The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday in a Divisional Round matchup in the NFL playoffs 2023. The Jaguars (10-8) have made the NFL playoff bracket eight times in their history and have advanced to the AFC Championship Game three times. Jacksonville has compiled an 8-7 record in the NFL playoffs and is coming off a 31-30 Wild Card Round win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. The Chiefs (14-3) have also done well in the postseason under Coach Andy Reid, including an 8-3 mark since 2018.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 53. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Jaguars bets or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney has to say.

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He entered the 2022 NFL season 232-204-10 against-the-spread since the start of the 2018 season.

In addition, he is an amazing 33-14 on his last 47 picks in games involving the Jaguars, returning $1,793. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has zoned in on Jaguars vs. Chiefs and just locked in his picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:

  • Jaguars vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -9.5 
  • Jaguars vs. Chiefs over/under: 53 points 
  • Jaguars vs. Chiefs money line: Jacksonville +360, Kansas City -480 
  • JAC: Jaguars are 4-0-1 against the spread against teams with a winning record 
  • KC: Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home playoff games 
  • Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Chiefs can cover

Travis Kelce led all tight ends with 110 catches, tied for the second-most ever by a tight end in a single season, and had 1,338 receiving yards. Kelce had a touchdown catch in all three postseason games last year and has 95 or more receiving yards in six consecutive playoff games, the longest streak in NFL history. He needs 99 receiving yards to surpass Rob Gronkowski (1,389) for the most career postseason receiving yards ever by a tight end.

Kansas City is formidable on defense as well. Defensive tackle Chris Jones tied for fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks during the regular season and is one of five players with seven or more sacks in each of the past five seasons. Jones finished the regular season with a sack in each of the final three games. He had 1.5 sacks in the Week 10 meeting with Jacksonville. See which team covers the spread here.

Why the Jaguars can cover 

Jacksonville was paced by a pair of solid wide receivers, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Kirk led the team with career-highs in catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and receiving touchdowns (8) during the regular season. He had eight catches for 78 yards and a touchdown last week against the Chargers and had a season-best nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 10 meeting at Kansas City. Jones, meanwhile, set career-highs with 82 catches and 823 receiving yards this season. He had eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown last week and is looking for his third postseason game in a row with a receiving score. He had eight catches in the Nov. 13 meeting with the Chiefs.

Defensively, the Jaguars are powered by linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who led the NFL in tackles for the second consecutive year with 184 in 2022. Oluokun led the team with 13 tackles last week against Los Angeles, his 10th game this season with 10 or more tackles, which is tied for the most in the NFL, including the postseason. Linebacker Josh Allen had a sack last week in his first career playoff game and has a tackle for loss in five of his past six games. He had six tackles against Kansas City in the Week 10 meeting. See which team covers the spread here.

How to make Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks

For Sunday's AFC Divisional Round matchup, Tierney is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Jaguars in the NFL playoffs 2023? And what critical X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who's 33-14 on picks involving the Jaguars, and find out.