Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston (turf, roof could be closed)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Texans by 9
Forecast: Temperatures in the 60s, 60 percent chance of precipitation
Records: Texans (11-2, AFC South 4-0); Colts (9-4, AFC South 3-1)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 22, 2011: Colts 19, Texans 16; Sept. 11, 2011: Texans 34, Colts 7. Series record: Colts lead 17-3.
What matters: The Texans will play the Colts twice in the final three weeks of the season, and Houston can clinch the AFC South title with a win over Indianapolis on Sunday. More importantly, the Texans can maintain their lead over the rest of the AFC for the top spot and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their margin for error decreased last week after losing 42-14 at New England. Houston was outplayed in that game and will have to bounce back Sunday against a young Colts team that has won seven of its last eight games.
Who matters: RB Arian Foster has run for just 84 yards on 29 carries in the past two games. Foster needs to get back on track for Houston to be at its best offensively. QB Matt Schaub did not play well last week, throwing for 232 yards and a costly first-half interception. DE J.J. Watt is second in the NFL with 16.5 sacks, and he leads all defensive linemen with 15 passes defended.
Key matchups: The Texans' defense has been roughed up of late, giving up 30 points and 336.3 passing yards per game in the past four games. Now, Houston’s secondary faces Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck, who has more than lived up to preseason expectations. Luck is eighth in the NFL with 291.7 passing yards per game, and he ranks second in passes thrown per game (41.3).
Injuries of note: OLB Brooks Reed is still out with a groin injury he suffered on Thanksgiving at Detroit. CB Alan Ball (foot) and LB Darryl Sharpton (toe) missed practice on Thursday and will be game-time decisions. RT Derek Newton (knee) and TE Garrett Graham (concussion) should be back this week after missing Monday’s game at New England.
Inside stuff: Texans rookie OLB Whitney Mercilus has six sacks, tying Reed’s rookie franchise record from a year ago. Mercilus tied the record despite only starting two games.
Connections: Texans general manager Rick Smith played football at Purdue in 1991 with Colts general manager Ryan Grigson. Smith also served as a graduate assistant and defensive backs coach while Grigson played at Purdue until 1994.
Stat you should know: Luck has been sacked 32 times this season. Heading into this week, only two quarterbacks -- Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers -- have been sacked more. Houston has 37 sacks this year but managed to get to Tom Brady just once on Monday night.
Bulletin board quote: WR Andre Johnson on how the team will bounce back from the loss at New England: “I have no doubt on how we will respond on Sunday. Period. You guys can say what you want, think what you want, just watch us on Sunday and see what happens.”
Looking ahead: The Texans take on the Vikings at home next week before traveling to face the Colts in the regular-season finale. Minnesota and Indianapolis are fighting for playoff spots while Houston is still trying to clinch the top overall seed in the AFC.
Prediction: Texans 31, Colts 17
Follow Texans blogger Sean Bielawski on Twitter @CBSTexans.
