The Saints' offseason has been as fascinating as a night out on Bourbon Street. The team traded away receiver Brandin Cooks, replaced him with veteran speedster Ted Ginn, added ex-Lions guard Larry Warford, then stepped up for ex-Vikings legend Adrian Peterson. The draft brought in cornerback Marshon Lattimore, tackle Ryan Ramczyk and pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara.
It's enough to make you think the Saints are trying to change their identity, moving from the high-powered passing attack to more of a conservative approach.
Don't buy it.
The Saints have been one of the most consistent pass-happy teams in the league, calling on Drew Brees' arm for 63 percent of their plays over each of their last three seasons. That's helped create an environment Fantasy owners have hung their hats on -- last year alone New Orleans fielded a Top 3 quarterback, a Top 10 running back, two Top 10 receivers and a No. 3 receiver. Even Coby Fleener, who Fantasy owners were cursing under their collective breaths last fall, was a few points shy of finishing as a Top 12 tight end.
Peterson is going to draw a lot of attention in New Orleans, but the real star of that offense is going to be Michael Thomas. He wound up leading the Saints in targets, catches and touchdowns last year, trailing Cooks by less than 50 yards. If Sean Payton and his staff are willing to trade Cooks because they're confident in Thomas, then Fantasy owners should feel confident too. You'll see Thomas get picked in Round 2 in all leagues.
He'll go ahead of Brees, in fact. That might seem crazy given how good Brees has been in Fantasy for years and years, but it's the nature of the game. Because there are so many great quarterbacks playing around the league, the demand to draft them continues to get muted. Brees is practically a bargain by the time you get to Round 4, and given his consistency from year to year, he's worth targeting and even building a draft strategy around.
The Saints should be in great shape to rack up Fantasy points. They'll play 10 games indoors and don't have many difficult defenses on their schedule. Loading up on them has been a good Fantasy omen in the past and should remain that way.
Bust: Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is 32 years old, has had over 2,700 career touches, is coming off of a year where he averaged 1.9 yards per carry and tore his meniscus, and is joining a new team where he'll have to split carries. Call us crazy, but we're not expecting too much. Peterson and his fans might expect him to deliver huge numbers because he's done it so often, but the Saints typically employ at least two running backs on a regular basis. Last year Tim Hightower picked up about 10 touches per game, which is right about what Fantasy owners should expect from Peterson. Maybe AP delivers a few more touchdowns, but for a guy who's had a hard time staying healthy lately, he's become too risky given the expectations. Don't invest in him as anything more than a No. 3 Fantasy running back -- if someone else spends a pick before 95th overall on Peterson then they're hurting their Fantasy team, not yours.
Not a Top-12 RB: Mark Ingram
For Ingram to match his totals from last year, he'll need at least the 251 touches he accumulated plus the same workload at the goal line. Oh, and also some receiving touchdowns. Maybe this was possible before the signing of Adrian Peterson, but now that Peterson is aboard, Ingram's potential is capped. It's too bad -- he's performed well over the last three years, averaging 8.3 scores per season and delivering at least 1,100 total yards per campaign. But it just seems like coach Sean Payton doesn't want to trust in Ingram, or any running back, any more than he has to. Ingram's 205 carries in 2016 were the third-most for any running back in 11 years under Payton in New Orleans, and Ingram's attempts per game have dropped over three seasons. Even if Peterson breaks down, Ingram isn't promised to exceed the 250-touch barrier again. Your best bet is to minimize risk and not consider Ingram until around 35th overall in drafts as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher. p>/�_��
Don't Overrate: Willie Snead
Think Snead is going to get a big bump in targets after Brandin Cooks left New Orleans? Think again. With just over 100 targets over each of the last two seasons, Snead's been a serviceable No. 3 Fantasy receiver, especially in PPR. But even though he's a primary third-down target for Drew Brees, he's just not a monster stat producer. When the Saints get in the red zone they're as versatile as anyone, though they might wind up leaning more on Michael Thomas and his big 6-foot-3 frame. And while Snead is a crafty short-area pass-snarer, he's just not the big-play guy like Cooks was or Ted Ginn could be. He's also not a mismatch against coverage like Coby Fleener is supposed to be. Snead might see 15 or 25 more targets, which could lead to another year of near-1,000 yards, but until those touchdown numbers stay consistent, Fantasy owners shouldn't reach for him unless it's as a very low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
