Beware the ides to May. They are soon upon us in Fantasy and major league organizations. We won't be slaying Julius Caesar, but super prospects will be threatening to stab organizations in their bank accounts.
It's the time of the year when we see elite prospects starting to arrive, even if June 1 is the safest bet. The important note is the difference in money a young superstar will make a few years from now is a lot different than if they are called up in early May vs. mid-May or later.
Fantasy fans, we reintroduce to you the "Super Two" phenomenon. It has perplexed Fantasy owners in the modern era who anxious wait for the elite callups.
In baseball, you control players for three years before arbitration and three years of arbitration before they are eligible to file for free agency in Year 7. A player becomes eligible for free agency a year earlier if they fit in the category of "Super Two."
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo did the best job yet at clarifying it Thursday morning, pointing to three case studies from the 2007 season who qualify as Fantasy stars: Tim Lincecum, Mark Reynolds and Ryan J. Braun.
While Braun might be the best Fantasy player of that trio, it is Lincecum who makes seven times more than him and almost 11 times more than Reynolds this season.
These are three early-round Fantasy picks this spring in Year 4, so why the huge discrepency in salary? Lincecum was called up before mid-May (three years ago Thursday to be exact), while Reynolds arrived 10 days later and Braun nine days later than that.
The timing of Lincecum's call-up put him in the top 17 percent of his class in terms of service time and forcing him into salary arbitration a year earlier than Reynolds or Braun. Mayo reports: "The cut-off for the top 17 percent has been around two years, 130 days of total service, though the days fluctuate from year to year."
That crucial time is mid-May. Ah, we need to beware like Caesar.
Lincecum was in his second year of arbitration, where salaries tend to spike, and he was signed to a long-term deal. Braun and Reynolds are in multiyear deals, too, but they make far less in what is their first year of arbitration. Just a few days and weeks difference in arrival date can make millions of dollars difference in salaries in Years 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Last week we broke down 10 players who could get May callups: Starlin Castro, Chris Tillman, Michael Stanton, Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Cahill and Brad Bergesen. Of those, Tillman, Posey, Cahill and Bergesen already have some service time, and no organization would really be worried about the future salaries of Cahill or Bergesen.
So, let's safely assume the red-hot Stanton, Strasburg (starting in Triple-A on Friday), Chapman, Santana and Arrieta have no chance of arriving in the next 1-2 weeks. Calling those players up before then will cost the Marlins, Nationals, Reds, Indians and Orioles -- not exactly sprend-thrift organizations -- millions more in years 2013-16. The organizations won't take the risk.
"When I had good clubs, it never crossed my mind," former GM and MLB Network analyst John Hart told MLB.com. "When I felt we were growing or building and a guy could use more development time, I'll admit, I did pay more attention to it because he was going to fit for a longer period of time."
So, among those rookie debuts already in the majors and headed for Super Two status and huge paydays a year earlier: Jason Heyward, Mike Leake, Ike Davis and Justin Smoak. Those latter two arrived in mid-April because of the struggling placeholders on hopeful contenders. The first two made the team out of spring training and they expect to pay the premium a year sooner.
"If your club is a competitive club and you think this player is going to be an integral part of a competitive team, I'm not sure how you face the other 24 players, the staff, the fans and say, 'We're going to keep him in the minor leagues,'" Braves GM Frank Wren told MLB.com. "I can't do that. We'll figure out his contract way down the road."
Among the most-owned minor leaguers on CBSSports.com, only the Giants' Posey, the Rays' Desmond Jennings and perhaps the Cubs' Castro are a part of organizations with more to lose than just dollars a few years from now. We can safely assume those players are not ready.
Further, the Super Two phenomenon can help explain why the likes of the Jays' Brett Wallace and Oakland's Chris C. Carter haven't been considered for a promotion just yet.
That will all change in 10 days, if teams want to make some educated guess on the 17 percent of the debuting class of 2010, or after June 1 if the teams just want to be more certain they aren't costing themselves a year of control.
Ah, those ides of May, beware. (Yes, we know Caesar was slain in March, not May.)
A shout out to relievers
If you are in a deeper league that values middle relievers, pay some special attention to the hot streaks of Milwaukee farmhand Zach Braddock, the Rangers' Tanner Scheppers and the Cubs' Andrew Cashner. These guys could be impact relief callups and potential sleepers for saves down the road.
Braddock is the closest to the majors and the struggles of Trevor Hoffman makes him a potential closer before the end of the year. The Rangers are toggling between Frank Francisco and Neftali Feliz, so Scheppers is less likely a candidate for saves before the year is out. Additionally, the Cubs will likely juggle Carlos Marmol and Carlos Zambrano as their primary options for saves. Cashner, though, could arrive and allow Zambrano to return to the rotation late this year, perhaps.
It is tough to wait on relief prospects, and all three could start long term, but any arrival this year would be in the bullpen right now.
Prospect watch
Every week we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
Rookie watch
Top AL rookies to date
- Austin Jackson, OF, DET -- Even if it won't last, he has been way, way better than Curtis Granderson has for the Yankees.
- Wade Davis, SP, TB -- Other Rays pitching prospects arrived with more hype, but few have been this good right away.
- Neftali Feliz, RP, TEX -- He has kept the closer's role through thick and thin and there doesn't seem to be a change coming.
- Brian Matusz, SP, BAL -- It wasn't his strikeout rate we liked, but he is leading all rookies with 31 Ks through Wednesday.
- Brennan Boesch, OF, DET -- An injury opened a door this potential slugger doesn't look ready to close anytime soon.
- Honorable mentions: Alfredo Simon, RP, BAL; Mitch Talbot, SP, CLE; Reid Brignac, 2B, TB; John Jaso, C, TB; Joaquin Arias, 2B, TEX; Scott Sizemore, 2B, DET; Sergio J. Santos, RP, CHW; and Alex Burnett, RP, MIN.
Top NL rookies to date
- Jason Heyward, OF, ATL -- He has gotten over his first significant slump in the majors; this year's Braun-impact rookie.
- Jaime Garcia, SP, STL -- We aren't sure how long he can sustain this dominance, but you have to start him in all leagues.
- David Freese, 3B, STL -- Hot streak makes him an add in all leagues and he might even be a must-start when going well.
- Mike Leake, SP, CIN -- He commands his breaking stuff like a five-year veteran; he isn't lightning but he's still special.
- Ian Desmond, SS, WAS -- He is a bit streaky, but it is looking like his career is just getting started as a Fantasy SS gem.
- Honorable mentions: Tyler Colvin, OF, CHC; Ike Davis, 1B, NYM; Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL; Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA; Eric O. Young, 2B, COL; Jhoulys Chacin, SP, COL; Jonathon Niese, SP, NYM; Hisanori Takahashi, RP, NYM; Cesar Valdez, SP, ARI; and Dan Runzler, RP, SF.
Newbie needs
The Durantula: I've got the top waiver spot in my 14-team keeper league and I'm holding out for Bryce Harper. Any idea when we can expect him in the player pool? Is last year's date of May 26 for Strasburg a reasonable reference point?
Emack: Well, no. We won't be adding any of the first-round picks until they official sign with major league clubs after the draft. We might revisit adding players who are drafted in Round 1 right after the First Year Player Draft, because of the unlikelihood they wouldn't sign, but as of now, CBSSports.com has no plans to add drafted players until they sign with a major league team. That was the policy installed after Strasburg last year.
Mike: I had a question about outfielder Carlos Peguero for Seattle playing at West Tenn. Last year he put up great numbers in High A and this year great numbers at Double-A; yet, Alex Liddi gets the attention and Peguero has outplayed him the past two years. Why does this guy get no mention?
Emack: Well, a lot of the mainstream prospect knowledge comes from Baseball America and their annual rankings. They didn't list Peguero in their top 30 Mariners prospects going into the spring. Peguero's power streak gave him an appearance in their Prospect Hot Sheet last Friday, which led to him getting added in 1 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues. He is managing his strikeout rate and it isn't coming at the expense of power. We have to figure Peguero can make a Chris Davis-like rise to prominence this summer now.
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