Few things say Monday Night Football like the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, at least when the two are combined.
The AFC East rivals have met 12 times on Monday night, which makes it the third-most common matchup in MNF history. But it's not just about the quantity of games they've played, because the two long-suffering but highly popular franchises have given us some prime-time thrillers over the years.
Oct. 12, 2009: The teams combine for 35 points in the fourth quarter and Ronnie Brown scores with six seconds left to give the Dolphins a 31-27 victory at home.
Oct. 23, 2000: In a game so epic it now has its own Wikipedia page, the Jets score 33 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to overcome a 23-point deficit. Because it was the largest fourth-quarter comeback in NFL history, the game became known as the "Monday Night Miracle."
Dec. 27, 1999: Last home game of Dan Marino's career. The Dolphins are contenders, while the Jets are out of the playoff race, yet Gang Green intercepts Marino three times and comes back from a fourth-quarter deficit to beat Miami 38-31.
This will mark the 98th all-time meeting between the two. The Jets have won 50, the Dolphins 46 (with one tie in there). And while it didn't go down on a Monday night, it's tough to talk about the history between these two without recalling Marino's unforgettable fake spike with a high-stakes game on the line in 1994.
That play, which also has its own Wikipedia entry, took place exactly 20 years ago this weekend. Marino could have clocked it with less than 30 seconds to play, and at that point it seemed the most likely outcome would see the Dolphins kick a game-tying field goal.
But instead, Marino caught the Jets off guard and hit Mark Ingram for the winning touchdown. The Dolphins would go on to make the playoffs, while the Jets would lose each of their next four games to close out the season.
I think what makes this rivalry so good is that there's a sense of balance between the two franchises. Miami once screwed the Jets in epic fashion and vice versa. The all-time series is tight, and Miami has scored just 0.7 more points per game than New York in their 97 all-time matchups.
Two organizations hailing from cities famously connected by snowbirds are also mired in decades-long Super Bowl droughts. The Jets haven't won a championship since 1968, the Dolphins since 1973.
This year, they look different on paper. At 6-5, Miami is a playoff contender. At 2-9, New York has been mathematically eliminated from contention.
But just last season, those pesky Jets spoiled the Dolphins' playoff chances with an upset victory in Week 17. This time around, they'll certainly relish the chance to play spoiler again with two tilts against Miami in the final five weeks, the first of which will be their 13th all-time Monday night meeting as we cap Week 13.
Let's elaborate while breaking down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Thirteen things to know:
1. Geno or Vick: Does it even matter?
For the record, the Jets are going back to Geno Smith at quarterback. That means they've gone from Smith (first 4.5 games) to Michael Vick (0.5 games) to Smith (2 games) to Vick (3.5 games) to Smith (0.5 games and counting).
Hell, at some point a 2-9 team might as well break the pattern and go with third-stringer Matt Simms.
Now, head coach Rex Ryan insists he has two good quarterbacks, but that usually means you have no good quarterbacks. If Ryan wasn't the league's most notorious blowhard, a comment like that would carry weight. But even his words were impacted by that lap-band surgery.
If you have two good quarterbacks, you don't bench them three times in three months and you usually win more than two of your first 11 games.
How bad have these guys been? Smith's passer rating of 67.4 ranks dead last among qualifying quarterbacks. Vick hasn't thrown enough passes to qualify, but if he had, he would rank second-to-last.
If we were to view them as one quarterback (we'll call him "Meno Smick"), here's how they would fare among 32 qualifiers:
| Where they'd rank among 32 | |||
| Rating | Comp. percentage | TD-INT | YPA |
| Meno Smick (67.9) | Brian Hoyer (55.9) | Blake Bortles (8-15) | Derek Carr (5.5) |
| Blake Bortles (70.8) | Meno Smick (56.0) | Meno Smick (10-12) | Meno Smick (5.6) |
| Teddy Bridgewater (75.7) | Mike Glennon (57.6) | Josh McCown (7-8) | Teddy Bridgewater (6.4) |
| Derek Carr (76.7) | Cam Newton (58.6) | Teddy Bridgewater (6-7) | Ryan Tannehill (6.6) |
| Josh McCown (77.9) | Matthew Stafford (58.8) | Kirk Cousins (10-9) | Blake Bortles (6.8) |
| * Stats through Week 12 | |||
Amazing that the three guys directly ahead of them when it comes to passer rating are all rookies. Have you lost hope yet?
Actually, the fear now might be that Smith will give fans a false sense of hope. It'll be hard for him to excel in this offense at this point, but if he can put together a decent performance against the rival Dolphins in prime time, he could regain some believers. That's what he did with a half-decent four-game stretch to close out the 2013 season, but then everything went out the window at the start of 214. Fool me once ...
2. Ryan Tannehill: The forgotten quarterback from the 2012 draft
Meanwhile, everything's gravy under center for the Dolphins, who have seen third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill put together a string of strong performances.
It's easy to forget that the Texas A&M product was picked eighth overall in 2012. The top two picks from that year, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, hogged so much of the attention. And Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, drafted in the third round that year, had such incredible sophomore seasons.
But Griffin has been benched in Washington, Foles struggled even before getting hurt in Philadelphia and an argument can be made that Tannehill has outplayed Wilson this season, especially in the past couple of months. Statistically and in terms of impact, he's probably not in Luck's range, but it's still time we start acknowledging that Tannehill appears to be the long-term answer in Miami.
After a shaky first few weeks, he has been en fuego for much October and November. And as a result, the Dolphins are competing.
| Tannehill heating up | ||||
| 2014 season | Comp. percentage | TD-INT | YPA | Rating |
| First 3 weeks | 56.5 | 4-2 | 5.0 | 74.1 |
| Next 4 weeks | 68.3 | 7-4 | 8.1 | 98.1 |
| Last 4 weeks | 72.5 | 9-2 | 6.8 | 106.0 |
What's different? Well, for starters, it does appear Tannehill has simply progressed. His numbers improved last season and continue to climb on an upward trajectory.
| Tannehill better with age | ||||
| Tannehill's career | Comp. percentage | TD-INT | YPA | Rating |
| Rookie | 58.3 | 12-13 | 6.8 | 76.1 |
| Sophomore | 60.4 | 24-17 | 6.7 | 81.7 |
| 2014 | 66.1 | 20-8 | 6.6 | 93.4 |
It also helps that he's finally receiving slightly better pass protection. Tannehill was sacked a league-high 58 times last season as an already weak offensive line found itself embroiled in a nationally embarrassing bullying scandal.
This year, behind a completely new offensive line, he's on pace to be sacked "only" 37 times. The Dolphins were dealt a major blow when they lost left tackle Branden Albert to a season-ending knee injury in early November, but rookie first-round pick Ja'Wuan James has a bright future and they have a slew of veterans -- Daryn Colledge, Shelley Smith, Mike Pouncey and Samson Satele -- holding things down on the inside.
But it does seem as though the Dolphins have made adjustments with new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in order to make life easier for Tannehill. You might have noticed that he sneaked onto that chart in which we looked at where Geno Smith and Michael Vick ranked among the league's worst quarterbacks because he's averaging just 6.6 yards per pass attempt. I guess that's fitting for a preview involving these two teams, because that's some Chad Pennington-level lack of aggressiveness.
Last week against the Broncos, Tannehill threw only one pass that traveled at least 20 yards, according to Pro Football Focus, which defines throws beyond that mark as deep passes. And in the past four weeks he has completed just one of nine such attempts.
On the season, he has gone deep on just 8.2 percent of his dropbacks, which is the lowest rate among that site's 28 qualifying quarterbacks. And his accuracy percentage on those passes (31.3) ranks 25th. He has just one touchdown and a league-low 233 yards on such passes, which is rather astounding when you consider who he's throwing to -- top receiver Mike Wallace is a burner.
That's what really separates Luck from Tannehill. Luck leads the NFL with 29 deep completions; Tannehill has just eight.
Still, against a Jets defense that is extremely thin in the secondary and is one of only five NFL units to give up more than 10 completions beyond 40 yards this season, Tannehill is in a good spot entering this game.
3. You know you're in trouble when you lose to the Bills by 35 points
That's what happened to the Jets on Monday night one week ago, making them the first team since 1992 to lose to the perennially hapless Bills by such a large margin.
| Biggest losses to Bills (last 20 years) | ||
| Team | Date | Score |
| Jets | Nov. 24, 2014 | 38-3 |
| Chiefs | Sept. 11, 2011 | 41-7 |
| 49ers | Dec. 26, 2004 | 41-7 |
| Patriots | Sept. 7, 2003 | 31-0 |
Only once in their 54-year history have the Jets won fewer than three games in a season, but they remain stuck on two and probably shouldn't expect to be favored again this year. The latest loss was New York's fifth double-digit defeat in its past seven games, likely signaling the end of the Rex Ryan era.
Makes sense, because this will mark the fourth straight season in which the Jets will finish without a winning record and out of the playoffs. The aforementioned quarterback situation continues to be a mess and a talented defense has been unable to save a team that for half a decade has lacked an offensive identity.
Ryan continues to insist that the team is talented, causing me to wonder if he even wants to keep his job. I mean, if that's not an indictment from the horse's mouth, what is?
The man has a smart defensive mind, but he has failed time and again at controlling the circus. Players are once again "speaking on condition of anonymity," which is never a good thing, and the fans -- who less than a month ago commissioned a plane to fly over the team's practice site with a banner pushing for general manager John Idzik to be fired -- are going after owner Woody Johnson.
Going up tomorrow on Route 3 East @woodyjohnson4 Pics to follow pic.twitter.com/cqEaBxrjlM
— FireJohnIdzik.com (@FireJohnIdzik) November 25, 2014
All bets are off when these teams meet, but the Dolphins have beaten the Jets each of the past two years in New Jersey. With a lost offense, a lame-duck head coach and a defense that had surrendered more points than all but two other teams entering Week 13, don't look for the Jets to break out of that slump Monday night.
4. On Miami's roller-coaster defense
Touchdowns allowed by the Dolphins the past four weeks: 0, 2, 0 and 5. They've given up 27-plus points on four occasions and 14 or fewer on five occasions, which is something no other team has "accomplished."
Lately, though, aside from a pair of predictably less-than-shiny performances against juggernauts Green Bay and Denver, they've been getting the job done. In the six games they've played against non-elite offenses -- talking Oakland, Chicago, Jacksonville, San Diego, Detroit and Buffalo, all of whom rank out of the top 15 in total offense -- since Week 4, they've allowed only 11.7 points and 280.7 yards per game while forcing 15 turnovers.
News flash: The Jets do not possess an elite offense, or anything in the orbit of an elite offense. We've gone over the quarterback mess, but quantitatively, they rank 29th in scoring, 30th in yardage, dead last in yards per play and 29th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) formula. They've also given up the second-highest sack total in the league.
That's particularly relevant here because only three defenses had more sacks than Miami entering Week 13.
That starts with three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Wake, who has the highest PFF grade in the league at that position. Wake has "only" 8½ sacks this season and is coming off only his fourth game with zero pressures in four and a half years, but he should have plenty of opportunities to feast on shaky Jets right tackle Breno Giacomini.
Just ask D.J. Fluker:
Or Jordan Mills:
Or Bryan Bulaga:
Or Sebastian Vollmer:
Without that Wake-led pass rush and against a better quarterback, the Dolphins would be in trouble. Cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan have been hurt and Jimmy Wilson was penalized three times against Denver.
5. Chris Ivory can be found on milk cartons throughout East Rutherford
OK, so the Jets won't likely be rocking out through the air, but they have averaged a spectacular 4.7 yards per rush this season and some guy named C.J. Anderson had 167 rushing yards on 27 carries against Miami last week.
The Dolphins can be pushed around, which is something defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle admonished them for coming out of the loss to Denver.
I mean, they were quite simply mauled here:
Again and again:
The Jets have the ability to exploit that, especially with top back Chris Ivory, who has averaged 4.5 yards per carry this season. The problem is Ivory has disappeared the past few weeks.
In his past four games, Ivory has received just 42 carries and has been targeted only five times as a receiver.
| Chris Ivory's workload this season | |||
| Weeks | Carries/game | Targets/game | Yards/play |
| 1-7 | 12.6 | 2.4 | 5.4 |
| 8-12 | 10.5 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
His production has dropped off to more of an extent than his workload, but it's hard to get into a groove when you aren't getting consistent work. Ivory has been held to fewer than 10 carries in four of his past seven games.
Fellow veteran Chris Johnson has become more involved in recent weeks, and he hasn't been bad. But Johnson still has only 28 carries the past four weeks. A platoon is one thing, but the Jets just appear confused.
It doesn't help that they've trailed a lot early, but Ivory is a power runner and this is a team that entered Week 13 ranked 29th when it comes to red-zone scoring efficiency. The Jets have passed the ball on 56 percent of their red-zone snaps this season, which is above the league average of 53 percent. Very odd considering this is a good running team and a bad passing team.
In the past four games, Vick has thrown 19 red-zone passes (completing just 10), while Ivory has received just six carries inside the 20. That's weird when you consider the evidence that he's a grinder.
A solid example from this season:
And an even better one from last season:
We'll see if they get back to the basics with their hardest-nosed runner Monday night.
6. Here comes Jarvis Landry
A rookie wide receiver is on fire.
Not specific enough? Probably not. This is the year of the rookie receiver. You can find five of 'em among the league's top 50 in yardage.
OK, a rookie wide receiver from LSU is on fire.
Still not specific enough? Technically not, because Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants has been on a tear and is getting plenty of attention. But no, I'm referring to his college teammate, Jarvis Landry, who has three touchdowns in Miami's past two games.
Landry, who was passed up 62 times in May's draft, has caught 79 percent of the passes thrown his way this season. Only one receiver with at least 50 targets has a higher reception rate (coincidentally, that's fellow rookie Brandin Cooks of the Saints).
| Highest reception rates, 2014 | |||
| Player | Catches | Targets | Reception % |
| Brandin Cooks | 53 | 65 | 81.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | 49 | 62 | 79.0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 46 | 61 | 75.4 |
Min. 50 targets (Pro Football Focus)
Working primarily out of the slot, the 22-year-old is now getting as much work as No. 2 wideout Brian Hartline. Even the $60 million man, Mike Wallace, has begun to take a step backward as Landry's stock has risen.
| Dolphins WRs, last three weeks | ||||
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD |
| Jarvis Landry | 26 | 19 | 149 | 3 |
| Mike Wallace | 20 | 13 | 124 | 2 |
| Brian Hartline | 7 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
Landry is physical enough to be relied on heavily in big spots, and he's a good enough blocker to excel on all three downs in the slot. Had he not gotten hot a little late and had this rookie class not been so deep, he would be an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Regardless, Landry could be in line for another big performance Monday. When it comes to DVOA, the Jets' defense ranks dead last in coverage against No. 3/4 receivers. Against No. 2 receivers, they rank 27th. That secondary is missing top corner Dee Milliner, and Kyle Wilson and Dawan Landry have been getting killed in the slot all year.
7. Miami's biggest enemy: The fourth quarter
The Dolphins certainly want to think they're legit contenders, but they've lost each of their past four games against teams currently in line to make the playoffs. And in the most recent three cases, against Green Bay, Detroit and Denver, it was the fourth quarter that did them in.
| Dolphins scoring breakdown | ||
| Situation | First 3 quarters | Fourth quarter |
| Points for | 231 | 54 |
| Points against | 137 | 82 |
| Points differential | +94 | -28 |
Miami held fourth-quarter leads on the road against both the Lions and Broncos but was outscored 32-11 in the final periods of those affairs. They also blew a seven-point lead on the Packers with less than five minutes to play.
What's going on? Well, it has recently felt as though Lazor has been honing his Cam Cameron impersonation.
Against the Lions, they ran on only six of 18 fourth-quarter plays from scrimmage, one spike excluded. And against the Broncos, they ran just three times on 17 fourth-quarter plays from scrimmage. That's nine runs on 35 plays in two close games. And what's really troubling is that backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas had a solid 74 yards on 12 carries through three quarters in Denver.
8. Advanced stat of the week
Something nice about the Jets? Something nice about the Jets! Well, sort of. The good news is veteran center Nick Mangold is having a kick-ass season. His PFF grade of 18.2 leads all NFL players at that position.
But what's truly sad is that the only other offensive player on the roster with a positive grade is Percy Harvin.
His grade: 0.9.
9. Under-the-radar stat of the week
Ryan has a reputation as a defensive mastermind, which is why it's simply unbelievable that the Jets are the only NFL team with fewer than 30 takeaways since the start of last season. In fact, it's not even close. The Jets are creating turnovers at an astonishingly low rate.
| Fewest takeaways, 2013 and 2014 | ||
| Team | Takeaways | Record |
| Jets | 22 | 10-17 |
| Chargers | 30 | 16-11 |
| Raiders | 30 | 5-22 |
| Saints | 30 | 15-12 |
| Steelers | 34 | 15-12 |
10. Injury to watch
Making matters worse for the Jets, they'll likely be without their top defensive player Monday night. Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, who was a second-team All-Pro last season, suffered a toe injury against the Bills and was in a walking boot last week.
"It doesn't look good for Big Mo," Ryan said, according to ESPN.com. "If you're in a boot, that doesn't look good for this week. But, hopefully, we'll get him back as soon as we can."
The 2011 first-round pick has 4.5 sacks and the highest PFF grade on the roster. With reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson also dealing with an injury to his back, the Dolphins' offensive line might be able to take Monday night off.
11. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes
Some indisputable facts, most or all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:
- The Dolphins have lost five straight and eight of their past nine Monday Night Football games, with four of those recent five losses coming by at least 13 points. The last time they lost to the Jets at MetLife Stadium was on a Monday night in 2011 (24-6).
- Miami has, however, won two of its past three prime-time games.
- The Jets have lost three of the four Monday night games they've played since the start of 2012, not including last week's rescheduled game against the Bills. But all of those were one-score games.
- New York has also lost eight of its past nine prime-time games (again, excluding the Bills game, which wasn't nationally televised). Their only prime-time victory since that win over the Dolphins in 2011 came against the Falcons last October (30-28 on MNF).
- Miami's all-time winning percentage is .567 (421-322-4), tied for third in NFL (behind Chicago and Dallas, even with Green Bay). The Jets (.456) rank ahead of only six active franchises.
12. But which city is cooler?
In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:
| Which city is cooler? | |||
| Category | Miami | New York | Winner |
| Best claim to fame | South Beach | Pizza | Miami |
| Celebrities | Eva Mendes, Rick Ross, Flo Rida | Jay Z, Scarlett Johansson, Adam Sandler | New York |
| Hottest celebrity | Genesis Rodriguez | Scarlett Johansson | Tie |
| Last call | Never | 4 a.m. | Miami |
| Nickname | Magic City | City That Never Sleeps | New York |
| Contemporary song | I'm in Miami Trick -- LMFAO | Empire State of Mind -- Jay Z, Alicia Keys | New York |
This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 13.
13. Prediction: No spoiler
Not this time. The Jets did beat the Steelers in their last home game and are actually 8-6 at MetLife since the start of 2013, but Miami's still a decent 7-7 on the road in the same span. New York is just too much of a mess right now. A lack of talent and focus should prevent them from competing, especially against a Dolphins team that appears to be on the cusp.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.
