There are four clear-cut rebuilding clubs in MLB heading into the 2016 season: the Braves, Brewers, Phillies, and Reds. The Padres and Rockies could also be considered rebuilding, though they've yet to commit to a full blown tear-down like the other four clubs. All six of those teams are in the NL, interestingly enough.
Rebuilds can be painful -- especially for folks who watch every single game -- but the promise of a better future allows everyone to keep the faith. When will the future come? That's the million-dollar question. Teams hate to discuss timetables even if they have one internally. Theo Epstein admitted last year his Cubs are ahead of schedule; he didn't expect them to contend until 2016.
Those four rebuilding teams all figure to be very bad in 2016 -- our SportsLine projections don't expect any to lose fewer than 91 games this summer -- and it appears their timetables for contention are different. Trying to figure out that timetable is an exercise in futility, though that's never stopped us before. Here's a look at when those rebuilding teams may be ready to contend.
ATLANTA BRAVES
SportsLine projected 2016 record: 61-101
Baseball America farm system rank: 3
When can they contend again? 2018
Among the four rebuilding teams, the Braves have undergone the most extreme tear-down, with GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart trading away even young core players like Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller. They're fully committed to this rebuild.
As a result, Atlanta has arguably the best farm system in baseball, one loaded with pitching prospects and near MLB-ready position player talent like Dansby Swanson and Mallex Smith. Young pitching is the best currency in baseball and the Braves have it in spades. Expect to see them flip some of those arms to fill their position player needs soon.
On top of that great farm system, the Braves also have several young big league players under long-term control who can be part of the next great Braves team. I'm talking specifically about Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte. Freeman is the oldest of the group at 26, and all three are under contractual control through at least 2020.
The Braves have a young core at the MLB level and they have plenty of prospects, many of whom will arrive in the big leagues this season. I don't think Atlanta can turn things around in time for the open of SunTrust Park in 2017, but I do think they'll be in position to make a run at a postseason spot by 2018. They have the upper-level prospects to turn it around sooner rather than later.
CINCINNATI REDS
SportsLine projected 2016 record: 64-98
Baseball America farm system rank: 12
When can they contend again? 2020
The Reds traded away players like Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, and Alfredo Simon last offseason, but it wasn't until last year's trade deadline that they got serious about rebuilding. They traded Johnny Cueto, Marlon Byrd, and Mike Leake in July, then Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman in December. Cincinnati tried to move Brandon Phillips, but he invoked his no-trade clause. They've been unable to find a taker for Jay Bruce so far.
Those trades added some nice depth to the farm system -- they did particularly well with the Cueto deal, I believe -- though they're still a little short on impact prospects. Chapman's trade value was down because of his domestic dispute incident, so they didn't get close to full value for him, and the package they received for Frazier looks underwhelming.
On top of that, the Reds don't have a ton of young building blocks at the MLB level. I love Devin Mesoraco (as long as he's healthy), and Eugenio Suarez looks like a nice little player, but beyond them the Reds have the generally underwhelming Billy Hamilton, some interesting arms in Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan, and 32-year-old Joey Votto.
It's not the greatest core moving foward, and that's why I think the Reds are furthest away from contention among the four rebuilding teams. They either need some of their prospects to turn out better than expected or to nail the next few drafts. In reality, they need both. Hamilton turning into the center field version of Dee Gordon wouldn't hurt either.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
SportsLine projected 2016 record: 71-91
Baseball America farm system rank: 9
When can they contend again? 2019, maaaybe 2018 if a lot goes right
Since being hired in September, new GM David Stearns has made nine trades and claimed five players on waivers. Doug Melvin, the previous GM who is still with the team as an advisor, traded away Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Aramis Ramirez, and Gerardo Parra at the deadline. Lots and lots of wheeling and dealing out of Milwaukee in the last eight months or so.
As a result, the Brewers have one of the deepest and most fascinating farm systems in baseball, led by standout shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Stearns filled big-league roster holes by buying low on former top prospects like Rymer Liriano and Garin Cecchini, and he still has tradeable veterans in Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Garza, and Chris Carter. Some are more valuable that others, obviously. (The Brewers seem stuck with Ryan Braun at this point.)
The Brewers are where the Braves were last year at this time. They've beefed up the farm system and still have some players they can (and likely will) move for prospects, and now they're going to enter the evaluation phase. Which young players on the roster are worth keeping long-term?
I really like what the Brewers have done but also recognize they're still early in their rebuild. They have a chance to hit a home run by trading Lucroy given the dearth of quality catching, and the current prospects they have in house are super intriguing. Young big leaguers like Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann, and Danny Santana can all be long-term solutions too.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
SportsLine projected 2016 record: 69-93
Baseball America farm system rank: 8
When can they contend again? 2018 is doable, 2019 is more likely
The Phillies have torn it all down. There's nothing on the big league roster left to trade at this point. They have a gem of a top prospect in potential franchise shortstop J.P. Crawford, plus a lot of interesting tooled-up prospects not far from MLB. The top of the system is loaded thanks to Crawford, outfielder Nick Williams, and righty Jake Thompson, with the latter two having come over the Cole Hamels trade.
At the big-league level, the Phillies have an offensive building block in third base masher Maikel Franco, plus the makings of a very good young rotation with Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velasquez. Odubel Herrera really opened some eyes in 2015 and forced his way into the long-term picture too. None of those guys are established above-average players yet, but that could very well happen in 2016.
Between those young big leaguers and the prospects, things are finally looking up for the Phillies, who waiting too long to begin their rebuild. They have the young players, and when the time comes to supplement the roster, they have the financial wherewithal to make some noise in free agency.
It goes without saying prospects are suspects until proven otherwise, so rebuilds are always a risky proposition. Everyone likes to point to the Astros and Cubs as evidence of how successful it can be, but we also have to remember that sometimes things don't go according to plan.
On paper, I especially like where the Braves are heading, and I think the Brewers and Phillies are not too far behind, though there's always going to be the risk the young players don't work out as expected. All four of these clubs are several years away from contention. At least now they're on the upswing and actively building their next winning rosters.
