This is it. This is the final week of the 2023 NFL season when we'll have multiple games. After this weekend, we're down to Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11. But for now, we have an exciting Championship Round of Baltimore vs. Kansas City in the AFC and San Francisco vs. Detroit in the NFC.
I can't wait. What about you?
Here, we'll continue what we've done throughout the playoffs with DFS good and bad buys on DraftKings and FanDuel. While you're enjoying the games, let's make some money, and we can continue to have fun setting a lineup or two. I'll also include some player props that I like for each game.
And, if you want to see two lineups that I'll be using for this weekend, you can go to SportsLine to check those out. Good luck with your DFS lineups, and let's have a profitable Championship Round.
Good Buys
Brock Purdy ($7,700 on FanDuel, $6,400 on DraftKings)
Purdy will hopefully have a healthy Deebo Samuel (shoulder) for this matchup, but I still like Purdy even if Samuel is out or limited. Purdy didn't have a great game against Green Bay in the Divisional Round with 252 passing yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, along with 14 rushing yards, but this matchup is too good to overlook. The Lions finished the regular season No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and then Matthew Stafford (367 passing yards and two touchdowns) and Baker Mayfield (349 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions) beat up this secondary in the playoffs. Purdy will be popular, but he should be worth it in this matchup at home.
Justice Hill ($5,500 on FanDuel, $4,800 on DraftKings)
In last week's 34-10 victory against Houston, Hill led Baltimore's backfield with his highest carry total (13) and rushing yards (66) of the season, and he added two catches for 11 yards on two targets. Will he do that again in this matchup with the Chiefs? It's hard to say, and this could be a week where Gus Edwards or Dalvin Cook take on more work. But I'll go with the hot hand, and hopefully the Ravens do the same with Hill. James Cook just had 82 total yards against the Chiefs, including four catches, and I hope Hill can be a factor in the passing game. He has 13 catches in his past four games, and Kansas City has allowed a running back to catch at least three passes in four outings in a row.
Jauan Jennings ($5,300 on FanDuel, $4,600 on DraftKings)
Jennings is in play with Deebo Samuel (shoulder) hurt, and we saw Jennings have an elevated role in the Divisional Round against Green Bay after Samuel went out. Jennings had five catches for 61 yards on six targets, and we could see more of that against Detroit if Samuel is out or limited. I love Brandon Aiyuk in this matchup, but he's obviously more expensive ($7,800 on FanDuel, $6,900 on DraftKings). Jennings will be a popular option if Samuel is out, but he could become a contrarian play if Samuel is active. At his price, I'll use him either way against the Lions, who finished the regular season No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers and have struggled against opposing receivers in the playoffs as well (Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell and Mike Evans).
George Kittle ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,300 on DraftKings)
Kittle had four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against Green Bay in the Divisional Round, and he continues to play well at home. That's now six games in a row with either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in San Francisco, and I expect him to stay hot this week. Cade Otton just beat up the Lions for five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown on eight targets last week, and Kittle would benefit if Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is out or limited. On DraftKings, Kittle is actually cheaper than Travis Kelce ($6,600) and Sam LaPorta ($5,400), and Kittle is my favorite overall play at any position for this slate.
Bad Buys
Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 on FanDuel, $6,900 on DraftKings)
The Chiefs could be without All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney (pectoral) for this matchup at Baltimore, which is far from ideal. You want all hands on deck against the Ravens, who finished the regular season No. 3 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and just limited C.J. Stroud last week to 175 passing yards and no touchdowns. Mahomes had a decent game at Buffalo last week with 215 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with 19 rushing yards, but that was his first game with multiple touchdowns since Week 15. And with rain expected in Baltimore, this could be another game where Mahomes has minimal production.
David Montgomery ($6,000 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings)
It's tough to run on the 49ers when defensive lineman Arik Armstead is healthy, and San Francisco allowed just five rushing touchdowns in the 13 games Armstead played this season, including the playoffs. You saw the downside to Montgomery last week when he didn't score since he had 10 carries for 33 yards against Tampa Bay, along with three catches for 14 yards on four targets. The three catches tied a season-high, so it's hard to count on him in the passing game, and he'll need to find the end zone to justify his cost. I'd rather spend up on Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000 on FanDuel, $6,400 on DraftKings) if you want one of the Lions running backs this week.
Zay Flowers ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,800 on DraftKings)
Flowers was quiet in his playoff debut against the Texans last week with four catches for 41 yards on five targets. He could have another quiet game against the Chiefs, who have a tough secondary, led by L'Jarius Sneed. Kansas City finished the regular season No. 3 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and the Chiefs just shut down Stefon Diggs last week, holding him to three catches for 21 yards on eight targets. Mark Andrews (ankle) coming back could take away targets from Flowers, and the rain in Baltimore could create a problem as well.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 on FanDuel, $5,000 on DraftKings)
It's exciting that Andrews is expected to return in the Championship Round against the Chiefs after he's been out with an injured ankle since Week 11. In his absence, Isaiah Likely has taken off, and we'll see how the Ravens use both tight ends in this matchup. I'm hopeful we see more two, tight-end sets, and keep in mind that Andrews could be a decoy. He might need a game to shake off the rust from his extended absence, and I'd be hesitant to play him in most lineups. Instead, I'd rather use Likely ($5,400 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings) with the hope he remains a go-to option for Lamar Jackson, even with Andrews back on the field.
Props
Kansas City at Baltimore
Chiefs prop: Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 pass attempts (-120)
Kansas City is a road underdog, and Mahomes has at least 38 pass attempts in five of six Chiefs losses this year. He also has at least 37 pass attempts in four of his past six games overall.
Chiefs prop: Travis Kelce under 62.4 receiving yards (-110)
Kelce has at least 71 receiving yards in each of his past two playoff games against Miami and Buffalo, but this is a tough matchup against the Ravens, who will use multiple defenders on Kelce, including standout safeties Kyle Hamilton and Geno Stone. Prior to the playoffs, Kelce had three games in a row with 44 receiving yards or fewer.
Ravens prop: Lamar Jackson over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
Jackson just had 100 rushing yards against Houston, and he's topped 67 rushing yards three times in his past five outings. With sloppy weather expected in Baltimore, expect Jackson to use his legs a lot in this matchup.
Ravens prop: Justice Hill over 32.5 rushing yards (-110)
In Hill's last two games with Lamar Jackson, he had at least 48 rushing yards in each outing. And in Baltimore's first playoff game last week, Hill was the Ravens' leading rusher with 13 carries.
Detroit at San Francisco
Lions prop: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (+104)
Gibbs has played two playoff games in his rookie campaign, and he had four catches in each outing against Tampa Bay and the Rams. The 49ers finished the regular season No. 5 in most receptions allowed to running backs with 90, and Jared Goff should continue to lean on Gibbs out of the backfield in this matchup.
Lions prop: Josh Reynolds under 2.5 receptions (+118)
Reynolds had five catches in Week 18 against Minnesota and five catches in the Wild Card round against the Rams. But last week he had two catches against Tampa Bay. And prior to Week 18, Reynolds had two catches or fewer in nine of his previous 10 games.
49ers prop: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
Kittle has been a star in San Francisco, and he has at least 67 receiving yards in six-consecutive home games going back to Week 5 against Dallas. He had 81 yards last week against Green Bay, and I expect him to hit the over in this matchup.
49ers prop: Christian McCaffrey under 86.5 rushing yards (-110)
Betting against McCaffrey is risky, and I expect him to do well with his total yards in this matchup. But he should struggle to run the ball against the Lions, who didn't allow a running back to rush for more than 69 yards all season and 20 games in a row going back to last year.
