When Moneyball was published five years ago, we learned a lot of interesting things, like how Scott Hatteberg learned to be a "pickin' machine" at first base or how Chad Bradford learned to throw sidearm. Perhaps most memorably, we learned that Billy Beane had an endearing nickname for Miguel Tejada: "Mr. Swing-at-Everything." Maybe it was having his impatient ways exposed in print, but for whatever reason, Tejada found a way to improve his walk rate to more respectable levels in the years following Moneyball's release, even as he saw fewer pitches per plate appearance. Over the last two seasons, those extra walks and -- more important -- an increased ground ball-to-flyball ratio, have helped Tejada to maintain his Fantasy value while his power was rapidly declining.

Tejada has continued to uphold his Fantasy value this year, but the foundation rests not on power, walks or ground balls, but mainly luck. It looks strange to have a player owned in 99 percent of CBSSports.com leagues on the "Poor Stats, Poor Skills" list, but especially in the second half, Tejada has shown neither the stats nor the skills of a player who should be universally owned. He has just two home runs, 11 RBI, three walks and no steals in 32 games since the All-Star Break. He does own a .323 batting average during that span, but he has an inflated 35 percent H/BIP to thank for that. Tejada could get away with his free-swinging tendencies when he possessed a combination of power and contact skills, but with his post-break sub-.100 Isolated Power, he is really no more useful than Cristian Guzman at this point.

Josh Beckett's performance this year has been enigmatic, though in the opposite way. His mediocre 4.34 ERA just doesn't jibe with his excellent skill ratios, and in fact, his ERC of 3.64 is much closer to what we would expect. If that seems even a little high given Beckett’s eye-popping 4.8 K-to-BB ratio, take into account that he has had some bad luck in the form of a 32 percent H/BIP. Assuming he can return soon from his mysterious arm numbness, make sure to get Beckett back into your rotation. He should be posting an ERA and WHIP going forward that is more in line with what he did last year.

It looks like I was too hasty to give Josh Banks the "Good Stats, Good Skills" label several weeks back. Encouraged by his recent improvements in his minor league numbers, I took Banks' impressive start with the Padres as a sign that he was for real and his improvement was continuing. Overall, his Fantasy and skill stats have been terrible since late June, but for the most part, he has been able to at least maintain his trademark control. That's gone out the window in his last three starts, as Banks has walked 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings. It goes to show that you can't trust a player's minor league progress, especially when that player is repeating Triple-A at age 25. Banks is struggling mightily as he tries to figure things out at the major league level, and he should be avoided except in the deepest of NL-only leagues.

All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, August 23.

'Lucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Lucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado 43% 9.0 Jeff Karstens, SP, Pittsburgh 22% 3.03
Sean Casey, 1B, Boston 40% 6.7 Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City 23% 1.94
Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco 38% 6.1 Brad Ziegler, RP, Oakland 24% 1.61
Jed Lowrie, SS, Boston 37% 5.8 Kevin Gregg, RP, Florida 24% 2.55
Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City 37% 6.4 Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit 24% 3.07
Bryan LaHair, 1B, Seattle 37% 3.6 John Grabow, RP, Pittsburgh 25% 3.56
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Texas 37% 4.4 Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore 25% 2.22
Reed Johnson, OF, Chicago Cubs 37% 6.2 Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Baltimore 25% 3.27
Darin Erstad, OF, Houston 37% 4.6 Joe Saunders, SP, L.A. Angels 26% 3.44
Joe Inglett, 2B, Toronto 35% 6.0 Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston 26% 3.50
Unlucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Unlucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels 22% 5.2 Clayton Richard, SP, Chicago White Sox 38% 6.67
Josh Bard, C, San Diego 23% 2.6 Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado 35% 5.23
Chris Burke, 2B, Arizona 23% 3.1 Bob Howry, RP, Chicago Cubs 34% 5.32
Geoff Blum, 3B, Houston 23% 3.9 Clayton Kershaw, SP, L.A. Dodgers 34% 4.77
Ben Zobrist, SS, Tampa Bay 24% 5.0 Aaron Harang, SP, Cincinnati 34% 5.29
Brandon Inge, C, Detroit 25% 4.3 Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati 33% 5.28
Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland 25% 4.2 Jo-Jo Reyes, SP, Atlanta 33% 5.11
Willy Aybar, 3B, Tampa Bay 25% 4.4 Randy Wolf, SP, Houston 33% 4.81
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado 26% 3.3 A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto 33% 4.23
Nick Swisher, OF, Chicago White Sox 26% 5.1 Josh Beckett, SP, Boston 32% 3.64
Good stats, good skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Good stats, good skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Aubrey Huff, 1B, Baltimore 31% 7.5 Dan Haren, SP, Arizona 29% 2.62
Ty Wigginton, 3B, Houston 32% 7.1 Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota 27% 2.96
Marlon Byrd, OF, Texas 33% 6.6 Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh 28% 3.00
Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Washington 31% 6.5 Derek Lowe, SP, L.A. Dodgers 31% 3.25
Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay 29% 6.2 Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh 30% 3.67
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle 28% 3.2 Brian Bannister, SP, Kansas City 31% 5.33
Felipe Lopez, 2B, St. Louis 30% 3.3 Jon Garland, SP, L.A. Angels 31% 5.03
John Buck, C, Kansas City 28% 3.3 Dennis Sarfate, RP, Baltimore 28% 4.92
Juan Uribe, 2B, Chicago White Sox 29% 3.8 Josh Banks, SP, San Diego 30% 4.83
Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston 31% 4.1 Edwin Jackson, SP, Tampa Bay 30% 4.74
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.