There are plenty of ways to define a Fantasy Football bust. It could be guys who don't meet expert expectations, guys who fail to meet ADP expectations or guys who fail to deliver on what they did in 2023. Seeing as we're still several months from having reliable ADP or rankings, for this first round of busts I am focusing on 10 guys who won't live up to their 2023 performances.
While it's common to hear "don't tell me what he did last year" in talks about next year's production it's also true that the most predictive thing when projecting next year's Fantasy points is last year's points. We can find reasons why things will be different, but last year's production is the best baseline for starting that discussion. For these 10 guys, last year's production is a benchmark they won't be reaching in 2024. Next to each player's name you'll see their 2023 Fantasy points, or FPPG, and final PPR ranking. Don't bet on them matching that in 2024.
Quarterback
Josh Allen, 450.6 Fantasy points, QB1
There is no one who has scored more Fantasy points in the past three seasons than Josh Allen. But I don't want to back him as QB1 this season. Allen lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason and Curtis Samuel is the only addition so far. While I fully expect the Bills to draft at least one wide out, I think it's a stretch to hope for a player to fill Diggs' shoes in Year 1.
You can also expect significant regression from last year's 15 rushing touchdowns. That matters, because those scores masked the fact that Allen posed his lowest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns since 2020. Even his rushing yards per game were down about a third from the prior two years. Some of the blame for the passing drop off can be attributed to Joe Brady, who took the offense over in Week 12 and focused the offense more on the run game. Allen threw two fewer passes per game with Brady calling the plays.
None of this is to say that Allen is going to be bad, he's still a must-start quarterback. But you'll be disappointed if you draft him as the No. 1QB off the board this year.
Kirk Cousins, 23.2 FPPG, QB6
Most of the talk around Cousins' move to Atlanta has centered around how awesome things are for Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. I don't dispute that at all. However, the best place for Cousins was in Minnesota.
Cousins averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game in two seasons with Kevin O'Connell, that's going to drop at least 10% in Atlanta, maybe more. Also, as much as we are excited for London, Pitts, and Robinson it is a clear downgrade from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. I don't rank Cousins as a top 12 QB and you shouldn't draft him as one.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert, 267.7 Fantasy points, RB5
De'Von Achane, 17.3 FPPG, RB5
At some point this year I'll have to take a side on how I think this Dolphins backfield is going to play out. For now I can tell you, you shouldn't expect either back to do what he did last year. For Mostert, that's because he just turned 32 years old and as remarkable as it was what he did last year, Father Time is undefeated. Betting on Mostert in the double-digit rounds like we did last year is one thing, betting on him as a starting Fantasy running back is quite another. Plus, I'm sure the Dolphins are hoping Achane will be active for more than 11 games next year.
Half of Achane's touchdowns and 44% of his yards came in two games against the Broncos and the Giants last year. That's red flag number one. Number two is that the Dolphins gave Achane the ball 11 times in a must-win game against the Bills in Week 18 and just nine times in their playoff loss against the Chiefs. I do not believe they see him as a full-time running back and you can't count on him averaging seven yards per carry or scoring once every 10 touches.
Derrick Henry, 250.7 Fantasy points, RB8
While we did just see Mostert have a great season at 31 years old, I'm still betting against Henry at 30. At least part of the reason is while I love his fit in free agency for the Ravens, I don't actually think it's a great fit for him. I expect a career-low in rush attempts due to Lamar Jackson's role in the running game and Baltimore's history of dividing the load. We know there won't be a big role in the passing game based on both Henry and Jackson's histories. That leaves a monster touchdown season as the only real path to Henry's value holding up. It's possible, but seems less likely to me than a decline from a 30-year-old running back changing teams.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore, 286.5 Fantasy points, WR6
Keenan Allen, 21.6 FPPG, WR3
Again, another great situation for a team that I do not feel excited about for the players. The Chicago Bears added Allen, jettisoned Justin Fields, and set things up perfectly for Caleb Williams. The Bears offense could be legitimately good. I still don't want to count on a rookie quarterback supporting one top-12 wide receiver much less a pair of them. I am most concerned about Allen because of his age and the fact that he is the one changing teams. But that doesn't mean there isn't risk for Moore. Allen has consistently earned nine-plus targets per game throughout his career and Moore has never played with a target hog like that. There is upside if you can find either at a low-end WR2 cost, but nothing but risk as top-12 options.
Nico Collins, 260.4 Fantasy points, WR11
Obviously the Stefon Diggs acquisition plays a big role here. Also the prospect of playing a full season with Tank Dell healthy plays a big role too. Finally, there's the fact that last year's explosion came on just 109 targets. He overcame that by averaging 11.9 yards per target, which is bot amazing and unsustainable. Expect a 20% regression in Collins' efficiency and don't bet on a big boost in targets with Dell in Year 2 and Diggs joining the squad. Collins is a low-end WR2, not a low-end WR1.
Tight End
Evan Engram, 230.3 Fantasy points, TE2
Last year Engram, at Age 29, saw 28 more targets than he ever has in a season. He topped his prior career-best in catches by 41 and his career-best in yardage by 197. I have a rule that works out more often than not: If a guy has a career-season at or after his expected peak age, don't bet on them repeating that production the following year. The departure of Calvin Ridley makes me a little less comfortable implementing that rule in this instance. But Engram's production is such an outlier, particularly his 79.5% catch rate last year, that I can't draft him as a top-five tight end.
David Njoku, 201.2 Fantasy points, TE6
Kevin Stefanski's quarterbacks have consistently targeted their tight ends at more than a 25% clip. Well, most of them. Last year Deshaun Watson threw 21.6% of his passes to tight ends. The year before he was at 22.3%. While a three percent difference may now seem like a lot, it's basically a target per game in this offense and last year Njoku averaged about 1.7 PPR Fantasy points per target. So yeah, it's a big deal. And it might help explain why Njoku has only topped 50 yards twice in 10 games with Watson. I wouldn't draft him before the double-digit rounds.
