Preseason football is here and that means it's crunch time for Fantasy Football draft prep. The tight end position feels more about the haves and haves nots than ever before heading into prime drafting season. It seems like there is a clear Tier 1, and they're likely worth investing in, but positional scarcity is also pushing up the Tier 2 TEs and they may not be worth the investment. As you dig deeper down the rankings, that's where you might find value. We'll be tackling different position groups in the coming weeks, and this week we are focusing on the tight end position.
Today, we're tapping the Fantasy Football Today team to gauge their favorite tight end sleepers for the 2021 season. Without further ado, let's dive into it.
Tight end sleepers
Jamey Eisenberg's picks
I've gone back and forth on Trautman as a sleeper or breakout, and I'm keeping him in the sleeper category based on his CBS Sports Average Draft Position, as well as his poor showing in New Orleans' first preseason game against the Ravens. Trautman, who has an ADP of 131.13, is the No. 17 tight end off the board, and he might not rise much soon after he went without a target against the Ravens. But I still like his chances to contribute this season for the Saints. He's replacing Jared Cook as the starting tight end, and that should give Trautman the chance to be a low-end Fantasy starter this year. In two seasons with the Saints, Cook had 16 touchdowns in 29 games. And over the past two seasons, the Saints tight ends have 21 touchdowns as a group. Trautman could emerge as a weekly Fantasy starter during the season if Sean Payton features him in the offense as a viable weapon in the passing game.
Higbee was an obvious bust call last season after some people were overhyping him when he scored at least 18 PPR points in each of his final five games in 2019. That wasn't sustainable, and he scored double digits in PPR just three times in 2020. But now Gerald Everett is gone, and Higbee should benefit with Matthew Stafford under center. There are still plenty of mouths to feed in the Rams offense, but Higbee will hopefully get close to five targets per game on a consistent basis. Last year, he had five games with at least five targets, and he had at least nine PPR points in four of them. During his monster stretch in 2019, he had at least eight targets in each of those final five outings. I'm not sure if Higbee can emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues, but I'm willing to gamble on him with his ADP at No. 105.48 overall.
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Dave Richard's picks
A mild ankle sprain suffered in training camp practice shouldn't keep you from thinking long-term about Smith. The Patriots remodeled their offense to revolve around two tight ends, with Smith much more of a "move" tight end compared to Hunter Henry. Both will have their weeks, but Smith's athleticism and red-zone prowess make him the tougher mismatch for opposing defenses and therefore the better option for the Patriots passing game. With the Titans, Smith lined up all over the field and managed to finish tied for fourth in red-zone targets among tight ends (17) and second in red-zone touchdowns (8). He even finished tied for first among tight ends in touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line with five. It's a cinch that the Patriots will deploy him in their search for six points, but they'll also navigate with him all over the field because he's faster than most linebackers and bigger than every safety in the league. Even if you have to begin the year with him on your bench, he's worth the double-digit rounder.
Logan Thomas, Football Team
The only way I can get Thomas in here as a sleeper is because our audience is still sleeping on him. His ADP is after 100th overall. Maybe I'm slightly to blame since he was originally a bust, but there seems to be a shortage of tight ends Fantasy managers can consider as starters late on Draft Day, and here's a guy who put away 72 catches on 110 targets in 2020. Thomas is massive (6-foot-6, 250 pounds), moves pretty well for a big man and is in a scheme where he has a shot to finish second in targets. Ryan Fitzpatrick's track record throwing to tight ends isn't pretty, but Thomas profiles more as a receiver than a tight end (he blocked on 4.8% of his pass snaps in 2020) and might wind up being a regular option for the quarterback after all. His matchups to begin the year aren't great (Chargers, Giants, Bills), but I'm willing to take Thomas as soon as Round 8 in PPR leagues, a round later in half- and non-PPR.
Heath Cummings' picks
Logan Thomas, Football Team
This feels like cheating. Thomas scored the third-most PPR Fantasy points last year, yet somehow his current ADP is at the end of the 10th round. I think we can all agree Thomas won't match last year's high-volume, low-aDOT production. But with Ryan Fitzpatrick in town, his aDOT should increase, meaning he'll be OK with lower volume. And it's not like he has to come anywhere close to last year's production to justify this ADP anyway.
Howard doesn't even show up on some ADP lists, he's such an afterthought. And he is coming back from a major injury, so there's certainly a risk he's not productive early in the season. But this a 26-year-old tight end who has averaged 15.3 yards per catch, 10.1 yards per target, and scored on 8.8% of his targets. Those are Gronkesque efficiency numbers. Speaking of Gronk, Howard was outproducing the veteran before his injury last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case again once Howard is 100% healthy.
Chris Towers' picks
Evan Engram, Giants
There are a lot of reasons that opinions on Engram have soured. His struggles catching the ball in 2020 -- a career-high 10.1% drop rate especially -- stick out in most people's minds, and the signing of Kyle Rudolph this offseason seemed to signal a similar lack of faith in the soon-to-be 27-year-old. Add in the acquisition of Kenny Golladay to be the Giants No. 1 receiver and it seems like Engram's chances of breaking out are slimmer than ever. But he doesn't have to break out to be a good pick at his current cost, which is TE20 at 148.4 overall in CBS ADP. Engram wasn't good last season, and he left a ton of points on the board with his drops, but he also hadn't really struggled with drops like that before, so it's not exactly guaranteed to be a problem again. And with Rudolph still held out of practice after undergoing offseason foot surgery -- he "doesn't appear particularly close to returning" either, per The Athletic -- Engram could still have a significant role in this offense. If you want to wait on the position and take a late-round flier, why not do it with Engram?
The longer Ertz stays in Eagles camp, the more it makes sense to target him as a late-round tight end sleeper. He looked finished last season, but that also came early on in an offense that looked completely broken with Carson Wentz at QB, and then Ertz came back from a serious injury that he maybe shouldn't have. By all accounts, he's looked good in camp, and it's not even clear if Dallas Goedert is necessarily ahead of him in terms of the receiving hierarchy. There's still time for Ertz to be traded, but I wouldn't expect that to hurt his Fantasy value anyway. His presence is sending Dallas Goedert's price tumbling, and while I would still rather have Goedert, Ertz might end up being the better pick.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
