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This time a year ago, if Fantasy owners were eyeing Mets pitching prospects who could make an impact in the coming season, they were far more likely to be paying attention to Noah Syndergaard or Rafael Montero than Jacob deGrom. While Syndergaard never got the call and Montero failed to impress in his first exposure to the big leagues, all deGrom did was establish himself as one of the most productive pitchers in Fantasy and win the National League Rookie of the Year Award.
Even after a highly successful campaign that included a 9-6 record, 2.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, some Fantasy owners may be hesitant to buy into deGrom on Draft Day. After all, he was a decent prospect, but not a highly touted one, and it took him awhile to find his footing as a rookie. Recall that after his first seven starts, he sported a 4.39 ERA.
It wasn't until early July that things started to click for deGrom, and over the last three months, he went 8-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 99 strikeouts over 85 2/3 innings. It may be hard to trust a pitcher based on a three-month run, but a closer look at deGrom's history shows that this breakout wasn't completely out of the blue.
Aside from a low walk rate, deGrom's minor league peripherals from 2012 were nothing special, but then again, he was just returning from Tommy John surgery. The following season, deGrom didn't put up big strikeout numbers, but he got swings-and-misses at a 12.2 percent rate in Double-A (per StatCorner.com) before getting promoted to Triple-A and struggling to avoid contact.
Then in the middle of last season, right around the time he started pitching with better control and greater dominance, deGrom starting throwing his four-seamer more often for strikes and he started employing his curveball more often. The curve was particularly effective for him as he was able to locate it lower in the zone than he had in many of his earlier starts.
Once deGrom refined his arsenal, he was extremely stingy with allowing walks or contact. Over his final 13 starts, he posted a 68 percent strikes thrown rate and a 14 percent swinging strike rate. Regardless of how that compared with his minor league numbers, those rates are too good to ignore, given that he maintained them over half a season.
There are plenty of more established options available as you look to fill in your rotation just behind your staff ace, but I would feel safe relying on deGrom to be my No. 3 starter in a standard mixed league. Just like Tyson Ross did just last season, deGrom could parlay a midseason breakout into a full year of robust Fantasy production.
