Dak Prescott is the future of the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Romo is the past.
But exactly what their future looks like remains to be seen.
Is Prescott a stunning young-gun quarterback who continues to grow into one of the game's best? Or is he an overachiever, Christian Ponder-style, who turns some promise in his first couple of seasons into a slow disappearing act? Or the next Robert Griffin III -- a bright, exciting light that crashes and burns in a blaze of overhyped glory?
Put me firmly in the Dak-is-legit camp. He showed poise all season and gracefully handled replacing a star, showed an innate ability to protect the football and -- yes, yes -- arguably outdueled Aaron Rodgers in their divisional playoff showdown and the biggest football game of his life.
But pitfalls remain, points that could suggest history -- that of Ponder, RG3, Daunte Culpepper, Johnny Manziel and others -- could repeat themselves in Prescott. It can be said Dak played with a lead almost all season long, obscuring holes in his game. That he's a byproduct of a conservative play-calling system, a fact that made a fine QB look like a great one. That the league's best offensive line -- and true star of the offense Ezekiel Elliott -- carried the rookie.
That it's just a matter of time until Dak gets exposed.
I don't buy any of that, though history says more guys flame out than hang in there. So here are five keys to Dak showing the haters they're wrong, turning his story into one that ends with a career built on long success, and avoiding the pitfalls that have taken down promising QBs before him:
1. Don't let it go to your head
This is easier said than done, and not because Dak has shown any signs of being an egomaniac. The opposite is true. But all human success, especially great success, risks changing the person and process that led to it. That's keenly true when you're talking about being the quarterback for America's Team -- and going from afterthought to household name. There's a fine line between uber-confidence and unrelenting ego, and Dak will have to walk it.
2. Keep a chip on your shoulder
Ponder was the 12th overall pick in the 2011 draft. RG3 and Ryan Leaf were each the second, in 2012 and 1998. Vince Young went No. 3 in 2006, and while Johnny Football dropped to No. 22 in 2014, the adulation and attention did not. All have utterly underachieved, and only RG3 still looks to have any shot at reclaiming a real career. Yet other guys drafted in some cases much later, like Russell Wilson (third round in '12), Rodgers (first round, but No. 24 overall in '05) and, of course, Tom Brady (sixth round in 2000), turned those slights into real motivation.
Dak must do the same. Hold onto that feeling, remember every one of the seven QBs drafted ahead of you, and turn that fourth-round, No. 135 overall memory into the fire some of your highly drafted competitors simply don't have.
3. Stay healthy
Obvious, yes. Out of Dak's control, largely. But it remains so true that luck plays a huge role in life's successes or failures. Dak benefited from falling to a Cowboys team with the offensive line, running back and other weapons that made his job easier than most -- then, via chance once more, he got to step in when Romo went down. He'll need more good fortune to stay healthy, though his body type and ability to go mobile without taking the abuse RG3 has also will serve him well.
4. Be well managed by your club
The Cowboys need to continue to support Dak with wise decisions, even when they aren't as sexy as they are necessary. Some stuff they just can't control. Same goes for some people, like Jerry Jones. So Jones will have to control himself. Dak must continue to be surrounded by a sturdy and overpowering offensive line. Nurturing that line -- through careful care, cap management, through the draft if need be, by overcoming Jones' past love for splashy moves instead of practical ones -- is invaluable to nurturing Dak's evolution. Dak did benefit from a great situation in Dallas, and it led to great success. Protect it, Jerry, if you want to protect your new QB.
5. Work your ass off
Outwork everyone. Wilson shows up to the Seahawks' facility in the offseason when the rest of us are sleeping, even though he has already won a Super Bowl. That's why he has a ring. Peyton Manning was obsessive in preparation long after he'd earned a spot among the all-time great QBs. That's how he got there. "Stay hungry" is a cliché. But work -- hard, grueling work, when others are somewhere else relaxing -- is the most sure way to success. Outwork 'em all, Dak, and show everyone 2016 was the start of something beautiful instead of a bright flash in the pan.
I believe in Dak Prescott. I believe the Cowboys move past Romo and invest fully in their young rookie QB. But I also believe talent and opportunity are only the beginning of the process. How one manages them defines what comes next.
