A bizarre 2022 Players Championship is going to have a chaotic ending. Anirban Lahiri leads halfway through the third round, but given he's the No. 322 player in the world and there are 30 golfers within five of his 9-under lead with almost a round and a half still to go, that advantage is tenable at best.
Lahiri shot 67 in Round 1 and then hung tough in Round 2 with a 73 before seizing the lead with a stunning 31 on the front nine on Sunday in a delayed Round 3. Just after the horn blew to suspend play for the evening, he lagged an eagle putt at the 11th hole and tapped in for birdie to go up one over Harold Varner III and Tom Hoge.
This would be the biggest win of Lahiri's career by a wide margin (his current best win is the 2015 Maybank Malaysian Open), and his lead and potential victory epitomizes the variance of TPC Sawgrass and the wild nature of this golf tournament where leaderboards seem to have no rhyme and even less reason.
It would be an awesome story. When asked about his struggles this season (Lahiri has missed three cuts in six starts and does not have a top 40 finish), he gave an answer that could serve as a bit of foreshadowing should he go on to win.
"The beauty about what we do is that you're one week away from being a PGA Tour winner," said Lahiri. "You're one week away from being at Augusta. You're one week away from having a 2-, 3-year exemption. You're one week away from you having a different kind of conversation with me."
Lahiri is closer than that now. He's just 25 holes away from it, but as mentioned, he'll have to fight off a massive cavalry charging all day on Monday. Among the 30 golfers within five strokes of Lahiri's lead, here are the best bets to overtake him and win the 2022 Players Championship.
Tom Hoge (-8, T2): The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner leads the field in strokes gained tee to green and along with Varner III and Sam Burns, and he has the most holes in front of him. He's not a household name, but Hoge has been really good all year, doesn't seem to get rattled at all and has the statistical profile of somebody who's about to go out and win this tournament.
Sam Burns (-7, T4): Of the players at the top, he has a gear I'm not sure the rest of them possess. His tee to green play has lacked, and that showed late on Sunday with a few leaky drives. But if he's on his game Monday morning, he can absolutely get to 11 under or 12 under and win this thing.
Cameron Smith (-7, T4): He's been so fun to watch once again, but the statistical profile is concerning. He's been doing most of his work with the putter, which could last but probably won't. Still, I think his firepower is up there with Burns, and I trust him to hit smart shots and not lose his head.
Paul Casey (-7, T4): Do I trust him in a big spot with this tournament on the line? I'm not sure. Good player, and his iron play has been exquisite, but with the chips down late on No. 17 and No. 18, he's not necessarily the guy I want hitting the shots.
Harold Varner III (-8, T2): It's a bit of the same question with Varner III for me as it was with Casey. He seems allergic to leads at times. While he has a nice win at the Saudi International under his belt earlier this year, closing that out on a 90-foot eagle putt is a bit different than trying to steer home a Players with $3.6 million on the line when you're staring at all that water on Nos. 17-18 on Monday afternoon. It would be pretty awesome to see him win, however, given his popularity and how well he's been playing of late.
Erik van Rooyen (-5, T11): He's currently second in this field from tee to green and hasn't made much of anything. Like most of the golfers in this top 10, this would be the biggest win of his life. He'll start on the back nine on Monday morning and play it twice. He only has one bogey on that side of the course all week.
Daniel Berger (-6, T7): He's the biggest name and the best player within three of Lahiri. He got the wrong side of the draw, unfortunately, and his ball-striking has not been stellar. He's kind of hanging around and is certainly capable of getting hot enough to win this thing, but it's not something I'm expecting to happen on Monday afternoon.
Francesco Molinari (-6, T7): Molinari has just four top 10s in the last three years, so I'm not sure anybody saw this coming, but he's been awesome this week and especially in Round 3 (5 under thru 15 holes). Molinari is the only major championship winner in the current top 10 on this leaderboard.
Tommy Fleetwood (-5, T11): I love the way he's hitting it this week, and he's crushed at this golf course. Like a lot of the players on this board, this would be his first PGA Tour win, which would be a pretty wild feat to accomplish at The Players.
Justin Thomas (-4, T18): I can't quit him. He came out firing early in Round 3, but a double bogey-bogey stretch late on his front nine cost him. Still, he came back from eight down with 36 to go last year, so five down with 25 or so to go isn't going to intimidate him. Thomas' iron play has been awesome, but he needs a little more consistency off the tee (and obviously, he'll have to hole everything he looks at).
Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme recap Sunday's action at TPC Sawgrass. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.