Note: Don't miss CBSSports' one-week Fantasy Football championship on FanDuel -- double your cash each week, compete against CBSSports experts and play in a FREE $100K final!Enter now
One of the most difficult things to do in Fantasy is to know when to accept the small sample size that is the current season and let go of our preconceived notions. We've talked about Andy Dalton plenty in this column, but he is a fine example.
Dalton has now looked like an elite quarterback for five games, including one over arguably the best defense in the NFL. Is it time to buy into Dalton? Of course. What about Peyton Manning, who has gone the exact opposite direction? Let's dig into that and more in this week's edition of Believe It or Not.
Peyton Manning is done as a reliable starter in Fantasy.
As a rookie 17 years ago, Peyton Manning had more interceptions (28) than touchdowns (26) over the course of the season. That never happened again. It's an incredible run from a future Hall of Famer but it may be in danger of coming to an end, much like Manning's run as a QB1.
Through five weeks, Manning has thrown 7 interceptions and does not look at all like himself. He's played some truly terrible pass defenses and it hasn't seemed to help. Manning simply doesn't have the ability to take advantage of bad defenses and he'll be eaten alive by better defenses later in the year.
Verdict: Believe it. It's not just the 7 interceptions that bother me, it's the countless others that have been dropped. Manning has been so bad that I could envision a situation where we're actually discussing whether Manning should still be the starter in Denver.
Imagine if the Chiefs had caught three or four of the interceptable passes Manning threw in primetime against them. Imagine if the Vikings had caught the two they dropped last week. It's not just that Manning's interception totals would be higher, but the Broncos might be 3-2 instead of 5-0.
I don't think these near misses are lost on the Broncos coaching staff. I'd expect a more conservative attack in Denver, and more mediocre production from Manning.
Todd Gurley is a Top 5 Fantasy back.
Gurley has certainly looked like it the past two weeks. In fact, over the past two weeks he's ranked exactly fifth amongst running backs, and that is without any touchdowns. My colleague Chris Towers has discussed over and over how volatile touchdown production can be. With that in mind, expect Gurley's touchdowns to go up and his talent to carry him through season where you're starting him no matter what.
Verdict: Believe it. The most impressive thing to me is the Rams' commitment to Gurley. They just handed the ball off 30 times in a game they lost by double digits.
Gurley is a special talent and Jeff Fisher recognizes that. The touchdowns will even out and the volume looks to be as guaranteed as any in the league. If you can find someone who thinks they're selling high on Gurley, make an offer.
Giovani Bernard is the only running back worth starting in Cincinnati.
We talked about Peyton Manning's rookie year earlier in the article. Do you remember the hype surrounding Bernard after his rookie campaign? Until Jeremy Hill stole the spotlight we were projecting huge things for Bernard in both the running and passing games.
Instead, Bernard missed three games last season and was a slightly less productive version of his 2013 self. Hill took over the feature role and earned first-round status heading into 2015. Well, it looks like we're right back where we started.
Verdict: Believe it. Bernard is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, Hill is averaging 3.0. Now, yards per carry isn't everything, but when you consider Bernard is also getting more touches than Hill it's an open-and-shut case.
In Cincinnati's last three games, Hill has 29 carries for 74 yards. If not for his three touchdowns against the Chiefs we'd have already given up on the sophomore back. Hill needs to reside on your bench until something changes while Bernard has become a matchup-proof must-start.
Detroit is a Fantasy black hole.
I'm not sure there's anything that has surprised me more than how bad the Lions are. It got so bad in Week 5 that Matthew Stafford was actually benched for his performance, which was not an outcome I thought was even possible.
The run game is non-existent, even with Joique Bell relegated to the sideline with another injury. Rookie phenom Ameer Abdullah can't hold on to the ball, making Theo Riddick look like the top dog for the Lions. Even Calvin Johnson has been affected and is on pace for the worst year of his career.
Verdict: Don't believe it. It's been a bad start for the Lions, but their last three games have come against arguably the three best defenses in the NFL. There's simply too much talent here for me to believe this offense is going to be this bad for this long, especially with Johnson.
I will be sending offers for Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate this week. Even if the Lions continue to be bad, they'll be playing from behind and the production will come for the receivers. I'll also be adding Theo Riddick in PPR leagues. I'd consider adding Stafford in two-quarterback leagues if you can get him on the cheap.
