The Butler did it.
He ruined your Fantasy season. You put your faith in him, having heard nothing but the best from those who saw him up close, but when the time came for him to go to work, he sat around and watched soap operas all day.
Or at least did the baseball equivalent.
Granted, if you blame your Fantasy misfortunes on a middle-to-late-round pick like Billy Butler, you probably overlooked a more obvious mistake you made earlier in your draft, but Butler clearly disappointed at the start of this season, looking more like a sleepwalker than a sleeper.
But all that's changed. The Butler has served his sentence, recaptured his promise and opened the second half seemingly ready to fulfill his duty.
You rang, sir?
Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.
Billy Butler, DH, Royals
I rarely base sliders on so little evidence, but I have a hunch on Butler. And when recommending a player unowned in 70 percent of leagues, a hunch is all you need.
I certainly understand why Butler, a second-year player, fell out of favor with the Royals (at least for the present) and his Fantasy owners early in the season. For all of his supposed power potential, he had one stinking home run at the time of his banishment to Triple-A Omaha.
And I say "banishment" for a reason. One time in Omaha is one time too many.
He hit .337 with five home runs and a .982 OPS in the minors, showing his talent hadn't evaporated and proving he belongs in the bigs.
Of course, saying he's gone crazy since his return wouldn't be accurate. His batting average has actually dropped from .265 to .258 over that period. But since the All-Star break, something has changed. For a player of his pedigree, four home runs in 35 at-bats means something, especially when he hit only two in his first 233.
Recent baseball history has an unending list of players who looked overmatched in their first major-league opportunities only to blow up in their second. Bobby Abreu, Paul Konerko and Hank Blalock didn't look the least bit special, statistically speaking. Shoot, Gary Sheffield needed four opportunities before he suddenly turned the corner. And although Butler's road to success doesn't quite model theirs because he did perform well as a rookie, his doesn't look all that different from Carlos Quentin's or Justin Morneau's.
The "delayed breakout" is the silver lining in my general distrust of rookies. Everybody wants the hot prospect when he first arrives in the majors, but if he doesn't blow up right away, they forget about him.
My colleague Eric Mack calls such players "overlooked sophomores" and touts them at the beginning of every season, but in Butler's case, the breakout might very well have come midseason. If nobody owns him in your league, what do you have to lose? You might get half a season of .300-30-100 production.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels
Some things are worth waiting for.
Jennifer Love Hewitt? Oh, I could wait the rest of my life. The McRib sandwich? Eh, it'll be back soon enough.
A few short weeks ago, I would have listed Vladimir Guerrero with the former. Even though he got off to a slow start, his numbers falling short of expectations, if he said, "wait for me," I would have said, "OK."
But enough is enough. I've waited as long as I could, Vlad. I have to move on.
Why do some people still hope for that one crazy month when Guerrero makes up for lost time? Over his entire career, consistency has defined him. He's not Alfonso Soriano. He doesn't have a basis for one crazy month because he's always performed equally well from month to month to month.
And the beginning of a decline makes sense for a 32-year-old player, particularly one who entered the big leagues at age 20. Technically, the decline probably started last year, when he hit fewer than 30 homers for the first time in a season not shortened by injury. Will it continue this season with a batting average under .300 for the first time? I think so.
Because what you see is what you get with Vlad these days, as always. His unmatched consistency and inability to get especially hot or cold for a period of more than two weeks suggests so, meaning he'll probably finish with 25-30 homers and a batting average around .290. Do those numbers still make him a must-start in Fantasy? Of course they do. But they no longer make him elite, and if someone offers you Carlos Quentin or Nick Markakis in exchange for him, I say out with the old, in with the new.
Jorge Campillo, SP, Braves
With all the talk of relatively obscure or unsuccessful relievers becoming worthy starting pitchers this season -- Justin Duchscherer, Ryan Dempster and Todd Wellemeyer, for instance -- one such pitcher has consistently gotten the shaft.
And he just so happens to pitch for the team I call my own. Darn it.
No, Jorge Campillo doesn't have as much relief experience as those other three, but when the Braves first promoted him to work out of the bullpen, I don't think anyone envisioned him eventually entering the rotation. Not only has he done just that, but he has a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts.
Common sense tells you those numbers belong on somebody's Fantasy team. Apparently, only 44 percent of leagues adhere to common sense.
I understand the skepticism. A player who turns 30 during his rookie season shouldn't perform this well unless he just came from Japan. Plus, Campillo had that hiccup in June when he posted a 4.35 ERA.
But since then, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts, facing mostly division opponents who've seen him before. If those numbers wouldn't help you in Rotisserie, you probably play in a four-team league.
Pick him up. Even if you think the ride won't last, enjoy it while it does.
Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros
Miguel Tejada is many things.
Deserving of starting for the Astros? Yes. Deserving of starting for your Fantasy team? Yes. A power hitter? No.
How dare me. He hit 34 home runs twice and drove in 150 runs once as a shortstop, as a shortstop.
Times change. People change. And believe it or not, Tejada has changed -- even since April, when he hit four of his 10 homers and slugged .560. His slugging percentage dropped to .402 in May and .392 in June before settling at .269 in July. Look out, David Eckstein.
On a related note, please don't trade Tejada for Eckstein.
But if someone offers you anything close to an elite player at another position, take it. You shouldn't have much trouble replacing Tejada off the waiver wire in mixed leagues, and at age 34, he just doesn't have the power he once did.
Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers
Every season, in every league across the Fantasy world, Fantasy owners trip over each other to claim the next super rookie off the waiver wire.
They don't even know if they've found him. They just don't want to run the risk of someone else finding him first.
And I don't mean rookies who simply become solid Fantasy contributors like Evan Longoria. I mean super rookies. Think Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun and, for lack of an ideal third example, Ichiro Suzuki.
Ladies and gentlemen, Chris Davis is that super rookie.
I mean it. He's the guy you want.
So ... why haven't you picked him up yet?
Sure, some Fantasy owners have caught on to the fact that he has a near-.300 batting average after hovering around the .200 mark for a couple weeks, that he has 10 home runs in little more than a month's work after hitting 23 in 297 minor-league at-bats. But some still haven't. When Longoria opened this season in the minors, Fantasy owners in 68 percent of leagues still wanted him. So how does Chris Davis get only 67 percent ownership when he has a home run every 10 at-bats?
Wake up and smell the coffee, people. The closest thing to this year's Braun is waving his arms and screaming bloody murder. What more does he have to do to get your attention?
Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Justin Duchscherer, SP, Athletics
You know you wanted it to happen.
Don't lie. You couldn't wait for the world to right itself, for the unlikely to hero to fall and once again become the dud you knew him to be. Because allowing no more than three earned runs in a game -- and that only once -- is just, well, unnatural -- for him or anybody else.
So when the wheels came off for Justin Duchscherer on Sunday, and he allowed eight earned runs to the Rangers, you know you felt gratified in a twisted sort of way, like when one of your classmates got a tongue-lashing in grade school.
"Ooooooooo," you thought. "He done did it now."
Did he done do it, now? Done he did it, really?
Even though I shared the same sort of sadistic longing, expecting him to fail every time he took the mound, I think Duchscherer deserves a pass after one poor start. It came at the hand of the Rangers, after all, who probably have the most imposing lineup in baseball.
Just wait and see how Duchscherer bounces back in his next start at Boston. If he gives up five or six runs, maybe you should worry, but if he gives up two in seven innings, we can put this whole messy business behind us.
Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks
Someone's caught fire in Arizona.
You knew it'd happen eventually. Dry heat indeed.
But when you hear who it is, you might not get so excited. Ready? Conor Jackson is batting .514 (19-for-37) with four home runs and a 1.517 slugging percentage since the All-Star break.
Ugh. He done did this before. Really, he done did. And then he broke all of our hearts by hitting two home runs and slugging under .400 the next two months.
So the guy gets hot every now and then. Don't get carried away with it. Fool me twice shame on me, right? Obviously, you should start Jackson right now, but don't think his Fantasy value has changed any with his recent performance.
Change-up Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.
Cody Ross, OF, Marlins
Granted, he was ridiculously underowned in Fantasy when I waxed poetic about his A-Rod-like slugging percentage, but Cody Ross hasn't exactly lived up to my hype since.
Yes, he deserves a roster spot in most mixed leagues as an everyday player with underrated power, but does he deserve to start? Not unless you want to endure some crippling cold stretches.
Right now, he's owned in 46 percent of Fantasy leagues, up from 19 percent before all the craziness began. I still call 46 a little low for him, but I won't lose my head over it. You can afford to leave him on waivers until he gets hot again.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.
