Two stress-free days were followed by a bit of adversity for 54-hole leader Lee Hodges. Entering the weekend in possession of the first 36-hole lead of his young PGA Tour career, Hodges overcame a nervy start to his third round to sign for a 5-under 66 and steps into Sunday's deciding 18 at TPC Twin Cities five clear of J.T. Poston and six clear of Tony Finau at 20 under.
Hodges entered the week just outside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings that will qualify for the postseason. With a wire-to-wire win, he would jump all the way to 33rd in the season-long race.
After hitting his tee shot into the water on the second hole of his third round leading to his first bogey of the tournament, Hodges steadied the ship. Back-to-back birdies were followed with a poor three-putt bogey to close out his outward nine, and his original four-stroke lead trimmed to as little as two with Kevin Yu making a charge towards 59. Where Yu ran into trouble, however, Hodges ran into birdies. Five par breakers against four pars in his final nine holes saw the 28-year-old separate from the field yet again and stretch his overnight margin.
Hodges has been brilliant through his first 54 holes, but Sundays on the PGA Tour have proven to be a different beast. Finau finds himself in similar position to 2022 when he was down five with 11 holes to play before Scott Piercy tripped up and let Finau enter the winner's circle. The defending champion aims to repeat history, as will Poston, who searches for his third career title.
The leader
1. Lee Hodges (-20): The largest 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour this season has been six strokes, held by both Russell Henley in Mayakoba and Collin Morikawa in Maui. Hodges narrowly missed joining that pair, but he will hope for the same fate as Henley after a stellar back-nine performance on Saturday settled his nerves. It is always difficult to sleep on the lead, but to do it three straight nights is both mentally and emotionally taxing. Hodges has been sturdy throughout the bag thus far and must continue to lean on his approach play, where he ranks second this week.
Other contenders
2. J.T. Poston (-15)
3. Tony Finau (-14)
4. Aaron Baddeley (-13)
T5. Sam Ryder, Keith Mitchell, Billy Horschel, Kevin Streelman (-12)
T9. Tyler Duncan, Nick Hardy (-11)
It is refreshing to see Horschel playing solid after a season filled with disappointment. The former Florida Gator hasn't performed this poorly since his rookie year in total strokes gained, strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach. While it is unlikely he catches Hodges, Horschel has always been a player to thrive on momentum. He could parlay his success in Minnesota into more of the same in next week's regular-season finale, where he would need a win to gain entry into the playoffs.
Finau rediscovering form at ideal time
Since picking his sixth career victory on the PGA Tour at the Mexico Open, Finau has struggled to string four rounds together. That does not appear to be the case here; he is in the mix for win No. 7 in what would be his first successful title defense. Not only would a win elevate Finau's position in the FedEx Cup standings, but it would bolster his candidacy for the U.S. Ryder Cup Team as one the few bright spots for the Americans last time the cup was held in Europe in 2018.
2023 3M Open updated odds and picks
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Lee Hodges: 20/67
- J.T. Poston: 13/2
- Tony Finau: 8-1
With only three players under 10-1, Hodges enters the final round as a heavy betting favorite. It is justified -- a five-stroke lead is difficult to overcome -- but Poston at 13/2 could be a man up to the task. He leads the field in strokes gained approach this week, but he hasn't had much going on the greens the past two days. If he putts in the same light as Thursday, it would not be shocking if Poston gives Hodges something to think about come the final few holes.