The 2022 NASCAR playoffs continue on Sunday with the 2022 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway beginning the Round of 8. Four drivers were eliminated from championship contention after last week's race at the Charlotte Roval, including defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson. After winning 10 times in 2021, Larson only managed a pair of victories this season with NASCAR's next-gen car creating more parity in the sport and making it harder for top teams like Hendrick Motorsports to dominate.
However, that hasn't stopped Chase Elliott from winning five times this year. The current leader in the 2022 NASCAR standings is listed at 10-1 in the 2022 South Point 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Denny Hamlin is currently seventh in the standings but the defending champion of the South Point 400 is listed as the 11-2 favorite in the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. Before scouring the 2022 South Point 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Las Vegas picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season.
So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan and then last week it was high on Tyler Reddick before he won at Texas for a 12-1 payout. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 South Point 400 leaderboard.
Top 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions
For the 2022 South Point 400, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 10-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After capturing a victory in each of the last five seasons, Blaney remains winless in 2022 but his seven stage wins are tied with Martin Truex Jr. for the most in NASCAR this year.
Blaney was technically eliminated from the postseason because of his lack of a victory but got back into the 2022 NASCAR playoffs because Kurt Busch wasn't cleared to compete. Blaney has now made his way into the Round of 8 for the third time in his career. Blaney is currently fifth in the 2022 NASCAR standings and is three points behind Christopher Bell for a top-four spot that would get him into the finale at Phoenix. He's finished top-10 in eight of his 12 career starts in Las Vegas and is a solid bet to work his way toward the front again on Sunday. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.
And a massive shocker: Reddick, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 South Point 400 starting lineup. Reddick has gone from up-and-comer to one of NASCAR's brightest young star with three victories on the season but inconsistency has plagued the 26-year-old.
He's finished outside the top 20 on 14 occasions through his first 32 starts and was eliminated after the first round of the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs because of a 35th-place finish at Kansas and a 25th-place finish at Bristol. Reddick has never been inside the top five in five career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. See which other favorites to avoid here.
How to make 2022 NASCAR Las Vegas picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the South Point 400 2022? And which longshots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest NASCAR at Las Vegas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR Las Vegas leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season.
2022 South Point 400 odds, field
See full NASCAR Las Vegas picks, best bets, and predictions here
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Tyler Reddick 13-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Christopher Bell 8-1
Kyle Busch 9-1
Ross Chastain 19-2
Martin Truex Jr. 19-2
Chase Elliott 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Brad Keselowski 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
AJ Allmendinger 100-1
Aric Almirola 200-1
Ricky Stenhouse 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Cole Custer 500-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Landon Cassill 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
