Each week in this space, in addition to ranking the top 70 pitchers for the coming week, I make my cases for and against using certain two-start pitchers in various formats. This time, I'm making a point to advise against using a particular one-start pitcher.
Since coming off the disabled list earlier this month, Yovani Gallardo has made three starts, each of which has been a resounding success. Digging beyond the 0.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP he has produced in those starts, we see the same pitcher who struggled prior to his DL stint. As has been typical throughout his career, Gallardo has struggled to find the strike zone, getting strikes on 58 percent of his pitches over his last three outings. He is also having difficulty getting swings and misses and avoiding hard contact, as he has not improved on either his 7 percent whiff rate or 27 percent line drive rate. Gallardo has managed to succeed by somehow issuing only five walks over his last 19 1/3 innings and by stranding 91 percent of the runners he has allowed (per FanGraphs.com). His luck could run out when he faces the Pirates on Tuesday.
Because his results have been superb lately, Gallardo's activation rate has been slowly climbing, and owners in the hunt for a title might view him as a secret weapon down the stretch. However, I have left him off this week's top 70, as I see a bounty of options who should help you more this week than the Brewers' opening day starter.
You may not even need to go to your bench or waivers at all to set your rotation this week, as many of the top starters in the majors are set to make two starts in Fantasy Week 23 (Sept. 2-8). Should you need to add a two-start pitcher, though, Jason Vargas, Charlie Morton, Dan Straily, Erasmo Ramirez and Garrett Richards are all widely available and are good enough to take a chance on. Or if you are one of the many owners who has Matt Moore in a DL or bench slot, get ready to activate him, as he is scheduled to start against both the Angels and Mariners.
You may also have some last-minute options that can't be foreseen at this point, as major league rosters can expand up to 40 players on Sunday. Check back in Monday's update to see if any additions have been made from the minors or disabled list. Two such additions, for example, could be Tony Cingrani and Corey Kluber, who could return to their respective rotations next week if they are ready to come off the disabled list.
Monday update: So the chances for Cingrani and Kluber to make their returns this week look good. They're particularly robust for Cingrani, who according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, is set to face the Cardinals this week. The Reds' lefty is now in this week's rankings at No. 50.. The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports Kluber could be back in the Indians' rotation for Friday's game against the Mets. The Plain Dealer also indicated the team may limit Kluber to roughly 60 pitches. Since he could knock either Danny Salazar or Scott Kazmir out of a starting role, none of the three figure to have much Fantasy value this week.
The Cardinals revealed the identity of their mystery starter for Tuesday against the Reds, and it's Michael Wacha. Should he fare well in Cincinnati, that would line him up for a second outing against the Pirates. With those two potential starts, Wacha now ranks 40th this week.
Just ahead of Wacha in the rankings is Wade Miley, but like Wacha, he's not an absolute lock to make both of his scheduled starts. The Arizona Republic reports the Diamondbacks are toying with the idea of moving to a six-man rotation, and that could bump Miley from Sunday's start at the Giants.
While Wacha and Miley have a chance at losing a second start, that fate has already befallen Henderson Alvarez and Yusmeiro Petit. Brian Flynn's spot start for the Marlins on Wednesday pushes every Marlins starter, including Alvarez, back a day, whereas the Giants flipped Petit with Barry Zito in their rotation, so now Zito inherits a two-start week.
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Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 | |
1 | Clayton Kershaw | @COL (Bettis) | @CIN (Bailey) | |
2 | Cole Hamels | WAS (Strasburg) | ATL (Maholm) | |
3 | Adam Wainwright | @CIN (Latos) | PIT (Locke) | |
4 | Chris Sale | @NYY (Kuroda) | @BAL (Tillman) | |
5 | Felix Hernandez | @KC (Duffy) | TB (Archer) | |
6 | Stephen Strasburg | @PHI (Hamels) | @MIA (Eovaldi) | |
7 | Madison Bumgarner | @SD (Erlin) | ARI (Miley) | |
8 | Mat Latos | STL (Wainwright) | LAD (Greinke) | |
9 | Yu Darvish | @OAK (Parker) | N/A | |
10 | Max Scherzer | @BOS (Lester) | N/A | |
11 | David Price | @LAA (Weaver) | N/A | |
12 | Justin Verlander | @KC (Duffy) | N/A | |
13 | Patrick Corbin | @SF (Petit) | N/A | |
14 | Anibal Sanchez | @KC (Shields) | N/A | |
15 | Jose Fernandez | WAS (Haren) | N/A | |
16 | Cliff Lee | ATL (Minor) | N/A | |
17 | Derek Holland | @OAK (Straily) | @LAA (Vargas) | |
18 | Francisco Liriano | @MIL (Peralta) | N/A | |
19 | Zack Greinke | @CIN (Latos) | N/A | |
20 | Doug Fister | @BOS (Lackey) | @KC (Chen) | |
21 | Justin Masterson | BAL (Norris) | NYM (Matsuzaka) | |
22 | John Lackey | DET (Fister) | @NYY (Hughes) | |
23 | Homer Bailey | STL (Wacha) | LAD (Kershaw) | |
24 | A.J. Burnett | @STL (Kelly) | N/A | |
25 | Hiroki Kuroda | CHW (Sale) | BOS (Lester) | |
26 | Mike Minor | @PHI (Lee) | N/A | |
27 | Jered Weaver | TB (Price) | N/A | |
28 | Julio Teheran | NYM (Gee) | N/A | |
29 | Alex Wood | @PHI (Kendrick) | N/A | |
30 | Ervin Santana | SEA (Walker) | N/A | |
31 | Gio Gonzalez | @PHI (Martin) | N/A | |
32 | Matt Moore | @LAA (Vargas) | @SEA (Ramirez) | |
33 | C.J. Wilson | TEX (Garza) | N/A | |
34 | Hisashi Iwakuma | TB (Hernandez) | N/A | |
35 | James Shields | DET (Sanchez) | N/A | |
36 | Chris Archer | @LAA (Richards) | @SEA (Hernandez) | |
37 | Dan Haren | @MIA (Fernandez) | N/A | |
38 | Jordan Zimmermann | @PHI (Halladay) | N/A | |
39 | Wade Miley | TOR (Redmond) | @SF (Bumgarner) | |
40 | Michael Wacha | @CIN (Bailey) | PIT (Morton) | |
41 | Kris Medlen | NYM (Torres) | N/A | |
42 | R.A. Dickey | @MIN (Pelfrey) | N/A | |
43 | Marco Estrada | @CHC (Rusin) | N/A | |
44 | Shelby Miller | @CIN (Arroyo) | N/A | |
45 | Zack Wheeler | @CLE (Kazmir) | N/A | |
46 | Jake Peavy | @NYY (Nova) | N/A | |
47 | Bartolo Colon | TEX (Perez) | HOU (Clemens) | |
48 | Jason Vargas | TB (Moore) | TEX (Holland) | |
49 | Jon Lester | DET (Scherzer) | @NYY (Kuroda) | |
50 | Tony Cingrani | STL (Lynn) | N/A | |
51 | Jonathon Niese | @CLE (Salazar) | N/A | |
52 | Lance Lynn | @CIN (Cingrani) | N/A | |
53 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | @COL (De La Rosa) | N/A | |
54 | Alex Cobb | @LAA (Williams) | N/A | |
55 | Gerrit Cole | @MIL (Gallardo) | N/A | |
56 | Travis Wood | MIA (Alvarez) | MIL (Thornburg) | |
57 | Dillon Gee | @ATL (Teheran) | N/A | |
58 | Dan Straily | TEX (Holland) | HOU (Oberholtzer) | |
59 | Matt Garza | @LAA (Wilson) | N/A | |
60 | Ivan Nova | BOS (Peavy) | N/A | |
61 | Jeff Samardzija | MIA (Flynn) | N/A | |
62 | Jarrod Parker | TEX (Darvish) | N/A | |
63 | Jose Quintana | @NYY (Hughes) | @BAL (Norris) | |
64 | Erasmo Ramirez | @KC (Chen) | TB (Moore) | |
65 | Taijuan Walker | @KC (Santana) | N/A | |
66 | Felix Doubront | @NYY (Pettitte) | N/A | |
67 | Tyson Ross | COL (Chatwood) | N/A | |
68 | Sonny Gray | HOU (Peacock) | N/A | |
69 | Charlie Morton | @MIL (Thornburg) | @STL (Wacha) | |
70 | Garrett Richards | TB (Archer) | TEX (Blackley) |
Honorable mention: Martin Perez @OAK (Colon); Tim Lincecum @SD (Stults); Bronson Arroyo vs. STL (Miller); Danny Duffy vs SEA (Hernandez), vs. DET (Verlander); A.J. Griffin vs. HOU (Keuchel).
Two-Start Options to Consider
Michael Wacha, Cardinals (@CIN, PIT): Wacha had been
reasonably effective as a starter earlier this year, both in the majors
and the minors, but he has been flat-out unhittable during his time in
the bullpen. As a reliever, Wacha has struck out 19 batters in 10 2/3
innings with a 20 percent whiff rate, and he's held opponents to a .205
batting average. He probably won't bring that level of dominance back to
a starting role, but he could still be far better than average in each
of his two starts...assuming he makes both of them.
This week's
rank: 40
My take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Bartolo Colon, Athletics (TEX, HOU): Colon was back in
prime form in his first start off the disabled list Thursday. He pitched
only five innings against the Tigers, but he needed only 73 pitches and
threw 50 of them for strikes. Colon also had one lone strikeout -- no
big surprise there -- but he didn't walk a batter and limted the Tigers
to one run. When Colon's control is at its best, his pitch-to-contact
ways work for him, especially at home, though he may miss Josh Reddick's defense, now that the A's right fielder is on the DL.
This
week's rank: 47
My take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Jason Vargas, Angels (TB, TEX): Vargas has pitched better
in each successive start since getting activated from the DL in
mid-August. His last two starts have been particularly impressive, and
they fit into Vargas' long-term pattern of succeeding more consistently
in pitcher's parks. Vargas has also performed well at Angel Stadium,
compiling a 3.30 ERA and 1.27 WHIP there, so a pair of home starts bodes
well in Week 23.
This week's rank: 48
My take: Solid
standard mixed league start.
Jon Lester, Red Sox (DET, @NYY): Though Lester has embarked
on an eight-game run that has whittled more than half a run off his ERA,
he still may not be the best choice for owners in shallower mixed
leagues. He has been inconsistent in his strikeout totals of late, but
the biggest warning sign has been the increase in his flyball rate. It's
been climbing since June, but he's recovered from a midseason barrage of
homers, having allowed only one in his last seven starts. That could
change when he faces the Tigers and Yankees.
This week's rank:
49
My take: Solid standard mixed league start.
Travis Wood, Cubs (MIA, MIL): Up until his Tuesday start at
the Dodgers, August had not been very kind to Wood. He had registered a
5.16 ERA over five starts, but it probably didn't help that four of
those starts were at home and against lineups that have fared well this
month. Though Wood gets two more starts at hitter-friendly Wrigley
Field, he gets more of a break this time, facing the Marlins and
Brewers. In getting to oppose the two most ground ball-prone teams in
the majors. it can't get much better for Wood.
This week's rank:
56
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Dan Straily, Athletics (TEX, HOU): Given that Straily has
coaxed swinging strikes on 11 percent of his pitches this season, it's a
bit of a letdown that he has just 98 strikeouts in 122 1/3 innings. Even
if Straily doesn't experience a strikeout surge over the season's final
month, he could easily improve. Aside from a series at Texas, the
Athletics will spend all of September in pitcher's parks. You can
certainly expect Straily to improve upon his 4.38 home ERA, as he has
stranded only 65 percent of his runners at O.co Coliseum this year (per
FanGraphs.com). He gets two of those home starts this week, and if you
don't already have a bevy of high-end two-start pitchers on your roster,
this would be a very good time to start Straily.
This week's rank:
58
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Jose Quintana, White Sox (@NYY, @BAL): Quintana has been
mass-producing strikeouts over the last two months, as he has racked up
10 or more swinging strikes in eight of his last 11 starts. (Oddly
enough, one of the exceptions was Tuesday's start against the Astros.)
He had already been a good source of WHIP, and now that he is missing
more bats, Quintana can lower your staff's WHIP even more and help with
ERA, too. He's something of a home run risk given his venues this week,
but Quintana is still a decent play in standard mixed leagues.
This
week's rank: 63
My take: Marginal standard mixed league
start.
Erasmo Ramirez, Mariners (@KC, TB): Ramirez's control was
surprisingly shaky over his first month in the Mariners' rotation, but
it's improved dramatically since then. Since Aug. 9, Ramirez has thrown
67 percent of his pitches for strikes and walked only six batters in 26
1/3 innings. He's still not pitching efficiently, at least not with any
consistency, but that matters less in a two-start week. What does count
is the 3.42 ERA he has compiled during that period, and he can maintain
that level of run-prevention in his starts this week.
This week's
rank: 64
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Charlie Morton, Pirates (@MIL, @STL): Morton has been very
good at inducing grounders for awhile now, but he's taken that skill to
a new level lately. According to FanGraphs.com, 68 percent of his hit
balls have been grounders since the All-Star Break, and during that span
of eight starts, he has held opponents to a miniscule .066 Isolated
Power and generated nine double play balls. Morton should continue to
produce a lower-than-average ERA, but he allows too many hits to
maintain a low WHIP. That's a reasonable price to pay to get everything
else Morton can offer in a two-start week.
This week's rank: 69
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Garrett Richards, Angels (TB, TEX): With a couple of poor
starts in the last two weeks, Richards hasn't been as steady as Morton,
but he has similar appeal. He gets plenty of grounders and double play
balls and has the potential for a low ERA, but Richards will provide an
average WHIP at best. I have Richards ranked just one spot behind Morton
because his matchups are slightly tougher.
This week's rank: 70
My
take: Marginal standard mixed league start.
Danny Duffy, Royals (SEA, DET): In his return from Tommy
John surgery, Duffy has been as good as ever at avoiding contact, and
it's hard to argue with the results from his first three starts with the
Royals. Control had been an issue for him prior to his surgery, and
though he's walked only five batters in 16 1/3 innings, it's still a
concern. Duffy walked 4.2 batters per nine innings during his time at
Triple-A Omaha this year, and he's thrown 62 percent of his pitches for
strikes with the Royals. While that latter rate isn't terrible, it's not
especially encouraging either. The safe route is to give him one more
week before trusting him in standard mixed leagues.
This week's
rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start.
Paul Maholm, Braves (NYM, @PHI): When Maholm built on last
season's late-year strikeout spike in the early weeks of this season, he
looked like a solid standard mixed league option. Since mid-May, he's
been back to his old contact-pitching ways, and in his two starts since
coming off the DL, batters have swung and missed on only nine of his 194
offerings. Unless you have Bartolo Colon-like control -- and Maholm
doesn't -- that's not going to work out very well.
This week's
rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start.
Bruce Chen, Royals (SEA, DET): Upon entering the Royals'
rotation in July, Chen made a splash with a six-game run of quality
starts that yielded a 0.93 ERA. While many owners picked Chen up at that
point, others patiently restrained themselves and waited for the
regression. Those owners were rewarded over the past three weekly
scoring periods, as Chen went 0 for 3 in quality starts and provided a
8.59 ERA. These are the two sides of Chen. His strong flyball tendencies
can translate into a low ERA and WHIP for a period of time, but sooner
or later, he falls victim to extra-base hits. Deeper mixed league owners
can give Chen a try in this two-start week, but in any format, you
always do so at your own risk.
This week's rank: N/A
My
take: Deeper mixed league start.
Chris Tillman, Orioles (@CLE, CHW): Tillman is 15-4, but
being among the best-supported starters in the majors (with 5.2 runs of
support per nine innings) has much to do with that. He has a respectable
3.61 ERA, but without a 78 percent strand rate, Tillman would likely be
on the north side of 4.00. He's not likely to maintain such high levels
of run suport or stranding, especially this week. Tillman will face the
lefty-heavy Indians at Progressive Field, a very good power-hitting park
for lefties, and he'll return home, where he has allowed 20 homers in 90
1/3 innings, to face the White Sox.
This week's rank: N/A
My
take: Deeper mixed league start.
Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks (TOR, @SF): McCarthy has had
a hard time getting whiffs this season, and that continued Monday
against the Padres. Still, he had one of his best starts of the season,
throwing seven innings without allowing an earned run. It was probably
relevant that McCarthy was facing the Padres, who produced nine ground
ball outs. In Week 23, McCarthy will face another offense -- the Giants
-- that is among major league leaders in ground ball rate in addition to
a depleted Blue Jays offense. A week ago, I categorized McCarthy as
strictly an option for NL-only leagues, but this time around, he's worth
a try in some deeper mixed league formats.
This week's rank:
N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start.
Ian Kennedy, Padres (SF, COL): Mediocre control played a
big role in Kennedy's disappointing run with the Diamondbacks this year,
and it has actually gotten worse since coming over to the Padres. In
five starts with San Diego, Kennedy has issued 18 walks in 29 2/3
innings and thrown 61 percent of his pitches for strikes. The change of
scenery hasn't really helped him, so Kennedy remains someone who can
only be trusted in deeper leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My
take: Deeper mixed league start.
Phil Hughes, Yankees (CHW, BOS): While Hughes' last two
starts at home haven't been bad, he's simply too much of a risk to use
in most Fantasy leagues when pitching at Yankee Stadium. He has a 5.79
ERA and 2.0 HR/9 ratio there this year and a 4.84 ERA and 1.70 HR/9
there over his career. Factor in Hughes facing the Red Sox and their
elite-level offense, and it's a week to be avoided outside of the
deepest of leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take:
AL-only start.
Bud Norris, Orioles (@CLE, CHW): Norris' first two starts
with the Orioles went well enough, though the Padres and Astros were not
the toughest of assignments. Since then, the level of difficulty of
Norris' starts has gone up, and so have his ERA and WHIP. He could eke
out a decent start against the White Sox, but then again, his command
has been so poor lately that he's a risk to start against any opponent.
This
week's rank : N/A
My take: AL-only start.
Andrew Albers, Twins (@HOU, TOR): With a 3.2 K/9 rate,
Albers would seem to be one of those pitchers who might only catch on in
a handful of AL-only leagues, but a 2.92 ERA and 0.86 WHIP have given
him broader appeal. Opponents have batted .138 on ground balls against
him, but unless he has a special way of motivating Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier
defensively, he's bound to regress towards the .245 ground ball average
that the Twins has been allowing as a staff. Once that happens, his
contributions to teams in AL-only leagues will be limited.
This
week's rank: N/A
My take: AL-only start.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs . You can also e-mail us at fantasybaseball@cbsinteractive.com .