Can we all agree that if the Broncos beat the Panthers in Super Bowl 50, it's not going to be on Peyton Manning's arm? Manning looked much better on Sunday against the Patriots in Denver's AFC Championship Game victory but the reality is that he's running out of gas physically.
And yet, he's installed as the second-biggest favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP.
Now, the logic here is the quarterback often lands the award by default when no one else can win. Manning won Super Bowl MVP during his only Super Bowl title run, a sloppy Colts win over the Rex Grossman-led Bears. He wasn't at his best and he wasn't dominant by any stretch, but voters just default to the quarterback when there's no clear, obvious winner.
But don't throw your money on Manning when there are better options. Via Bovada.lv, the full list:
Cam Newton 5/7
Peyton Manning 11/4
Luke Kuechly 14/1
C.J. Anderson 22/1
Ted Ginn 22/1
Von Miller 22/1
Greg Olsen 22/1
Emmanuel Sanders 22/1
Jonathan Stewart 22/1
Demaryius Thomas 22/1
Josh Norman 28/1
Aqib Talib 28/1
DeMarcus Ware 33/1
Corey Brown 66/1
Owen Daniels 66/1
Graham Gano 66/1
Ronnie Hillman 66/1
Brandon McManus 66/1
Darian Stewart 66/1
Danny Trevathan 66/1
Chris Harris 75/1
Devin Funchess 100/1
Brandon Marshall 100/1
Derek Wolfe 100/1
Kurt Coleman 150/1
Field 25/1
Now let's be clear: history tells us it's very likely the MVP will be a quarterback.
Over the last 15 Super Bowls, nine winners have been a quarterback. So that's six different winners who have not been a quarterback, including Ray Lewis (2001), Dexter Jackson (2003), Deion Branch (2005), Hines Ward (2006), Santonio Holmes (2009) and Malcolm Smith (2013).
By contrast, only three MVP winners in the regular season over the past 15 years have been non-quarterbacks (Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson).
So you're looking at a better shot to find someone random that can win. Obviously: it's a smaller sample size, which means more likely for randomness.
Given the likelihood of Newton winning it if the Panthers take home the title, I'm probably leaning toward avoiding Panthers players. Maybe Kuechly or Thomas Davis if he plays and is installed above 30/1 -- Davis could be an emotional selection if he's able to go. But a Panthers blowout just feels like Newton is a lock.
On the Broncos however, there are some nice defensive options. Von Miller could put up a huge game -- he's capable of multiple sacks, creating turnovers, intercepting a football (or two??) and would pay off nicely.
DeMarcus Ware would be a nice gamble as well with the pressure he puts up. Danny Trevathan has a pair of interceptions and a return touchdown on the season. Derek Wolfe has been credited with at least half a sack in six-straight games.
Aqib Talib has a trio of picks on the season, two of which were returned for long touchdowns.
So, basically what I'm saying is this: If you want to invest in a player to win Super Bowl MVP at reasonably long-shot odds, the move is to throw some coin at a Denver defensive player. Manning is +275 at this price so you're getting better odds than a Denver win, but not exponentially considering he might go low in terms of production.
Otherwise, steer clear because the price for guys on the Carolina side, outside of lobbing money on Kuechly/Davis, isn't ideal.
