In his latest ESPN Insider blog post, Buster Olney writes about how changes to the collective bargaining agreement have affected the trade market, and addresses the futures of Cole Hamels and Justin Upton.
- Teams are talking trade, there's a lot of chatter, but changes to draft pick compensation rules will likely result in fewer trades being made this July.
- In the past, if the San Diego Padres kept Carlos Quentin, and let him walk at the end of the season as a free agent, they'd receive a supplemental first-round draft pick. They'd make a deal based on the fact they knew they'd get something in return for Quentin, even if they didn't trade him and allowed him to leave. That's no longer the case this year, and moving forward, thanks to changes to the CBA. If the Padres keep Quentin at the deadline, and he leaves as a free agent over the winter, San Diego gets nothing. This changes the value of potential trade candidates. A team that trades for Quentin, or Cole Hamels, as a rental, knows that they won't be getting anything if and when the player chooses to head to free agency.
- Olney writes that teams like the Reds and Indians, rumored to be interested in Quentin, have to consider what they're willing to pay, in terms of prospects, for what could be a straight two-month rental.
- The Phillies aren't done with Hamels just yet. They're going to make "one last, big-time offer" in the hopes of re-signing the left-handed starter. We're talking Johan Santana (six years, $137.5 million), Barry Zito (seven years, $126 million), and Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million) type money.
- If Hamels refuses to sign, look for him to be dealt for a "rotation anchor," or a prospect the likes of Rangers third baseman Mike Olt.
- On Justin Upton, Olney writes that the right fielder and the Diamondbacks "have become oil and water." Pittsburgh's in the mix, and so could Texas be, but Arizona doesn't have to move their prized outfielder, and they want major-league players in return if they do.
