The Jaguars can fire Gus Bradley, hire Doug Marrone, bring in Tom Coughlin to oversee the whole team and spend wildly on free agents. But we all know the short-term future of the Jaguars hinges on one guy -- Blake Bortles.
The fourth-year quarterback still hasn't taken off like your typical franchise gunslinger is supposed to. In 45 starts over three years Bortles has a 1.4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 58.8 completion percentage, a 6.6 yards per attempt average and 34 games with at least one turnover. More importantly, Bortles' career record as a starter is a disgusting 11-34.
So it goes without saying that this is a make-or-break year for Bortles. The good news is that once Marrone took charge of the Jaguars in Week 16, Bortles started to play a lot better. He didn't have to make a bunch of reads and looked relaxed throwing downfield. If that formula works for Bortles then the Jaguars should go with it.
Problem is, if we recognize that Bortles was comfortable doing those specific things, so too will the Jaguars' opponents.
The counter-move to that is to improve what's been the absolute weakest area for Jacksonville over the last five years -- the run game. With the selection of Leonard Fournette at No. 4 overall in the draft, that mission was accomplished. Fournette instantly provides a rushing threat that will take pressure off of Bortles. Tacking on left tackle Cam Robinson with its second-round pick fortifies Jacksonville's O-line and helps both the run and the pass.
The defense is also expected to play much better in 2017 after a flurry of free-agent moves. Between the arrival of Fournette and the defense stepping up, there might not be many games left for Bortles to throw it all over the place. We could see many more close games involving the Jaguars this year.
The Jaguars' franchise profile is on the rise. Coughlin will build that team into a contender, which he's already started doing this offseason. Bortles' play will determine whether or not he'll be there for when the Jags turn the corner and start making moves toward the playoffs.
Top-24 pick: Leonard Fournette
It's a new day in Jacksonville, yes it is. For the past five seasons the Jags have struggled mightily to run the ball, failing to field a 1,000-yard rusher and get just a handful of rushing touchdowns per season. Fournette should change that in a hurry. Coming in at 6-feet and 240 pounds, Fournette blended power, speed and incredible cutting ability to bowl over defenders and churn a 6.2-yard rushing average while scoring 40 times on the ground in 32 games at LSU. He's a no-brainer to lead the Jaguars' backfield, if not dominate touches entirely. With that kind of potential, Fantasy owners have no choice but to consider him a borderline No. 1 rusher. Though we wish he had a better O-line in front of him and a better quarterback to play with, Fournette does have potential for 300 touches, over 1,500 total yards and 10-plus touchdowns. He should be picked in Round 2 in all standard leagues.
Don't Overrate: Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson is a very good NFL receiver, plain and simple. The way he uses his size combined with his wide catch radius and strong hands makes for a great combination. To draft him for Fantasy Football and expect the kind of numbers he had in 2015 is a mistake. Jacksonville's offense figures to become a little more diverse this year, and its defense should also become much better. It could lead to fewer pass attempts to go around in general, something Robinson absolutely needs. His catch rate -- 52.5 percent through three seasons -- isn't a positive, nor was his per-game yardage dropping from 87.5 to 55.2 last year. If you draft Robinson with the expectation of 1,000 yards and seven or so touchdowns, you'll be okay. That makes him a receiver worth drafting in late Round 3 in PPR formats and Round 4 in standard leagues.
Sleeper: Marqise Lee
Allen Robinson was the Jaguars' most productive receiver last year, but it was closer than you might think. Marqise Lee played 234 fewer snaps, ran 124 fewer routes and had 46 fewer targets than Robinson, yet had just 10 fewer catches, 32 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns. Lee was not only more efficient than Robinson, he was also more explosive, averaging 1.4 more yards per catch than Robinson and racking up 13 grabs of 20-plus yards compared to Robinson's 11. This is something the Jaguars coaching staff can't possibly ignore. So long as he stays healthy, Lee has the potential to become a key part of Fantasy rosters. You should go ahead and pencil him in to be one of your late-round picks right now.
