The New England Patriots backfield has never been one we've fully understood. Year after year Bill Belichick keeps us guessing from week to week. It's easy to say you want to ignore the whole situation, but the offense also gives us Fantasy production in a variety of ways. So we have to try to project it, and Week 4 may be as challenging as any I can remember.
Rex Burkhead leads this backfield in total yards through three weeks with 222 yards. At least part of that is because James White missed Week 3 due to the birth of his child. With White on the field, Burkhead has one very good game and one complete dud.
Sony Michel leads the backfield in touchdowns with two but has been abysmal in terms of efficiency. He has 108 yards on 45 carries (2.4 YPC). What's worse is fullback James Develin has been placed on injured reserve. Michel has been primarily used in two-back sets and has been more efficient behind Develin's blocking.
White is the back who I feel the most secure about his role, it's just that his role won't likely be that valuable in anything but full PPR. He only had 15 touches in the first two games combined. He's the easiest to project, but the hardest to get excited about
Throwing a wrench into all of this is the Buffalo Bills defense ... and how Bill Belichick will attack it. The Bills have been much better against the pass than the rush so far this season, but Belichick may want to spread things out without Develin.
I'm projecting Michel to hold his lead in carries, but it's Burkhead who I project to lead the team backfield in Fantasy points in all formats. He's a low-end No. 2 option or high-end flex. White is similar in PPR, but a low-end flex in non-PPR. Michel is much like White, just with the formats flipped. If you're starting any Patriot running back this week, you're not doing in with confidence, but all three possess typical Patriot upside.
Week 4 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 4 at this time. Here's what it means:
The Giants will really miss Barkley, but this gives Gallman a shot at Fantasy relevance. It also likely means more targets for Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard.
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Numbers to know
- 61 - Rush attempts for Marlon Mack this season, the most in the NFL
- 1- Reception for Josh Jacobs. The past two weeks we've seen him taken out of the game by a negative script. Jon Gruden says he wants to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game, but he's only caught one of three targets so far.
- 8 - Receiving yards for Todd Gurley this season. His role in the passing game has almost completely disappeared.
- 45% - Malcom Brown's broken tackle rate per SIS. That's the best in the NFL and more than double Todd Gurley's
- 229 - Dalvin Cook's yards after contact. Josh Jacobs is in second place, 63 yards behind Cook.
- 13 - Carries inside the red zone this season for Jeff Wilson. Matt Breida has just one.
- 2.4 - Yards per carry for the Cincinnati Bengals. That's worse than even the Dolphins. Things have not been easy for Joe Mixon.
Matchups that matter
As if Ekeler hadn't been good enough, now he gets the free space Dolphins, who are the only team allowing more than 30 Fantasy points per game to running backs.
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The Bengals have been the second-worst team in the league against running backs. If Conner can't get it going this week, we've got problems.
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It was nice while it lasted. If you started Gore last week, I'm glad it worked out for you. But the Patriots defense has been dominant against opposing running backs, holding them to seven Fantasy points per game.
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Waiver Wire Targets
There's an argument to be made for Burkhead over Gallman. He's in a better offense and he's certainly more talented. We just have no idea what his role will be when Sony Michel and James White are both healthy. In Week 1, Burkhead saw 13 touches but then only saw seven in Week 2. The one thing we can say with certainty is that Burkhead has been the Patriots most complete back, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per target.
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We got our answer as to who is the third back in Kansas City, and it's not Darwin Thompson. Williams totaled 109 yards on 14 touches against the Ravens on Sunday, doing everything but getting in the end zone. He caught all five of his targets and averaged nearly 7 yards per carry against a defense that was allowing less than 2. LeSean McCoy still isn't 100% and we haven't gotten an update on the status of Damien Williams. Regardless, Darrel Williams needs to be universally rostered.
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I don't have any new justification, but Mattison is going to remain at the top of this list because of his situation. He's the clear handcuff to a back who has yet to play 16 games in a season. He's also on a team that strives to be one of the more run-heavy teams in the league and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
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Pollard's ownership is going the wrong direction. Nevermind that he just picked up 128 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins, he's one Ezekiel Elliott injury away from the best running back job in football. Both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
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Jones gave us another encouraging performance on Sunday, picking up 80 yards on 14 carries and catching a 41-yard pass. You can't start Jones with any confidence, but this is now two of three weeks that he looked like the better back in Tampa. There's still a very good chance Jones takes this job and runs with it.
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DFS Plays
With Barkley injured and Ezekiel Elliott sharing more than in the past, there's really no doubt who is the current No. 1 running back. McCaffrey is second in the NFL in touches, but he's still averaging more than 5 yards per carry and nearly 9 yards per catch. He's not losing goal-line touches to Cam Newton anymore and he doesn't have another back to share with. McCaffrey is easily the top cash-game back.
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It may be as simple as just playing McCaffrey and Ekeler together in all your lineups. Ekeler has been the No. 3 back in FanDuel scoring this season and now he gets the best matchup in Fantasy. Everyone is going to play him, so you'll have to get more creative in tournaments, but this is the clear play in cash.
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Henry has at least 17 touches and a touchdown in every game this season. There's no way he should be priced this low even as a road underdog. The Falcons defense is dealing with significant injuries for a second consecutive season and the Titans defense is just good enough to keep them in run-heavy mode.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 20.62 | 25.73 |
2 | 2 | Alvin Kamara | 20.13 | 25.29 |
3 | 3 | Austin Ekeler | 19.67 | 24.85 |
4 | 4 | Dalvin Cook | 16.01 | 18.95 |
5 | 5 | Chris Carson | 15.20 | 18.51 |
9 | 6 | Nick Chubb | 14.64 | 17.74 |
10 | 7 | James Conner | 13.96 | 17.70 |
7 | 8 | Ezekiel Elliott | 15.02 | 17.44 |
14 | 9 | Leonard Fournette | 13.12 | 17.24 |
15 | 10 | David Johnson | 12.75 | 16.29 |
6 | 11 | Derrick Henry | 15.05 | 16.14 |
8 | 12 | Marlon Mack | 14.75 | 15.73 |
11 | 13 | Kerryon Johnson | 13.93 | 15.63 |
25 | 14 | Chris Thompson | 9.75 | 15.38 |
13 | 15 | Todd Gurley | 13.50 | 14.99 |
12 | 16 | Mark Ingram | 13.64 | 14.84 |
16 | 17 | Wayne Gallman | 12.14 | 14.63 |
18 | 18 | Phillip Lindsay | 11.26 | 14.30 |
20 | 19 | Lesean McCoy | 11.20 | 13.60 |
19 | 20 | Aaron Jones | 11.23 | 13.06 |
27 | 21 | Rex Burkhead | 9.60 | 12.91 |
22 | 22 | Devonta Freeman | 10.20 | 12.76 |
17 | 23 | Josh Jacobs | 11.80 | 12.70 |
23 | 24 | David Montgomery | 10.01 | 11.80 |
26 | 25 | Royce Freeman | 10 | 11.62 |
28 | 26 | Joe Mixon | 9.06 | 11.26 |
39 | 27 | Tarik Cohen | 6.72 | 11.07 |
36 | 28 | James White | 6.95 | 11.02 |
21 | 29 | Carlos Hyde | 10.28 | 10.74 |
32 | 30 | Devin Singletary | 7.64 | 10.32 |
34 | 31 | Kenyan Drake | 7.20 | 10.17 |
24 | 32 | Sony Michel | 9.80 | 10.02 |
29 | 33 | Adrian Peterson | 8.60 | 9.95 |
31 | 34 | Peyton Barber | 7.76 | 9.47 |
30 | 35 | Frank Gore | 8 | 9.34 |
43 | 36 | Nyheim Hines | 5.66 | 9.21 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 4 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
