For the second straight season, the Montreal Canadiens have won nine of their first 10 games. They remain unbeaten in regulation and have allowed fewer goals than any team in the entire NHL. As great as the start has been, the Canadiens know as well as anybody that those numbers can go south in a hurry.
That was the case last year when starting goalie Carey Price went down with what would end up being a season-ending injury in late November. The Habs went 22-34-4 the rest of the way that season, missing the playoffs and looking like a team in utter disarray.
Now Montreal is coming out of an offseason that was tumultuous to say the least. Trading P.K. Subban for Shea Weber was unpopular, but the team made several other moves like acquiring Andrew Shaw in a trade, dealing Lars Eller away and signing Alexander Radulov out of the KHL and veteran backup goalie Al Montoya, among others.
They've come out on the other side smelling like a rose, so far at least. However, having only played 10 games and understanding just how unpredictable a season can be, no one is planning the Stanley Cup parade yet. Even with that in mind, the early goings of the season have gone almost perfectly for the Canadiens.
Weber is off to an incredibly hot start with four goals and 10 points, Radulov has eight points and last year's breakout start, Alex Galchenyuk is picking up right where he left off.
Meanwhile, the team's goalies are stopping pretty much everything. After having to miss the club's first three games of the season with an illness, Price has won all six of his starts while posting a .964 save percentage and 1.17 goals-against average. Meanwhile, Montoya is 3-0-1 with a .955 save percentage and 1.47 GAA. They've allowed a total of 13 goals over their 10 combined starts. It's just silly.
While Price and Montoya are fine goalies, the likelihood of them carrying a .960 save percentage the rest of the season is next to nothing. We can probably safely project Price stays right around his Vezina campaigns, assuming the wear and tear of the season doesn't take too much of a toll. So even when the save percentage regresses, a healthy Price allows the Habs to contend for another Atlantic Division title.
Since the 2013-14 season, Price has appeared in 143 games. He owns a .932 save percentage, eight points better than the next closest goalies with 100 or more starts over that span. Probably not since Dominik Hasek was at his peak have we seen a goalie as consistently dominant and as meaningful to his team's success.
This is why the Habs can probably live with the other numbers that will drop. The team's overall shooting percentage, which checks in at 11.6 percent, fourth highest in the league, probably regresses a bit. The team's PDO, which combines 5-on-5 shooting percentage and save percentage, is second highest in the league at 106.47 per Corsica.hockey.
The numbers that should concern the Habs early on is that the team has no choice but to hope their goalies come up big for them because of the way they play. While we shouldn't overreact to a 10-game sample, the Habs are getting out possessed and out-chanced regularly. Their Corsi for percentage sits at 47.4 percent, which puts them in the bottom third of the league. Also, to put it in context with a more traditional measure, they're also allowing 32-plus shots on goal per game which is the sixth most in the league.
Price and Montoya are going to have their work cut out for them, but we've seen Price drag this team to a division title before. So Montreal's entire season basically hinges on Price's health.
It is incredibly rare in today's NHL that one player can make the difference between a division title and missing the playoffs, but that's what Carey Price is. I'm buying the Habs' early results with full knowledge that the overall save percentages and shooting percentages are going to drop to less cartoonish numbers. As long as they have Price, they have a chance.
Here's a look at four other teams and whether we should buy their hot starts.
New York Rangers: An incredible 8-3-0 start is being driven by the Rangers' young forwards. J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Chris Kreider, Brandon Pirri and Mika Zibanejad are injecting offense, while veterans like Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh and offseason acquisition Michael Grabner are pitching in, in a big way. Meanwhile, Henrik Lundqvist has been below his career norms on the save percentage front. The Rangers' offense is not going to continue scoring at a league-best rate of 4.09 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 13. That said, Henrik Lundqvist's eventual return to form could offset that some. I don't think they'll be a division leader, but the Rangers look like a playoff team and one that could compete even with the expected scoring regression. Not ready to buy them as a Cup contender, though.
Edmonton Oilers: After an incredibly hot start, the Oilers are cooling just a bit. They're 7-3-1 over 11 games, making them the top team in the Pacific Division. There are a few concerns among their numbers, particularly in possession and on the power play. Their PK has been excellent so far, operating at a 90 percent kill rate, so we'd expect to see a dip there. There are two questions here. How much faith do you have in Connor McDavid to continue carrying the team? Is Cam Talbot as good as he's been over the first few weeks? "A lot," is my answer to the former, not sure on the latter. Additionally, Talbot has played all but 10 minutes of the season. His durability and continued success is going to have a huge impact on this club. That said, the Pacific does not look strong this year. While we should expect to see some improvements from the California teams in particular, there's enough of an opening for me to lean into cautiously buying Edmonton as a playoff team.
Minnesota Wild: Having Bruce Boudreau on the bench makes this team so tempting to buy into. They haven't played amazing hockey over the start, but they're two points behind Chicago for first place in the Central with a game in hand. A 6-3-1 start isn't exactly something to get excited about, but the Wild have avoided digging any holes and they have Devan Dubnyk to thank for it. The veteran goalie appears to be on his way to a bounceback season with a 5-2-1 record, .948 save percentage and 1.51 GAA. Dubnyk has just been too inconsistent over his career to buy that will continue. Also the team owns the third highest shooting percentage in the NHL. There are too many numbers that look poised for a regression to alter the Wild's outlook. I'm selling on the early results, but this club should absolutely be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the year.
Ottawa Senators: This start from the Sens feels like it is coming out of left field. At 7-3-0 under first-year head coach Guy Boucher, Ottawa is second in the Atlantic. Now we'll have to see how they'll fare without starter Craig Anderson, who has taken a leave from the team to be with his wife as she fights cancer. Losing Anderson, who had a .929 save percentage through seven starts, is tough. That's especially true with how badly they've been out-possessed throughout the year. That said, the Sens have some bona fide weapons, led by Erik Karlsson and Kyle Turris early on. They've won so many close games, including two in overtime and one in a shootout (handing Montreal its only loss). The team's schedule hasn't been overwhelmingly tough, either, and there are just a few red flags here to sell on the Sens. Perhaps a few moves here or there could help, but it's still hard to see this team in the playoffs this year.
