In January I set out to bring more Dynasty Fantasy Football coverage to CBS Fantasy. I produced my updated rankings like I always had and even added Dynasty tiers for each position. Those two processes certainly molded my rankings. But then I set out to build a trade chart with values for every player and blew the whole thing up.
The trade chart you'll see below factors in my 2020 projections, each player's age, my view of each player's Fantasy upside, and a factor for their risk over the next three to five years. The process has been both maddening and enlightening, but in the end I feel much better about how I view (and rank) these players in Dynasty leagues. Just remember it's still how I view them.
The objectivity of this number system is still built on the subjectivity of my 2020 projections and my perceptions about both their longterm risk and upside. That's good to keep in mind in case you find one player that seems out of place. It may just be that I like them more or less than you do. The concept of 'this is still your team' applies even more in Dynasty. You should go get your guys. Hopefully the below chart provides you with a mechanism for doing that.
One thing that did come to light during this process is that Patrick Mahomes is more valuable in Dynasty than I've previously given him credit for. I went through four iterations of this process before I stopped trying to get him out of my top-10 most valuable players.
While I still believe quarterback is a deep position, it's hard to overstate the value of having the best quarterback in football for the better part of a decade. What's more, Mahomes' future is safer and more projectable than any star at another position. His combination of upside, youth, and security makes the depth of the position less relevant. Yes, there are 18 quarterbacks you could start in a given year. They aren't Patrick Mahomes.
One other factor that has Mahomes so high is that these values are based on leagues that reward six points per pass touchdown. All the quarterbacks would fall if you change the rules to four points, and Mahomes would fall more than most. In a down year he threw 36 touchdowns in a little more than 16 games, including playoffs.
This is also based on a one-quarterback league. But it's very easy to adjust QB values for superflex or two-QB. Just increase quarterback's value 24 points in the chart. That's the difference between Jameis Winston and Tom Brady, or my estimation of replacement cost in those formats. That would make Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson the three most valuable players and Kyler Murray would be in the top 12.
One other note, be careful with lopsided deals in terms of the number of players. If you're giving up one player and receiving two, you should probably not expect a deal where the values are perfectly equal. If you're receiving three players for one, you need to win the values convincingly. In other words, the person receiving the most valuable player in the deal should be paying a premium.
Have a Dynasty trade you'd like to have analyzed? I'll also be doing a Dynasty mailbag later in February. Send in your trades here and they might be included.
