Another day, another big-name prospect promotion for Fantasy Baseball players to know about. Following Joey Loperfido and Jordan Beck in recent days, the Brewers are calling up one of their top hitting prospects, Tyler Black, from Triple-A.
Black was Scott White's No. 42 prospect fro Fantasy Baseball coming into the season, and nothing he has done so far in his second stint at Triple-A has dimmed his star. Black has hit .303/.393/.525 with five homers in 25 games at Triple-A this season, though, somewhat disappointingly, just three stolen bases.
Last season, Black stole 55 bases in 123 games across the top two levels of the minors, though that pace has slowed considerably at Triple-A even before this season – he has 11 steals in 64 games at that level, after he swiped 47 in 84 games at Double-A. That's still a solid pace – 26 over a 150-game pace – but it puts a lot more pressure on Black's bat to play up. That might not seem like much of a question for a career .281/.412/.472 hitter in the minors, but when you dig under the surface, it might be a bigger one than you think.
Because, while Black has hit the ball well in his minor-league career, he's done so without a ton of raw power backing it up. We now have access to Statcast data for Triple-A, and across his 64 games at that level, he has just an 85.7 mph average exit velocity; his 95th percentile exit velocity is just 104.5 mph, which would have ranked just 331st out of 609 players who had at least 50 batted balls at Triple-A last season. No matter how you measure it, it's below-average raw power, and might be even less than that in game, despite 23 homers in 148 games dating back to the start of last season.
Now, he also comes with a really good approach at the plate, including more walks than strikeouts and a very good 13.4% strikeout rate so far at Triple-A, so I don't want to make it sound like Black is totally without appeal. It's just that the whole package looks a lot more promising if it comes with 40-steal upside rather than 25-steal upside.
And Black has definitely shown that kind of upside before. But, at least immediately, I'm expecting Loperfido and Beck to be more immediate contributors for Fantasy, especially if you don't specifically need speed. Black could end up being a must-start Fantasy option, but the path there just feels a bit narrower than it was for the last couple of big-name hitting prospects to get the call. I'd still add him in Roto leagues especially, but probably not in H2H points leagues right now.
Tuesday's top waiver targets
Wenceel Perez, 2B, Tigers (3%) – I'm going to be honest: I hadn't heard of this guy before I saw him in the Tigers lineup for the first time earlier this season. He appears to be something of a late bloomer as a hitter, finally reaching Triple-A in 2023 after toiling in the Tigers organization since 2017. But the past few seasons have gone pretty well for him, and he has established himself as a pretty regular part of the Tigers' lineup, having started seven of the team's last 10 games, including both halves of Tuesday's double-header. And, with three homers in his past three games, he deserves another look here. There's some speed and power in his profile, with nine homers and 26 steals in 116 games last season, though I think the power is probably more fringe than the speed; even his two homers Tuesday had an exit velocity below 102 mph, so not exactly smoked. I think he probably only matters in deeper Roto leagues right now, but it's a name to watch, in case there is more late development this season.
Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays (24%) – Alright well, hold on a second, maybe Manoah will matter this season after all? Even pitching at Triple-A on his rehab assignment, Manoah has given us little reason to think he's going to rediscover the form that made him a top-three finisher in the AL Cy Young voting as recently as 2022, but that changed Tuesday. Pitching for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate, Buffalo, Manoah was terrific Tuesday night, striking out 12 and walking just two over six innings of work. He got 13 whiffs with his slider, a huge number, and averaged 94.2 mph with his sinker, actually up about 1 mph from where he was in 2022. Manoah has been such a disaster since that 2022 season that, yeah, I get it, you're skeptical. You should be. But if there's even a chance he has rediscovered that form, it's worth taking a flier on him just in case. With Yariel Rodriguez added to the IL Tuesday, Manoah's next start could come in the majors, and I'd rather roster Manoah than someone like Hunter Brown (60%) or Dane Dunning (61%), just in case.
Tommy Pham, OF, White Sox (9%) – Through his first four games with the White Sox, Pham is hitting .350 while hitting in the top four of the lineup in every game. He went 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored Tuesday, and while he hasn't been someone any Fantasy player has gotten excited about in years, he did have 16 homers and 22 steals in 481 PA last season and can clearly still be a very useful option for categories leagues.
