Monday night at Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles will host the AL East rival New York Yankees for the first game of a four-game series. I think it's fair to call this the most important series of the young season. The O's are establishing themselves as the AL's dominant team while the Yankees look a lot more like the Yankees these days.
Late April is a little too early to focus on the standings, but, for posterity's sake, here's the AL East heading into Monday's action:
"We know they're a really good club, but it's just part of the long season," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about the Orioles on Sunday (via the New York Post). "You know that's a team -- especially going to their place -- if you're going to beat them, you gotta play really well. I don't get too much into barometers and messages and all that, especially this time of year. It's about trying to stack together consistent performances."
Far too often over the last 7-8 years, Camden Yards turned into Yankee Stadium South whenever the Yankees visited. Yankees fans would pack the building. Don't expect that to be the case this week. Orioles finally have a great team to root for again and they show up to support their team. Camden Yards should be electric for these four games. A postseason atmosphere, truly.
Here are the details for this week's Yankees vs. Orioles series in Baltimore. Select games can be streamed on fuboTV (try for free).
| Date | Start time | Starting pitchers | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon., April 29 | 6:35 p.m. ET | RHP Clarke Schmidt (2-0, 3.55 ERA) vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45 ERA) | MASN, YES |
Tues., April 30 | 6:35 p.m. ET | LHP Nestor Cortes (1-2, 3.50 ERA) vs. RHP Dean Kremer (1-2, 4.61 ERA) | MASN, YES |
Weds., May 1 | 6:35 p.m. ET | RHP Luis Gil (1-1, 4.01 ERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (3-0, 2.55 ERA) | MASN, Amazon Prime Video, MLBN |
Thurs., May 2 | 1:05 p.m. ET | LHP Carlos Rodón (2-1, 2.48 ERA) vs. TBA | MASN, YES, MLBN |
Gil stepped into the rotation when reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole went down with an elbow injury in spring training. So, in theory, we have been robbed of a Cole vs. Burnes matchup this week. (It probably wouldn't have happened though. The Yankees used an off-day to push Gil back a few days earlier this month, something they never would have done with Cole.)
It's only April, but the new, more balanced schedule means you get fewer cracks at division rivals. These head-to-head games are the best way to create breathing room or make up ground, and now there are fewer of them. That means the head-to-head games you do play take on added importance. Win this series this week, and your life will be a little easier down the road.
Here now is what you need to know heading into this week's Yankees vs. Orioles series.
1. The O's are expected to get Bradish back
Baltimore's scheduled starter for Thursday's series finale is officially listed as TBA, and it is expected to be righty Kyle Bradish. Bradish has been sidelined with an elbow sprain suffered in the offseason, but he's completed his minor league rehab assignment, and will make his next start with the O's. He lines up to start Thursday with an extra day of rest.
Bradish, 27, threw 168 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA last season, earning him a fourth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting. In his three rehab starts, he surrendered five runs in 11 1/3 innings. Elbow sprains often lead to Tommy John surgery, though Bradish received a platelet-rich plasma injection and was able to rehab rather than go under the knife. Now he's ready to rejoin the O's.
2. The Yankees are winning with pitching
Before back-to-back 15-run outbursts against the Brewers this past weekend, New York ranked middle of the pack in runs scored per game, and several key hitters (Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, etc.) were underperforming. The pitching staff, even without Cole, has carried the Yankees to their 19-10 record. Consider:
- SP ERA: 3.34 ERA (4th in MLB)
- RP ERA: 2.70 ERA (4th in MLB)
- Opp. OPS: .660 (8th in MLB)
The O's rank closer to middle of the pack across the board. As good as New York's pitching has been overall, it should be noted the bullpen has a 19.5% strikeout rate, fourth lowest in baseball and comfortably below the 22.8% league average. The Yankees will allow you to put the ball in play in the late innings. That's a potential weak spot.
3. Who's hot, who's not
Baseball is a sport of hot and cold streaks. Day-to-day and week-to-week consistency is a myth. As such, several players head into this week's series swinging the bat better than others. Here are the hottest Yankees hitters over the last 14 days:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
59 | .286/.390/.592 | 4 | 9 | |
Anthony Rizzo | 53 | .280/.321/.560 | 4 | 8 |
54 | .326/.389/.522 | 2 | 8 |
Soto has been everything the Yankees expected -- and needed -- him to be. Verdugo, their other offseason outfield addition, has been great as well, so much so that he moved into the cleanup spot this past weekend. Judge is beginning to heat up too. He went 5 for 8 with two homers in his last two games, and he has three homers in his last five games overall.
On the other end of the spectrum, Torres has hit .239/.300/.283 over the last two weeks, and that has raised his season batting line to .218/.298/.255. He's been just dreadful to start 2024. Torres went 5 for 11 on Saturday and Sunday, which is perhaps a sign he's coming around. Fill-in third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera (.250/.275/.292 last 14 days) has leveled out after a fast start.
Here now are three Orioles who've torn the cover off the ball the last 14 days:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
57 | .353/.404/.784 | 6 | 12 | |
56 | .368/.393/.547 | 3 | 10 | |
45 | .349/.378/.581 | 2 | 9 |
That is what it's supposed to look like, right? Three homegrown players, all drafted relatively high, leading the charge. Henderson has been just incredible. Also, Anthony Santander has picked it up of late following his slow start to the season. He's hit .275/.396/.550 over the last two weeks. The O's are the second-highest scoring team in baseball this year, behind only the Braves.
As for the laggers, Cedric Mullins has hit .182/.213/.386 over the last two weeks and .222/.273/.444 overall. The six home runs are nice. The rest of it is not. Colton Cowser, another high draft pick, started out very well, but has dipped down to .189/.286/.378 over the last two weeks. He has struck out in 18 of his last 42 plate appearances, or 42.9%.
Prediction
With a four-game series between two very good teams, it would be easy to say it'll be a split, though that's the coward's way out. I'll say the Orioles win three of four, with New York's lone win coming in the Gil vs. Burnes matchup. That's one of those pitching matchups that is so lopsided on paper that it's a reverse lock. Otherwise I think we're in for four thrilling games in which the O's come out on top more often because they have the better lineup one through nine, and they get the final at-bat at home.
