Pitching Forecaster: Jays aren't joking around

Sometimes pitching just can't be explained. Like the Toronto Blue Jays for instance. Somehow they are getting production behind AL Cy Young front-runner Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.78).

Sure, Halladay is incredible with his 31-3, 268-inning and 225-strikeout pace. But please try and tell us you saw Scott Richmond (4-2, 2.78), Brian Tallet (2-2, 4.47), Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60) and Brett Cecil (2-0, 1.80) helping lead the Blue Jays to the top of the AL Beast.

Save for top prospect Cecil, you couldn't have possibly seen this coming.

Heck, even the Rays rotation of James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine made sense, leading the upstart AL East champions a year ago. Richmond-Tallet-Ray-Cecil just doesn't make sense.

Which means it will all come crashing down once the season hits the summer months. We consider the summer beginning after Memorial Day. That comes on Monday.

Richmond, a 29-year-old rookie, looks like a world-beater. He was never this good in the minors. Tallet, 31, was merely a decent middle reliever.

Ray, 25, is a decent prospect, while Cecil, 22, is an elite one, but he had an 8.31 ERA and a .301 batting-average against through three Triple-A starts before his call-up. Naturally, that would lead you to believe he was going to be this good in the majors (2-0, 1.80).

Stats lie in small sample sizes.

The Blue Jays have been great with the bats, and having that run support really takes the pressure off, but the formula of Halladay, three rookies and a lefty reliever is not one that will last -- nor will the struggles of the AL East aces CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kazmir.

You can ride these guys while they are hot, if you picked them up off waivers, but in the end we see a staff of .500 pitchers ... at best. Of course, if Halladay goes 31-3, the Blue Jays could finish 27 games over .500, win 94 and the AL wild card.

Don't count on that either.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Week 8 two-starter(s): Davis and Augenstein. A Monday rainout and Wednesday doubleheader could change things, but these two figure to be two-start pitchers next week at this point. They pitch Tuesday and Wednesday this week and need a good outing to be anything more than a questionable option best left for the deepest of leagues.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder) and Yusmeiro Petit (shoulder). They are not close to returning at this point, but Webb could be a factor by June.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. They need a No. 6 starter, but it isn't likely to be Parker (3-2, 1.83 between high Class A and Double-A). It is more likely to be Juan Gutierrez out of the bullpen.

Atlanta Braves

Week 8 two-starter(s): Vazquez and Medlen. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday. Vazquez is likely a must-start, while Medlen has the potential to be a sleeper for deeper leagues if he debuts well. His second start could go to Glavine.
Starters on the DL: Tom Glavine (shoulder, elbow) and Tim Hudson (elbow). Glavine is targeting a return at the end of Fantasy Week 8 (May 25-31). Hudson won't be ready before August, unless it is as a middle reliever.
Starters to watch in the minors: Tommy Hanson. They chose Medlen for now, but Hanson could be a factor come June 1, especially if Medlen struggles and/or Glavine has a serious setback.

Baltimore Orioles

Week 8 two-starter(s): Guthrie and perhaps Eaton. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday, although there is thought a prospect might be brought up to replace Eaton. Regardless, the Orioles starters have to be considered risky options even in AL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton, Brandon Erbe and David Hernandez. Reports are Hernandez and Patton could get the first calls, but Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz are the prospects really worth anticipating still. The others will be nothing more than risky AL-only Fantasy starters.

Boston Red Sox

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka, expected to return this weekend vs. the Mets.
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny

Week 8 two-starter(s): Penny and Lester. They have had their struggles, but they pitch Wednesday and Thursday and could be advisable options with decent outings vs. the Blue Jays.
Starters on the DL: John Smoltz (shoulder). His timetable has pushed him back until late June, but by real no fault of his own. The Red Sox just have depth right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa. Justin Masterson moves back to the bullpen to accommodate Dice-K, so one of these red-hot prospects will serve as the Red Sox's de facto No. 6 starter going forward. Buchholz and Bowden are pitching well enough to start in the major leagues right now. There just is no room for them.

Chicago Cubs

Carlos Zambrano, expected to return May 22 at San Diego.
Rich Harden
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Sean Marshall

Week 8 two-starter(s): Dempster and likely Marshall. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday, with Marshall pitching for his rotation spot over Randy Wells. Dempster is advisable with a decent outing at St. Louis, while Marshall is a nice sleeper if he pitches well. A bad outing could make Wells an NL-only flier again.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeff Samardzija and Mitch Atkins. Wells gets the first look in the rotation, if they chose to move away from Marshall in the No. 5 starter's spot.

Chicago White Sox

Week 8 two-starter(s): Danks. He pitches Wednesday vs. the Twins amid a slump, but he could prove to be an advisable option if he does well.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda and Jose A. Contreras. Poreda (3-3, 2.52 with 0 HRA in 39 1/3 Double-A innings) gets time with the recent solid start by Richard, while the White Sox have said they will give Contreras another chance before the All-Star break. After a one-hit, complete-game shutout Monday in Triple-A, it might not be long before Contreras returns. He hasn't allowed a run in two starts (15 innings) thus far.

Cincinnati Reds

Week 8 two-starter(s): Harang. The rejuvenated ace is a must-start if he does well Wednesday vs. the Phillies.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson. Bailey (3-5, 4.57) has been very good after a slow start, but they don't appear to need a starter right now.

Cleveland Indians

Week 8 two-starter(s): Carmona and Pavano. They are questionable options unless they are lights out Wednesday and Thursday at Kansas City.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow) and Scott Lewis (elbow). They are not better than late June returnees at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeremy Sowers and Charles Lofgren. Sowers failed in his latest test, while Huff gets his shot right now. Lofgren could be the next on call.

Colorado Rockies

Week 8 two-starter(s): De La Rosa. He has been surprisingly effective, but he remains a questionable option even if he pitches well Wednesday at Atlanta.
Starters on the DL: Franklin Morales (shoulder) and Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season). Morales is working his way back for a June return, but he won't be an option in Fantasy Week 8 (May 25-31).
Starters to watch in the minors: Greg Smith, Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds, Jhoulys Chacin and Keith Weiser. Smith finally made his debut (1-0, 3.00 in Double-A) and could be a factor in deeper leagues come June. Track his progess if you have a need for a stashee in deeper NL-only or long-term keeper leagues.

Detroit Tigers

Week 8 two-starter(s): Verlander and Jackson. They will be must-start options with decent starts Wednesday and Thursday vs. the potent Rangers.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder). He is working on a rehab assignment, but he apparently needs time to get his velocity over 90 mph again. Consider him a potential mid-June sleeper.
Starters to watch in the minors: Scot Drucker and Chris Lambert. Nate Robertson is on the DL and would get moved back into the rotation if thhey have a need and Bonderman doesn't fill it. Their prospects are not intriguing.

Florida Marlins

Week 8 two-starter(s): Volstad. He is an advisable option with a decent start Wednesday vs. the D-Backs.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) and Rick VandenHurk (elbow). The reports are Sanchez might be back before the All-Star break now, while VandenHurk could be a factor come mid-June. They need the help in the back end of the rotation right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Sean West, Ryan Tucker, Brett Sinkbeil and Aaron Thompson. Their struggles will force the Marlins to use Badenhop and likely Penn out of the bullpen as starters this week. A Wednesday doubleheader after the Monday rainout necessitates a six-man rotation. Cristhian Martinez (4-2, 1.84 in Double-A) could be an interesting sleeper for a call-up in the short term.

Houston Astros

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Mike Hampton
Brian Moehler
Felipe Paulino

Week 8 two-starter(s): Rodriguez. He is perhaps a must-start option with another solid start Wednesday vs. the Brewers.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Backe (side). Backe can take the rotation spot of Paulino at the end of Fantasy Week 8 (May 25-31). Consider him a risky NL-only option. Paulino will head back to the bullpen.
Starters to watch in the minors: Bud Norris. Norris, 24, has been solid in Triple-A (1-2, 2.61 with a .232 batting-average against). He won't get a look before Backe at this point, but he could be intriguing this summer.

Kansas City Royals

Week 8 two-starter(s): Meche. He has been struggling, but he can return to being an advisable two-starter with a rebound start vs. the Indians on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Danny Cortes. The Royals are more likely to consider Sidney Ponson or Horacio Ramirez if Hochevar cannot right himself in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels

Week 8 two-starter(s): Santana. He is likely a must-start option after he pitches Wednesday at Seattle.
Starters on the DL: Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) and Dustin Moseley (elbow). Escobar could return in mid-June, but the Angels are trying to make sure he can handle the high pitch counts of starting. Otherwise, they appear willing to consider him as a reliever. Moseley is likely a reliever once he returns, but that doesn't appear likely before late June.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden, Sean O'Sullivan, Anthony Ortega and Trevor Reckling. Shane Loux is the Angels' de facto No. 6 starter working in long relief right now and the Angels have to cross their fingers they won't need their organizational depth much more this season. If they do, Walden is the most intriguing long term.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Week 8 two-starter(s): Stults and perhaps Milton. Billingsley could be moved back from a Sunday start due to Stults' questionable status for Wednesday that could affect the rotation. Stults and Milton would be at best questionable options, regardless.
Starters on the DL: Hiroki Kuroda (shoulder) and Jason Schmidt (shoulder). Schmidt is on a rehab assignment, while Kuroda starts one Friday. They could be factors in June, but they likely won't be ready in Fantasy Week 8 (May 25-31). Keep them stashed for now. They are nice sleepers for NL-only formats and maybe even mixed leagues if they can get their velocity over 90 mph consistently.
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom and James McDonald. The Dodgers like Lindblom so much, they expect he will help the team at least out of the bullpen later this year. He is a rare young strike-thrower. McDonald struggled in his first Triple-A start and could use a couple solid months back in the minors right now.

Milwaukee Brewers

Week 8 two-starter(s): Gallardo. He is likely a must-start option after he pitches Wednesday at Houston.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeremy Jeffress. He has struggled of late, but the Brewers have five solid starters right now and haven't needed depth.

Minnesota Twins

Scott Baker
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey
Nick Blackburn
TBD, R.A. Dickey is an option out of long relief if they don't want to go to a prospect.

Week 8 two-starter(s): Liriano and Blackburn. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday at the Chicago White Sox. Liriano figures to be a must-start option, while Blackburn can be a sleeper to use in deeper leagues if he pitches well.
Starters on the DL: Glen Perkins (elbow) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Anthony Swarzak and Kevin Mulvey. One of them could be on call for the No. 5 spot as soon as Saturday. Swarzak is pitching better, but Mulvey was a key piece in the Johan Santana deal.

New York Mets

Week 8 two-starter(s): Maine. He is an advisable option after pitching Tuesday night in Los Angeles.
Starters on the DL: Oliver Perez (knee). He is working in extended spring and could start a rehab assignment by June. That makes him no better than a mid-June returnee at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jonathon Niese, Bradley Holt and Tobi Stoner. Niese is the only one really expected to help at this point, but Holt is a better long-term prospect.

New York Yankees

Week 8 two-starter(s): Sabathia or Wang. If the Yankees chose to slot Wang over the weekend, then Sabathia will move back to be a two-start pitcher. Wang could be the two-start pitcher if they just chose to slot him on Hughes' next turn. Hughes is pitching for his rotation spot Wednesday vs. the Orioles, but frankly, he might get sent down even after a no-hitter.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (hip). He is expected to return this weekend vs. the Phillies or next Monday at Texas.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kei Igawa. There is no chance the Yankees go back to the well on Igawa. Hughes is likely headed back to Triple-A to be the de facto No. 6 starter. The loss of Ian Kennedy, perhaps for the season, really hurts their depth.

Oakland Athletics

Week 8 two-starter(s): Anderson. He is a high-risk option even with a solid start at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. The rookie has been too erratic. He is closer to a demotion to the minors than a promotion to your Fantasy lineup.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow). He is not yet ready for a rehab assignment, so he is still no better than a mid-June returnee. The A's struggling rotation will need him, so forget the talk he might return in the bullpen right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and James J. Simmons. It is likely Tuesday call-up Edgar G. Gonzalez gets the nod in the No. 5 rotation spot now that Gonzalez and Gallagher have been sent back to the minors.

Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels
Brett Myers
Jamie Moyer
Joe Blanton
J.A. Happ, expected to join the rotation Saturday at the N.Y. Yankees.

Week 8 two-starter(s): Moyer. He is at best a questionable option amid his troubling start to the season.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Drabek. They have finally made the move to Happ, so he will get a month of starts. The hottest of these prospects -- Savery or Drabek (3-0, 2.51 in Double-A) -- could be ready to contribute.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 8 two-starter(s): Maholm. He is a questionable option, but you might take the risk on him if he pitches well Wednesday at Washington.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He could start a rehab assignment in June, but we doubt he proves useful this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. Tom Gorzelanny was called up for long relief, but he is likely the No. 6 starter if the Pirates need one this season.

San Diego Padres

Week 8 two-starter(s): Gaudin. He is not better than a questionable option even with a solid outing vs. the Giants on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Walter Silva (forearm), Shawn Hill (elbow) and Cha Seung Baek (elbow). Silva could be ready in June, Hill hopes to be, while Baek had a setback and might not return before the All-Star break at this point. They are hardly worth stashing on DL spots even in NL-only formats.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt, Wade LeBlanc, William Inman and perhaps Mark Prior. Inman (4-1, 3.05) is pitching well in Double-A, so he could move up to Triple-A, but scouts have never really been in love with his stuff. He does throw strikes, though. Silva will be the first to get a rotation look at this point still.

San Francisco Giants

Week 8 two-starter(s): Sanchez. He could be a sleeper for mixed leagues if he pitches well Wednesday at San Diego.
Starters on the DL: Noah Lowry (elbow, shoulder, might be out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson and Kevin Pucetas. Bumgarner (5-1, 1.24 ERA between high Class A and Double-A) and Alderson (2-1, 3.21) have made successful leaps to Double-A at a very young ages (19 and 20, respectively) and could be factors this summer. They are enormous prospects in keeper leagues.

Seattle Mariners

Week 8 two-starter(s): Maybe Jakubauskas. He starts Monday, but the Mariners could skip him and/or slot Ryan Rowland-Smith off a rehab assignment at the end of the week. We don't see Jakubauskas making two starts. You shouldn't trust him in any league regardless.
Starters on the DL: Ryan Rowland-Smith (biceps), Carlos Silva (shoulder) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season). Rowland-Smith is starting a rehab assignment Saturday. He could return in Jakubauskas' spot after Monday's start.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. With Phillipe Aumont moved to relief, their starting depth will come from the bullpen or the DL. None of it is all that exciting, although Vargas has been decent as a rotation fill-in.

St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter, expected to return from the DL on Wednesday vs. the Chicago Cubs.
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro

Week 8 two-starter(s): Carpenter. With a decent start off the DL on Wednesday, even if it is an abbreviated one, Carpenter has to be considered a must-start, two-starter.
Starters on the DL: Chris Carpenter (oblique) and Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season). Carpenter is back Wednesday and for two starts next week.
Starters to watch in the minors: Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen. Boggs was serviceable as a fill-in, but these guys really aren't prospects worth stashing.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 8 two-starter(s): Kazmir and Garza. They are advisable options with solid starts Wednesday and Thursday vs. the A's. Kazmir has struggled mightily, so watch him closely if you have been getting burned by him to date.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Price and Wade Davis. Price was magnificent in his past start, but Niemann was also effective, so that June 1 call-up might require Price replacing another starter. Be patient Price owners. the good news is they are limiting him to around five innings per start. That means more innings for the major leagues once he does arrive.

Texas Rangers

Week 8 two-starter(s): Harrison. With another solid outing Wednesday at Detroit, he could prove to be an advisable two-start pitcher. That is a real impressive claim for that young sleeper from how he began the season.
Starters on the DL: Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz, Michael Main, Tommy Hunter, Thomas Diamond and Kasey Kiker. With the exception of Kiker (3-2, 2.54 in Double-A), the organizational depth guys are outpitching the prospects. Fortunately, the Rangers actually haven't needed starters of late.

Toronto Blue Jays

Roy Halladay
Scott Richmond
Brett Cecil
Robert Ray
Brian Tallet

Week 8 two-starter(s): Cecil. He has been dynamite, so he can prove to be a nice sleeper if he pitches well again Wednesday at Boston.
Starters on the DL: Jesse Litsch (forearm), Dustin McGowan (shoulder) and Shaun Marcum (elbow). Litsch is not ready for a rehab assignment yet, so he is no better than a mid-June returnee. McGowan and Marcum look like they are no better than August returnees, if they pitch at all this year.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ricky Romero, David Purcey, Brad Mills, Casey Janssen and Marc Rzepczynski. Romero hasn't pitched as well in the minors as he did in his three major league starts, but the Blue Jays have such good mojo in the majors right now, they haven't needed these guys yet.

Washington Nationals

Week 8 two-starter(s): Lannan. He will be a questionable option even with a solid start vs. the Pirates on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Scott Olsen (shoulder) and Matt Chico (elbow). Olsen just went on the DL and likely will be out at least a month. Chico is no better than a second-half returnee.
Starters to watch in the minors: Josh Smoker and Colton Willems. Detwiler made a solid debut and could stick around in the rotation right now. Stephen Strasburg is still pitching for San Diego State, but many eyes will be on the starts he makes in the collegiate postseason -- next up is the Mountain West Tournament.

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