We nearly made it to the deadline with a true blockbuster, but the Astros and Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world by agreeing to a last-minute deal to send Zack Greinke to Houston.
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This is one of those deals where the obvious headline also doesn't need much analysis. You know Zack Greinke. Zack Greinke is good at pitching. One of the best in the world, in fact, despite our annual handwringing about whether this is finally the year he falls off.
It wasn't, and it almost certainly won't be now that he's in Houston. The Astros have a well-established track record for wringing the absolute most possible out of pitchers, and they'll probably figure out some way to help Greinke stave off his decline for another half-decade or so, give or take. It's just what they do.
The Diamondbacks' side is probably the more interesting one for us to look at, then. The Astros didn't give up their biggest prospects, but they still had to part with quite a bit in a package featuring Seth Beer, Josh Rojas, Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas. Let's break down each one by one, along with their chances of making an impact for 2019 or beyond:
- Beer — An 80-grade name who might be better served going back to the American League in the long run, but who also might have the kind of bat that makes you forget about defense. He crushed Class A Fayatteville, hitting .328/.414/.602, and hasn't slowed down since getting to Double-A. At Corpus Christi, he has hit .299/.407/.543 with 16 homers in 63 games, and with a more-than passable 20.7% strikeout rate, too. It's not out of the question we see Beer in Arizona sometime this season, though that would probably require them to give up on Christian Walker. He'll be worth owning someday soon, but unless we get word he's coming to the majors, it's not quite yet.
- Josh Rojas — One of the few hitters in the Astros' farm system who has outperformed Beer, Rojas has both an incredibly Fantasy-friendly profile and potentially a clearer path to everyday playing time, thanks to the fact he has spent at least 100 innings this season at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and left field. Rojas wasn't really on any prospect radars before the season, but hitting .315/.403/.575 between Double-A and Triple-A with 20 homers, 32 steals, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts sure has put him on my radar, even as a 25-year-old. If this breakout is even close to for real, he'll be worth adding as soon as the Diamondbacks decide to get him in the majors.
- J.B. Bukauskas — Of the two pitchers the Diamondbacks acquired, Bukauskas was certainly the more well regarding coming into the season, as a 2017 first-round pick coming off a 2.14 ERA in 59 innings in 2018. It's been a rough season for Bukauskas, who has a 5.25 ERA and 54 walks in 85.2 innings in Double-A, but I've seen no indication that his mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider have gone anywhere, so this could just be a case of growing pains. Either way, it seems exceedingly unlikely this 22-year-old will see the majors in 2019.
- Corbin Martin — We saw a bit of Martin in 2019, but it's the last we'll see for a while, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in early July. We may not see him back in the majors until 2021.
