guys will get a look later this year, but they are hardly worth tracking in the minors at this point.

San Diego Padres

Week 2 two-starter(s): Silva. The rookie will be making his debut Wednesday and could earn two-start sleeper status. He is old for a rookie, but the Mexican import could be a surprise for owners in deeper leagues.
Starters on the DL: Cha Seung Baek (forearm). Mark Prior (shoulder) and Tim Stauffer (shoulder) were merely assigned to the minors for the start of the season. Baek is out at least a few weeks, so he will try to prove healthy enough for a late April return.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt, Josh Geer, Wade LeBlanc and William Inman. We list a lot of options here because the Padres will have openings galore this season. We don't really like these guys all that much right now.

San Francisco Giants

Week 2 two-starter(s): Johnson. He pitches Wednesday and could earn must-start, two-start status.
Starters on the DL: Noah Lowry (shoulder, elbow) is out until at least mid-May. He might never be the same at this point. The Giants don't seem to be counting on him.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson and Kevin Pucetas. No one in baseball has a better pair of elite arms down on the farm. Bumgarner and Alderson are both potential front-line guys. That will be a sick rotation in a couple of years: Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Alderson and Zito. That rotation will win a championship if it stays healthy.

Seattle Mariners

Week 2 two-starter(s): Silva. He will prove unworthy of a roster spot in Week 1, especially since he will get the Angels and Tigers in Week 2.
Starters on the DL: Ryan Feierabend (elbow surgery) is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Phillippe Aumont and Gaby Hernandez. Aumont is moving to relief full time and the team says he can be on the "really fast track." That sounds like he could be Brandon Morrow's setup man by June 1. Watch the Canadian flamethrower.

St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Chris Carpenter
Joel Pineiro

Week 2 two-starter(s): Wellemeyer and Carpenter. They will pitch Wednesday and Thursday, but we think only Carpenter will prove to be a must-start option.
Starters on the DL: Jaime Garcia (elbow). He is out for the season after Tommy John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jess Todd, Clayton Mortensen and Mitchell Boggs. The Cardinals might not need them, but Todd is one that could force his way up in the second half.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 2 two-starter(s): Kazmir and Garza. They will pitch Wednesday and Thursday and have a chance to earn must-start status. The Rays won't get a day off until Monday, April 20.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. Price will be the most-watched minor-leaguer in Fantasy for the season's first couple of weeks. It won't be long before he is up and dominating for Fantasy owners. Davis and Hellickson likely have to wait until spring 2010.

Texas Rangers

Week 2 two-starter(s): Padilla. He pitches Wednesday and could earn sleeper status vs. lowly BAL and KC.
Starters on the DL: Eric Hurley (shoulder surgery). He is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Main, Tommy Hunter, Thomas Diamond and Kasey Kiker. They might struggle in the majors, but the Rangers are strong and deep down on the farm. Feliz is the most elite of their prospects.

Toronto Blue Jays

Week 2 two-starter(s): Litsch and Romero. They will go Wednesday and Thursday and could prove sleeper worthy at MIN and vs. OAK the following turns.
Starters on the DL: Dustin McGowan (shoulder), Shaun Marcum (elbow) and Casey Janssen (shoulder). Marcum is ruled out for the year, while McGowan hopes to be a factor in the second half. Janssen could be ready earlier in the first half, but he will be a high-risk AL-only starting pitcher.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills, Brett Cecil and Robert Ray. They would be rushing these guys to bring them up this year, but there are opportunities in this injury-hit rotation this season.

Washington Nationals

Week 2 two-starter(s): Cabrera. It will be tough for him to earn even sleeper status after his Wednesday start. He will draw PHI and FLA on his next turns.
Starters on the DL: Matt Chico (elbow). He is out until at least late July after Tommy John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker and Colton Willems. It will take a real good rookie season by Zimmermann to be useful in more than deeper NL-only leagues and this trio is nowhere near Zimmermann's class of pitching prospect.

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