Think about the last time you were disappointed about something. Maybe you were promised a five-star steak dinner and instead got a torched piece of meat. Maybe you were set up on a blind date with a "perfect 10" only to find out it was more like a "perfect 1.0."
Or maybe you drafted a football player with high expectations only to cut them from your Fantasy team because they weren't doing well enough to help your team win. Let's try to avoid these specific kinds of disappointments (can't help you on the chow or social life, sorry).
There are two kinds of busts in my mind: Players who simply won't do as well as they did the year prior and players who won't live up to their preseason expectations. Typically I have no problems with the players who won't live up to expectations -- I'll concede they're good players, I just won't draft them where everyone else is drafting them. The players who I believe can't be counted on as they have in the past I tend to not draft at all. Either way, both types are busts I just don't really want on my teams.
Before you head into your draft room, make sure you know which players you know you're nervous about. Then don't draft them unless it's a ridiculous value for your team. I always feel very good about my drafts when my players are made up of guys I don't "settle" for or draft with haste. You should do the same thing.
Here are 11 players I'm leery of this season.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: Griffin won't be a bad
quarterback by any stretch. Between his arm and legs there will be weeks
where he puts up some solid numbers. But it won't be every week even
with the additions the Redskins made to their receiving corps. Here's
the bigger problem I have: On average he's the 12th quarterback getting
picked, ahead of established veterans Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub. He's getting picked in Round 8 more often than not, way
too high for a passer with a sleek frame, a questionable offensive line
and no experience. A lot of people see Griffin and think he's the next Cam Newton because he's an excellent runner and has a cannon for an
arm. He's not. Newton is a beast of a man with better-than-advertised
accuracy. Griffin isn't as big and could have trouble adapting to the
pro game like Newton did as a rookie. I have no problem taking Griffin
if he makes it to Round 10 in your league. Maybe Round 9 is OK too. But
before guys with 4,300-yard, 25-touchdown potential? Don't let media
hype force you into a mistake in the middle of your draft.
My
projection: 3,985 passing yards, 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 407 rushing yards,
four rushing TDs
Mid-August ADP: 81st overall
I'd take
him: 109th overall
Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: I happen to like Bush's chances
to contribute to Fantasy rosters, but not dominate them. Start with the
team he's on: The Dolphins' housecleaning at receiver will make it easy
for defenses to cover the pass, even if Miami utilizes the up-tempo,
no-huddle approach like they might. Bush should be a bigger part of the
passing game but in turn will likely lose the carries he had last year.
Tack on a rookie quarterback leading the Dolphins' charge and defenses
will key in on Bush. Also factor in Bush's health, which he had until
the end of last season. He's never been one to stay healthy and last
season could be considered an anomaly. I think the Bush we saw in 2011
is gone and the Bush from 2006-10 will show up. Draft accordingly.
My
projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323 receiving yards,
two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 100th overall
I'd take
him: 113th overall
Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Greene's got a new tutor in Tony
Sparano, who has had success running the ball in this league, and has
the motivation of a big pay day if he can put up a monster season. But
for three years we've waited for Greene to break out and we're still
waiting. Through three years and 546 carries Greene owns 10 rushing
touchdowns and 10 runs of 20-plus yards. With Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight
waiting patiently on the bench, the Jets might run out of patience with
Greene if he stumbles early on. Moreover, the Jets' O-line is iffy and
the potential for Tim Tebow to steal
touchdowns inside the 10-yard line could further put a crimp in Greene's
plans. If expectations are for Greene to match last season's numbers
then there's not going to be much disappointment, but if we're hoping
for a massive season there could be trouble.
My projection:
924 rush yards, six rushing TDs, 134 receiving yards
Mid-August
ADP: 55th overall
I'd take him: 68th overall
Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: Helu's Fantasy value has trended
like Facebook stock. After last season we couldn't help but "like" him
as a budding No. 2 Fantasy rusher. But then during the offseason the
Redskins brought back veteran Tim Hightower.
Helu then found himself in a three-headed battle for reps with Hightower
and fellow second-year back Evan Royster.
It soon became evident that Helu wasn't running first-string, Royster
was. From there he developed tendinitis in his knee and said it hurts
him more in mid-August than it did last year. At best it seems as if
Helu will land passing downs work to begin the season while Royster and
Hightower work the tough yards. That's a good role for Helu after he
caught 49 passes for 379 yards last season. But it's going to take
injuries to the other rushers for him to get more work. And even if Helu
makes a start and gets 20 touches one week, Mike Shanahan could pull the
rug on him (and us) and make a change without warning like he did a few
times last season. No one's spending a sixth or seventh-round pick on
Helu now, and justifiably so.
My projection: 494 rushing
yards, two rushing TDs, 212 receiving yards, one TD
Mid-August ADP:
100th overall
I'd take him: 113th overall
C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Spiller the football player is a
gem -- that was evident last season when he ran for 446 rush yards,
caught for 187 yards and totaled four touchdowns in six games without Fred Jackson. But Jackson is back and if there's one thing we
learned before Spiller broke out, it's that the Bills have no problem
giving him the shaft and letting Jackson be the primary rusher. When
Jackson was healthy last season Spiller averaged 2.1 carries and 1.5
catches per game. Expect him to pitch in more for the Bills this season
but not to the point where he can be anything better than a spot starter
for a week or two. If Jackson misses playing time again for any reason
then Spiller would become a dynamo, but that's not the case when you're
drafting.
My projection: 653 rush yards, four rushing TDs, 323
receiving yards, two receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 95th overall
I'd
take him: 100th overall
Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Last year's breakout campaign
came with a price: An injured knee that required surgery during the
offseason. The rehab from said surgery, which the Cardinals never
totally disclosed, kept him sidelined through early August. By the time
he returned from the problem, so too did rusher Ryan Williams, whose injury opened the door for Wells to put up
1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first place. Now a split is
expected and with Wells' injury history he's no sure thing to stay
healthy much less average 107 rush yards per game like he did in his
first three 2011 contests. If the decision is to draft Wells in Round 6
or 7 or pick up Williams in Round 8 or 9, we'd rather take Williams
since he might end up lasting longer despite his return from a torn
patella tendon.
My projection: 702 rushing yards, five TDs, 88
receiving yards
Mid-August ADP: 76th overall
I'd take
him: 85th overall
Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: After missing six games last
season and all of this preseason with hamstring injuries, Austin's legs
can't be trusted. What's even more nerve-wracking is that Austin is a
tremendous deep-ball receiver, and if his speed is compromised by his
hammies then he's not going to be a dominator. And while he's scored at
least seven touchdowns in each of his last three seasons his receiving
average has sunk by at least a yard per catch over that time. After his
hamstring acted up on him in Week 2 he never finished with more than 74
yards in a game. For a guy with two 100-yard games since November 2010
after having five in 2009 and four in his first seven games in 2010, his
legs have to be in great shape. Hard to envision Austin being a reliable
No. 2 Fantasy receiver, especially with Dez Bryant expected to take a step forward this season.
My
projection: 975 receiving yards, six receiving TDs
Mid-August
ADP: 59th overall
I'd take him: 84th overall
Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: By now everyone knows that Britt
won't get picked where his talent and role in the Titans' offense would
normally dictate. Not only is a suspension likely stemming from a July
drunk driving arrest at an Army base, but he's also coming off three
knee surgeries since last September when he tore his ACL. Both of
Britt's knees went under the knife and so it's no surprise that through
mid-August he's had no reps in camp with the offense. He's a tremendous
risk not only because of his health but because of the looming
suspension, not to mention any other boneheaded thing he might do this
season. If you draft him, you must be willing to hold on to him not only
through his suspension but also until his knees are able to get him up
and running. It's too bad because he's a gifted receiver -- check that
-- was a gifted receiver.
My projection: 44 catches,
593 yards, four TDs
Mid-August ADP: 118th overall
I'd
take him: 183rd overall
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: When Johnson went down with two
separate serious hamstring injuries last year without contact from an
opponent, I cringed both times. When Johnson had offseason knee surgery,
I winced. When Johnson pulled up lame in an early training camp drill
and missed a week with a groin strain, I became disappointed. And now
when I see people take Johnson with a second-round pick in drafts, I
question what they're thinking. I'll never tell you Johnson isn't
talented -- I'm a proud University of Miami alum and have supported
Johnson since before you knew who he was. But I'm not sure we can count
on him for a full season and I don't love choosing receivers I can't
count on for a full slate. Johnson's never had more than nine touchdowns
in a single season (eight scores three times) and has topped 1,300 yards
twice, plus the Texans have morphed into a balanced offense that will
lean on the ground game a little more than most evolving squads. I am
absolutely for taking Johnson in Round 3 and can't help but think he'll
have a good season in helping Houston make a playoff run. I just
wouldn't take him over younger, healthier receivers in Round 1 or 2.
My
projection: 1,132 receiving yards, eight TDs
Mid-August ADP:
24th overall
I'd take him: 36th overall
Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: I didn't like Moore before he
got hurt but his injuries only underline my concerns. When I see Denarius Moore, I see DeSean Jackson
lite. A small, speedy receiver who will either win you or cost you a
Fantasy matchup from week to week. That much was seen in his rookie
year: He had 100 yards or a touchdown in 6 of 13 games and converted a
first down or a touchdown on 26 of 33 receptions. But he caught less
than 50 percent of his targets and totaled a combined 111 yards
in the seven games he didn't have 100 yards or a score. He's gotten off
to a rough start in camp this summer with hamstring injuries dating back
to minicamp keeping him off the field. Hamstring injuries can linger and
for a receiver who relies on his speed and isn't consistent to begin
with, that's not a good look for Fantasy. I would much rather take Darrius Heyward-Bey considering how he finished last season.
My
projection: 58 rush yards, rushing TD, 641 receiving yards, five
receiving TDs
Mid-August ADP: 112th overall
I'd take him:
130th overall
Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: It goes without saying that Davis
is a talented tight end who broke out last year to the tune of nearly
800 yards and three touchdowns, but putting him in the same category as Vernon Davis or Jermichael Finley is a
little ridiculous. The addition of Robert Griffin III doesn't necessarily mean more passing in Washington
-- they've done plenty of that since Shanahan has come to the Capitol.
But what it does mean is a change in philosophy as the Redskins offense
reverts to a plan that better suits Griffin. That means more downfield
passing to the sidelines, not to the middle of the field, which the
Skins addressed in free agency. RG3 leaned on his wideouts at Baylor, as
tight ends totaled 53 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns in
his last two seasons. That happens to be less than 10 percent of his
completions and not quite 14 percent of his passing touchdown total.
Tack on some blocking duties that might be necessary for Davis given the
state of the Redskins offensive line (Shanahan has to protect the
quarterback investment after all) and Davis' ceiling doesn't seem to be
very high. He might end up with 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns
again -- but in 16 games instead of 12 he played last year.
My
projection: 742 receiving yards, five receiving TDs
Mid-August
ADP: 89th overall
I'd take him: 129th overall
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