The Falcons had a historic 2016 season -- and then the Super Bowl happened. The team is now faced with having to start over and make another championship run, a daunting task but one they'll do with most of the same offensive players they had.
The same can't be said for their coaching staff. Following the Super Bowl, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left to lead the 49ers and was replaced by former collegiate coach and playcaller Steve Sarkisian. He's keeping Shanahan's playbook but will orchestrate the offense as he sees fit. In the past when new coaches work from previous coaches' playbooks, growing pains happen. After Atlanta scored 540 points -- tied for seventh-most all-time in a single season -- no one can help but think they take at least a small step back in 2017.
The same can be said for Matt Ryan, who faces a troubling trend when it comes to recent NFL MVPs. Each of the last four quarterbacks to win the award has regressed the following year. Some were still very good for Fantasy, but none reached the numbers they had the year prior. Considering how bad Ryan was heading into 2016, and how incredible his numbers would up being, there's a good chance he could disappoint after landing career-highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and interceptions (seven).
But he still has a solid offensive line in front of him and a good group of talent to throw to. Julio Jones is an obvious stud, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are nice supporting receivers, Austin Hooper has a chance to take a step forward in his career and his top two running backs -- 85 catches between them -- will also contribute.
Because Atlanta's defense is good but not great, owners should expect plenty of high-scoring games. Will they average nearly 34 points per game? Probably not, but they'll still visit the end zone plenty of times. No one should be scared of a major regression from the Falcons.
Bust: Tevin Coleman
Chances are Coleman will get overdrafted. He finished last season as a No. 2 Fantasy rusher despite averaging 11.5 touches per game. How did he do it? Touchdowns, and a lot of them. Eleven to be exact, with seven coming from inside the 10-yard line. Coleman's a good rusher but so long as Devonta Freeman is in front of him, his workload will be capped. If he doesn't score as many times in 2017 then he obviously won't be worth a pick in Rounds 4 through 6.
Deep Sleeper: Taylor Gabriel
If you like big-play receivers and don't mind taking chances with your late-round picks, Gabriel should be on your wish list. Playing opposite Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu opens things up for him downfield, particularly with Sanu doing more work within 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. The type of coverage he'll get won't be particularly stiff, giving him chances at scoring on a long pass any given week. Take into account the changing secondaries in the NFC South and the 10 games he'll play indoors this season and Gabriel is worth rostering as an occasional starter in any league. Take him with a late-round pick.
Sleeper: Austin Hooper
No one should confuse Austin Hooper with Travis Kelce or Kyle Rudolph or even Martellus Bennett, but Hooper has legit late-round appeal. Expected to get on more work in the Falcons' explosive offense, Hooper should take advantage of single coverage, especially in the red zone, thanks to his 6-foot-3 frame. Though he didn't get a ton of targets, he did own a 70.4 percent catch rate and scored in two games of three with five-plus targets. At worst a touchdown-or-bust tight end, Hooper could be a factor as soon as Week 1 against an iffy Chicago Bears defense. If you end up streaming your tight ends, begin the year with Hooper.
