We have reached the fourth quarter of the NFL season and only two teams -- the Panthers and Cardinals -- have clinched playoff spots. Carolina has clinched the NFC South title and Arizona officially became the second NFL team to clinch a postseason berth after beating the Vikings 23-20 on Thursday night. Expect more to join the party in a critical week 14.
1. Officials will once again be in the spotlight: There is no doubt the officials will, as usual, play a big role in the outcome of games this weekend -- like they do every week. I don’t blame the officials for all the mistakes, but they are responsible for getting the calls right -- and playoff berths are on the line. Dean Blandino, the NFL's vice president of officiating, earlier this week said there are four to five mistakes in each game.
Well, considering there are 256 games that means the league expects about 1,152 mistakes. And let's say 10 percent of the mistakes are game-changers. That equates to 115 games at risk. I wonder what games are part of that 115 this weekend?
2. Hot teams no one wants to face: Two of the hottest teams in the NFL are sitting in wild-card spots with little hope of winning their division, but they look like as dangerous as any division leader.
The Chiefs are on a six-game winning streak while averaging 32 points and giving up 13.5 per game. Alex Smith has made 305 passes without an interception, and he is adding a lot more deep balls to his passing game. The Chiefs' final four opponents have a 14-34 record.
The other team is Seattle with Russell Wilson on fire completing 77 percent of his passes from the pocket and 11 touchdown passes in the last three games! For the latest playoff picture, click here.
3. The extra point play is far from a gimme anymore: The NFL got what it wanted when the extra point play was changed. Last week there were nine missed extra points. Also, three extra points blocked and two were returned for defensive points. As for the two-points conversions, there were seven attempts and four were successful.
To date there have been 81 two-point plays and 38 were successful for a 47 percent success rate. The NFL is on pace for 105 two-point attempts. There were 59 attempts last year. Pete Carroll reminded me this week that as the weather changes, there will be more missed kicks and there will be more consideration for the two-point play.
4. Backup rookie running backs: Nine teams have gone to rookie backup running backs because of injuries or lack of production. The reality is the young rookies have responded and none of them are first-round picks.
Thomas Rawls (Seattle), David Johnson (Arizona), Jeremy Langford (Chicago), Matt Jones (Jacksonville), Jay Ajayi (Miami), Karlos Williams (Buffalo), Tevin Coleman (Atlanta), Buck Allen (Baltimore), Ameer Abdullah (Detroit) and throw in second-year back Antonio Andrews (Tennessee) who didn’t carry the ball as a rookie.
The group already has 36 touchdowns. I expect 100 yard rushing days from at least three of these young men in Week 14.
5. Scoring trends: Passing touchdowns are on a record pace in 2015. There are 643 passing touchdowns and we're on pace for 840. Every year since 2011 there has been a steady increase in passing touchdowns and a decrease in rushing touchdowns. In 2011, there were 745 passing touchdowns and this year will see 100 more passing touchdowns and probably 55 less rushing touchdowns.
6. More close games: This year there has been plenty of excitement with all the down-to-the-wire games. We have already seen 17 overtime games with 64 games to go. I have little doubt we will get to 21-22 overtime games. Last year there were just 11 overtime games.
Another indicator of how close games are is the 96 games decided by three or less points. Last year there were 104 games decided by three or less. With 64 games left, expect the 2015 number of three-point games to rise upwards of 120.
In Week 14 we should see at least five games decided by three or less points.
