Former manager Dallas Green wasn't famous for a whole lot, but he was genius for saying, "Prospects are suspects." No one likes a suspects list, but we decided the halfway point of the season is a great time to break down the worst/best of the rookies and prospects here this week.
We do a rookie watch every week (see below), so we will focus first on the biggest busts among them and then outline some midseason picks for the All-Prospect Team and All-Disappointment Team. Bust might be a bit strong of a word when referring to these young players, but remember this is relative to their preseason draft position.
AL rookie bust
The AL rookie class has been steadily improving, especially among pitchers (mostly of the unheralded variety), but there are plenty more bust candidates. Travis Snider is back in the minor leagues. David Price hasn't been as good as advertised and every time Matt Wieters takes a step forward, he manages to take a step back. Our preseason No. 1 and No. 2 rookies, Price and Wieters, also happen to be our biggest busts. A part of this is due to the fact it took them so long to get called up from Triple-A, but their draft position suggested so much more right away. We still think they are going to be valuable in the second half, but our winner (loser?) is ...
Price, Tampa Bay
NL rookie bust
Unlike the AL, the NL rookie class has been rather underwhelming. It was somewhat expected to be shallow compared to the AL, though. But it is improving of late with the immediate impact of Tommy Hanson. He was the preseason NL Rookie of the Year pick. The close second, Cameron Maybin, is toiling back in Triple-A, showing improvement but yet to prove to be better than a Quadruple-A player: Dominant in the minor leagues, unfit for the majors. Maybin is hitting .324 through 145 at-bats and has improved his strikeout-to-walk rate (25-19). The power isn't there yet, with one homer, but we expected he would be more of an impact player in Rotisserie leagues for his steals. He has just five. Forget about his numbers before he was demoted. He was awful: .202 average, 1 homer, .280 on-base percentage and .310 slugging percentage, striking out 31 times in 84 at-bats and walking just eight times.
Maybin, Florida
First half all-prospect team
All these players started the year in the minors leagues. They might not necessarily be the best prospects at their position (some are), but they have been at least topical this first half:
C -- Buster Posey, Giants -- He
is soaring to prominence and might even challenge Wieters for best young
catcher next spring.
1B -- Justin Smoak,
Rangers -- There is talk he could replace struggling sophomore and
whiff machine Chris Davis in the second
half.
2B -- Sean Rodriguez, Angels
-- He has been buried on the bench like Brandon Wood before him, but his power breakthrough was fun to track.
3B
-- Josh Vitters, Cubs -- He was
promoted to high Class A finally, so we will get to see him against some
better competition now.
SS -- Gordon Beckham, White Sox -- He has recently gotten hot and could
prove to be valuable even in mixed formats after the break.
OF -- Michael Stanton, Marlins -- This organization doesn't tend to rush
teenagers, but this 19-year-old is already popping homers in Double-A.
OF
-- Michael Taylor, Phillies -- He
was so hot in Triple-A our users clamored for him and prompted us to add
him to the database.
OF -- Desmond Jennings,
Rays -- The 22-year-old has hit .321 with 28 steals, posting a .394
OBP and a .487 SLUG.
SP -- Tommy Hanson,
Braves -- It is as unfair to list him here as it was for the Braves
to keep him down that long.
SP -- David Price, Rays -- Ditto, but he hasn't quite been as
impressive in Year 2 as a pro as he was last year.
SP -- Madison Bumgarner, Giants -- This teenager is so dominant in
Double-A, he could be a candidate to help down the stretch.
SP -- Clay Buchholz, Red Sox -- He doesn't have rookie eligibility,
but he is being held back like a prospect. Our guess: Up before August.
SP
-- Chris Tillman, Orioles -- The
fact he hasn't been considered anything more than a September call-up
tells you what the O's think of him.
RP -- Neftali Feliz, Rangers -- It is easy to slot him here now that the
Rangers decided he would help down the stretch in the bullpen.
First half all-disappointment team
These players have been disappointments in some way to Fantasy owners in the first half. They could be performing well, but their situation or circumstance holds them back right now.
C -- Jeff Clement, Mariners -- We
figured he was going to make the team, but a knee injury kept him out
from behind the plate.
1B -- Lars Anderson,
Red Sox -- He hasn't been able to match the hype to date, hitting
just .257 with a .405 SLUG and 66 strikeouts in 67 games.
2B -- Matt Antonelli, Padres -- After hitting .215 last year, he was
injured and then returned to hit .185 thus far. Maybe 2007 was the fluke.
3B
-- Brandon Wood, Angels -- His
appearance here has less to do with his numbers than it does with the
Angels keeping him down.
SS -- Wilmer Flores, Mets -- It is tough to pick on a 17-year-old, but
the next Miguel Cabrera was a lot more
productive a year ago.
OF -- Cameron Maybin,
Marlins -- Even with the self-destruction of Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers are winning the Miguel Cabrera trade still.
OF -- Fernando Martinez, Mets -- It is impressive he is playing meaningful
games in the majors at 20, but he is overmatched right now.
OF -- Lastings Milledge, Pirates -- It could be his character, but two
teams have traded him now, and gotten surprisingly little for him.
SP
-- David Price, Rays -- This is
harsh to list him here, but it is just a function of the enormous
expectations. He can reach them still, though.
SP -- Brett Anderson, A's -- He was ticking it up to 97 mph in his last
start, but he and Trevor Cahill have
been outpitched by Josh Outman.
SP
-- Jeff Samardzija, Cubs -- There
was a time we figured he was an instant ace, but he is stuck in relief
in lieu of Randy Wells. Who?
SP -- Adam Miller, Indians -- We have anticipated his arrival for
years, fairly or not, but his career-threatening surgery was a real
bummer.
SP -- Clay Buchholz, Red
Sox -- Another one on both teams. As dominant as he has been, it is
as disappointing we cannot get him in the majors.
RP -- Ryan Perry, Tigers -- A spring that started so promising led us
to think he could close this year. He is, but back in Triple-A now.
Rookie watch
Top AL rookies to date
- Rick Porcello, SP, DET -- He is going to be less impressive in the second half, so you might want to sell high.
- Ricky Romero, SP, TOR -- He has been on a roll. We don't think he is this good long term, but he is definitely useful.
- Andrew Bailey, RP, OAK -- He has been a pleasant first-half surprise and useful in any league at the closer spot.
- Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL -- It is the year of the rookie pitcher in the AL, but Reimold leads in power categories.
- Brett Gardner, OF, NYY -- His 30-plus steals pace makes him valuable in all Rotisserie leagues, even in a time-share.
- Honorable mentions: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB; Scott Richmond, SP, TOR; David Price, SP, TB; Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX; Brad Bergesen, SP, BAL; Matt Wieters, C, BAL; Chris Getz, 2B, CHW; Gordon Beckham, SS, CHW; Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK; Vin Mazzaro, SP, OAK and Matt Palmer, RP, LAA.
Top NL rookies to date
- Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL -- We hinted you might want to sit him vs. the Yankees and Red Sox and he went on to blank them both.
- Colby Rasmus, OF, STL -- Walkoff game-winner Wednesday night could be his highlight moment in his candidacy tape.
- J.A. Happ, SP, PHI -- He started the season in the bullpen, and unbeaten. The Phillies really need him now.
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT -- We called him the next Lastings Milledge and they will be teammates soon. McCutchen obviously looks better.
- Kenshin Kawakami, SP, ATL -- He needs to be careful because Tim Hudson (elbow) is coming back in August.
- Honorable mentions: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL; Dan L. Meyer, SP, ATL; Randy Wells, SP, CHC; Sean West, SP, FLA; Casey McGehee, 3B, MIL; Gerardo Parra, OF, ARI; Travis Ishikawa, 1B, SF; and Jordan Zimmermann, SP, WAS.
Prospect watch
Every Thursday, we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
