Andre Johnson's too old. He's not fast anymore. He isn't what he once was. He's not a red-zone threat. He likes '80s boy bands. He's into quilting.
What's your go-to excuse for not liking Andre Johnson in Fantasy? Whatever it is, get over it.
I'm guilty too. I called him a player on the decline when I broke out my first (and now outdated) version of receiver tiers earlier this offseason. Anyone who watched Johnson last year knows he's not a speedster. His longest catch went for 35 yards and it took him until Week 16 to record it.
But I think he has a chance to be helpful to Fantasy owners. Johnson has never caught passes from a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck (unless you count Pro Bowls). And Johnson has never been with a Super Bowl contending team like this one. It opens the door for some really good numbers.
But not really great numbers.
Luck connected with Reggie Wayne for 4.6 catches per game over the last two seasons. That should be right about what we should expect from Luck and Johnson in 2015. If he averages that amount, we're talking about 73 catches on the season.
Not bad.
Johnson's receiving average has declined over the last four seasons, from 14.9 in his injury-shortened 2011 to 11.0 last season with Houston's parade of crappy quarterbacks. I think we will see a surge in Johnson's receiving average but it's not going to be huge. Maybe 12.5 yards per catch. Multiply that by 73 grabs and we're talking about just over 900 yards.
Not bad.
Where Johnson could really see a boost is in his touchdown production. He's just another devastating weapon Luck could use when he goes into the red zone in 2015. Last year he'd survey the defense before a red-zone snap, find the matchup he likes and go for it. He'll do the same this year, which means if a defense lines up a small cornerback against Johnson, that's going to be a target. I can't see defenses properly covering Johnson and T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen and whoever else is on the field for the Colts while also having enough defenders to contain the run. Johnson's gonna get some goodies -- certainly more scores than he's had in each of his last four seasons.
So we're talking about 73 catches, 915 yards and, say, seven touchdowns. Not bad for a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver, and certainly not bad for an older wideout who Fantasy owners wrote off last season.
I like him as a borderline No. 2/No. 3 Fantasy receiver and the leader of the pack of the old names at wideout. Expect him to be a Top 60 pick in standard leagues and a Top 50 pick in PPR leagues.
