The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the offseason, and now comes the far more essential matter of the 2024 season itself. Dave Roberts' squadron has been a juggernaut in recent seasons, and to complement that already impressive core Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office committed more than $1 billion in salary this winter, much of it going to Shohei Ohtani, the biggest baseball star in the world.
To say the least, the Dodgers figure to be a force in 2024, but they'll have sky-scraping expectations and pressure to match. Let's take a deeper dive in the season ahead for L.A.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 100-62 (first place in NL West)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 103.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +320
Projected lineup
- Mookie Betts, SS
- Shohei Ohtani, DH
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Will Smith, C
- Max Muncy, 3B
- James Outman, CF
- Teoscar Hernández, LF
- Jason Heyward, RF
- Gavin Lux, 2B
Last season, the Dodgers ranked second in MLB in runs scored and joined the Braves as the only teams to score more than 900 runs in 2023. They also ranked second in OPS. While J.D. Martinez had a strong season as the Dodgers' primary DH, Ohtani is obviously an upgrade. Also notable on the lineup front is that Betts will be manning shortstop -- a rare and challenging transition given his age and the fact that he's been a right fielder for so much of his career. As well, Muncy's glove at third is very much in decline, and Lux's throwing troubles this spring and in the past could also bedevil him at second base. Summed up, infield defense could be a serious concern for the Dodgers this season.
Projected rotation
- Tyler Glasnow, RHP
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
- Bobby Miller, RHP
- James Paxton, LHP
- Gavin Stone, RHP
The L.A. rotation last season placed a disappointing 20th in MLB with a starters' ERA of 4.57. They were 13th in starters' K/BB ratio. Gone from last year's mix are Julio Urias and Noah Syndergaard (Syndergaard was dealt to Cleveland at the deadline). As well, Tony Gonsolin is expected to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of last year. As for the new additions and holdovers, they'll be addressed in further depth below.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Evan Phillips
- Setup: RHP Brusdar Graterol, RHP Joe Kelly, LHP Alex Vesia,
- Middle: RHP Ryan Brasier, RHP Blake Treinen, LHP Ryan Yarbrough
- Long: RHP Michael Grove
The Dodger pen men last season ranked third in the bigs with an ERA of 3.42 and second with a K/BB ratio of 3.07. Shelby Miller's modest innings tally will be missed, but otherwise last year's relief corps is largely intact.
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 50 homers?
The peerless Ohtani fetched $700 million on the open market because of his excellence at the plate and on the mound. Because of elbow surgery, however, he'll be limited to just DH duty in 2024. As for what can be expected of Ohtani in 2024, he's already proved that recovering from a major elbow procedure doesn't compromise him with the bat. As well, he's at the top of his offensive game right now. Over the last three seasons, Ohtani has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games played. Last year, in his final Angels campaign, he hit an AL-leading 44 spanks in just 135 games.
En route to those 44 homers in 2023, Ohtani ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity off the bat, the 100th percentile in barrel rate (i.e., those batted balls that leave the bat at the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle), and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. All of that bodes exceptionally well for the future. On another level, Ohtani this season will be able to devote his full mental and physical capacities to crushing the baseball. The physical strain of pitching won't be distracting him from his job as a hitter, and neither will it be adding to his fatigue down the stretch.
In light of all that, it's perhaps worth mentioning that the Dodgers' single-season home run record belongs to Shawn Green, who hit 49 in 2001. So will Ohtani in his first Dodger season become the first Dodger to hit 50 or more homers? Don't be shocked if it comes to pass.
Will the rotation be durable enough?
The Dodgers' rotation has depth and certainly can't be spun as a weak spot. However, there is collapse risk, largely because of health concerns for so many of their starters. Co-ace Tyler Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season. Marquee non-Ohtani addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto must adjust to the five-man rotation, the MLB ball itself, significantly increased travel demands, and the pitch clock. Will that exact a price in terms of stamina? Walker Buehler is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, as is Dustin May. Clayton Kershaw may not be back until July or later as he recovers from a shoulder procedure. Emmet Sheehan is dealing with spring shoulder woes, and James Paxton has been injury-prone for years. You get the idea.
The hope for L.A. is that they can build a large lead in the NL West and ease back on their core rotation guys down the stretch, all in the service of being full-go for the playoffs. If, however, the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants keep the heat on the Dodgers, then they may not be afforded that luxury. You saw all those names above. The Dodgers can come close to assembling two viable rotations when everyone is available, but so many of those arms are of the risky variety. Particularly vital is having Yamamoto fresh and Glasnow and Buehler healthy when October rolls around. That may require a number of those other arms being available and effective to ease the load before we get to October. Therein lies the rub for the 2024 Dodgers.
What would make for a successful season?
This is not a difficult question insofar as the 2024 Dodgers are concerned. The upcoming season will be a failure if they don't win the World Series. You can see above how star-stuffed the roster is -- Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler, and so forth. The new faces have been added to a core that's led the Dodgers to win at a .658 clip over the last half-decade.
More broadly, the Dodgers have made the playoffs for 11 straight years, but only once in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 campaign have they claimed the World Series trophy. It's not entirely fair, particularly given how dominant the Dodgers were that year, but by many that 2020 belt and title isn't viewed as being on-par with championships won in standard full seasons. Given the high payroll, all the current stars and future Hall of Famers on the team, the investments of this past winter, and the substantial recent history of postseason wash-outs, the Dodgers are "championship or bust" for 2024. That's the case even though the NL houses the Braves, a fellow juggernaut with an identical standard for success in 2024.
There's one path to success for manager Dave Roberts the Dodgers in 2024, and that's to be the last team standing.
