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Chiefs vs. Dolphins score: Kansas City's defense shuts down Miami's offense to advance to divisional round

The Kansas City Chiefs keep their dreams of repeating as Super Bowl champions alive. In a frigid Arrowhead Stadium, Patrick Mahomes and company were able to outlast the Miami Dolphins to earn the Super Wild Card Weekend victory and advance to the divisional round, 26-7.

It was a hot start for the Chiefs as they drove 69 yards on nine plays with Mahomes connecting with Rashee Rice for an opening drive touchdown. After that, however, things did start to slow down for both sides as they traded three-and-outs and Tua Tagovailoa tossed an interception before we saw Kansas City add to its lead with a chip-shot field goal from Harrison Butker at the start of the second quarter. 

Down by 10, the Dolphins first -- and only -- gasp of offense came courtesy of Tyreek Hill, who was making his return to Kansas City for the first time since the 2022 trade that landed him in Miami. He hauled in his first target of the game less than a minute into the second quarter and Tagovailoa went back to him on the very next play, which resulted in a 53-yard touchdown to make it a 10-7 game. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, that was the only big threat they were able to inflict on the Chiefs, who plucked field goals of four of the next five drives to extend their lead and ultimately help lead them to the win. 

The backbreaking moment for the Dolphins came at the start of the second half as they trailed by nine. After getting the ball to start the third quarter, the offense logged back-to-back drives where they were forced to punt and managed just 15 yards of total offense. Over that same stretch, the Chiefs posted consecutive scoring drives that tacked 10 more points on the board in their favor, leaving Miami in the dust. 

Coming through on critical downs proved to be the X-factor in this game. While the Chiefs were able to move the chains, the same can't be said for Miami. The Dolphins didn't convert a third or fourth down attempt until the 5:58 mark of the third quarter. For the game, they were 1-for-12 on third down and 3-for-6 on fourth down. As for the Chiefs, they were 6-for-15 on third down and converted their lone fourth down try. 

Mahomes finished 23 of 41 passing for 262 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards on the ground. Rashee Rice was his go-to target in the win, catching eight of his 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. As for Miami, Tagovailoa was 20 of 39 for 199 through the air to go along with a touchdown and an interception. Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 62 yards, most of which coming on that 53-yard touchdown in the first half.

For a more detailed breakdown of this head-to-head, check out our main takeaways below.

Why the Chiefs won

One of the big stories following the Chiefs this season was the struggles from the wide receiver group as they led the league in dropped passes. Well, it was a quiet night for the position group as a whole, except for rookie Rashee Rice. In his playoff debut, he proved to be the trusted target for Mahomes, seeing a game-high 12 targets which he turned into 130 yards and a touchdown. He also would've had another score had a penalty not called it back. Having someone other than Travis Kelce -- seven catches for 71 yards -- to lean on for Mahomes could prove to be invaluable as they continue this playoff run. 

Also on the offensive side, Mahomes' mobility came up clutch. He only rushed twice in this game but made both attempts count. He had a 28-yard run in the first half on a fourth down attempt and then scrambled for 13 yards on Kansas City's opening possession of the second half. Both runs set up field goals. The offensive line also did a tremendous job keeping Mahomes upright as the quarterback wasn't sacked once.

Defensively, the Chiefs continue to play at a level not seen in prior seasons under Mahomes and Reid. They stifled Miami's running game and kept the explosive passing game in check. Tyreek Hill did escape for a 53-yard touchdown catch in the first half, but outside of that caught just four of his seven targets for nine yards. 

Why the Dolphins lost

The Dolphins offense couldn't move the ball in key situations. They were horrid on third and fourth down for most of the night and didn't convert on either critical down until midway through the third quarter. They also never made it into the red zone. The backfield was a non-existent threat with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane combining for 42 rushing yards on 14 attempts. The passing game was also out of rhythm for most of the night as well with Jaylen Waddle only hauling in two catches, while Tyreek Hill was largely silent outside of quick burst in the second quarter that we noted above.

Miami's injuries on defense also seemed to finally catch up to them, specifically off the edge. With the likes of Jaelan Phillips (torn Achilles in Week 12) and Bradley Chubb (torn ACL in Week 17) sidelined, Mahomes had all day to throw the football, which is a death sentence for any defense. Vic Fangio tried to disrupt the Chiefs quarterback with tons of blitzes, but couldn't get home with the likes of Emmanuel Ogbah, Justin Houston, and Melvin Ingram.

Turning point

The start of the second was where all hope of the Dolphins pulling off a comeback evaporated. They got the ball to start the third and went three-and-out on a drive that lasted just 99 seconds. The defense was able to hold the Chiefs to a field goal on the ensuing drive to keep the deficit to a more manageable 12 points but needed to start sparking up scoring drives. Mike McDaniel recognized that judging by keeping his offense on the field for a fourth-and-1 attempt from the Miami 34-yard line on that next drive, which they would convert. However, the offense sputtered over the next few plays, including that save from Chris Jones and George Karlaftis above that set up a third and long, which they failed to convert.  

Play of the game

Patrick Mahomes made a couple of stellar plays with his legs in the win (including one where he broke his helmet). The most impactful came on a fourth-and-4 situation where Andy Reid left his offense on the field. With his receiver bottled up, Mahomes escaped the pocket and not only picked up the first down but ran 28 yards down the field to set up an eventual field goal that extended the Chiefs lead. 

What's next

From here, the Chiefs will now wait for the results of Monday's rescheduled matchup between the Steelers and Bills. If Buffalo comes out of that game with a win, Kansas City will head to Orchard Park for the divisional round. If Pittsburgh pulls off the upset, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will travel to Arrowhead next week.

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Live updates
 

As the game gets set to kick off, here are a few notes straight from the NFL regarding extreme weather:

  1. NFL Chief Medical Officer Dr Allen Sills and other league medical consultants have been in touch with the medical staffs for both clubs, as well as medical personnel at the NFL Players Association.  Team medical staffs will brief the players, coaches, and other team personnel in advance of tomorrow's game regarding safe practices for the cold temperatures.  The medical personnel will also be in contact with the game officials. 
  2. Each team will have equipment and gear to provide additional protection from the cold temperatures, including heated benches, other heating equipment, heavy jackets and parkas, gloves, hand warmers, and fluids to avoid dehydration. 
  3. The playing field will be properly covered, heated, and prepared in advance of the game.  
  4. The Chiefs are implementing enhanced measures to assist their fans and game day staff, including warming stations, hand warmers, hot beverages, and refraining from having halftime entertainment so that fans can leave the bowl to seek warmth during halftime.  
 

Pete Prisco's best bets? Pete Prisco's best bets!

The Dolphins will go into Arrowhead a banged-up team, especially on defense. They will be down their top three pass rushers. That's a problem against Patrick Mahomes, even if the Chiefs offense has struggled this season by comparison to pastMahomes teams. They will do enough here as their defense limits a Miami offense that has had problems on the road. Chiefs take it. 

Pick: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 19

 

How much should weather play a role in who you include in your NFL DFS lineups? Before locking in your NFL DFS picks for Super Wild Card Weekend on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, you need to see what Mike McClure has to say

McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every snap of NFL action, taking factors such as matchups, statistical trends, and injuries into account. This allows him to find the best DFS values that he shares only with members at SportsLine. His methodology has led to enormous cashes on FanDuel and DraftKings.

He took down two high-stakes tournaments on FanDuel in 2020 and recorded a pair of top-10 finishes in tournaments with over 130,000 entrants on DraftKings. His lineups also finished inside the top 1% in more than a dozen other tournaments. Last year, he won the DraftKings Millionaire Maker twice and the FanDuel Million once.

 

After examining dozens of NFL player props across the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Saturday markets, SportsLine AI says Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes goes over 253.5 passing yards. It wasn't an idyllic season by Mahomes' standards, his 14 interceptions were a career-high and his 7.0 yards per pass attempt were a career-low. 

However, he still topped this total in eight of 16 starts this season and he's thrown for at least 255 yards in 12 of his 14 career postseason starts. Mahomes averaged 260.1 passing yards per game at home this season and 304.5 yards at home during the NFL playoffs. 

Now, he'll match up with a banged-up Miami defense that will be without its top three edge-rushers, linebacker Jerome Baker and No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard. The AI PickBot predicts that Mahomes throws for 294.8 and rates the over as a 4.5-star play.  See more NFL props here.  

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Tyler Sullivan ranked this weekend's matchups from an entertainment perspective. Chiefs-Dolphins checked in at No. 4:

This game is a pure streamer with it airing only on Peacock, so make sure you're all situated for that Saturday night. I think some people might be sleeping on this matchup because of the poor play from both of these teams down the stretch. That said, I think you pay close attention to Kansas City. Yes, the wide receivers have been its demise all season long, but let me ask you this: what wins in the playoffs? A strong defense, ability to run the football effectively, and smart quarterback play. The Chiefs have all three in spades, making them a sleeping giant that could potentially reveal itself at the start of these playoffs. If not, the drum to add offensive weapons will only beat louder. Meanwhile, the storylines coming out of Miami in this game will be fascinating as well. Either it pulls off a rare cold-weather win and Tua Tagovailoa continues to state his case to be among the elite QBs in the league, or he falters and the opposite questions are asked. Plenty of offseason narratives could springboard off of this game. 

 

Check out Will Brinson's best bets. Here's what he had to say about Chiefs vs. Dolphins:

The narrative surrounding this game might just lean into the weather! It's supposed to be -2 degrees or so in Kansas City on Saturday -- yes, -2 degrees -- with a wind chill around -10 thanks to 10-15 mph winds. Stealing the narrative from Tyreek Hill here is pretty impressive -- it's Hill's first game back at Arrowhead Stadium since the Chiefs traded him to Miami and it's somehow not the top story. Kind of amazing! Assuming the temperature holds, this will be one of the four or five coldest games in NFL playoff history and the coldest home game in Chiefs history. 

And, frankly, it doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. Miami is 0-10 in its last 10 games when the temperature is below 40 degrees, the longest current losing streak of any team in such games. If you take the five coldest games of Tua Tagovailoa's career -- all of which range between 30 degrees and 46 degrees -- he is 0-5 in those games, with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and completes just over 56% of his passes. The Dolphins have also been terrible against good teams (1-5 vs. playoff teams) but so have the Chiefs (1-4, the one win against Miami!) so I don't read too much into that.

 

Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both active. We'll see how much they can do after sitting out each of the past two weeks.

 

Dolphins inactives include both Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland. Defense is incredibly shorthanded tonight.

 

Chiefs inactives include Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross, as well as Wanya Morris, who had been making starts at left tackle.

 

Before locking in any Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and has nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

 

The temperature tonight is expected to be around minus-2 degrees with a wind chill approaching -30, according to the National Weather Service. If that projection holds up, then this will become the coldest game that the Dolphins have ever played in, which isn't great news for them, considering they've lost 10 straight games when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or below. 

John Breech has more details here.

 

This game will be broadcast exclusively on Peacock. Why? Let our Jeff Kerr explain.

NBC Universal paid the NFL $110 million last year for rights to carry a wild card game on Peacock -- a one-year deal. This will be a trial for the league in its new television contract, which had exclusive games on streaming in the regular season (Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime, international game on ESPN+, and Saturday night game on Peacock). 

 

Before you make any Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks or NFL picks, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say, given his mastery of picks in games involving Miami. A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 69-43-2 since the start of last season, including a 14-4 record the last six weeks.

Most importantly, Hartstein has a read on the pulse of the Dolphins. He is 28-17-1 (+904) on his last 46 picks in games involving Miami! Anyone who has followed him is way up. We can tell you he's leaning Under the point total, but to check out his official pick on the spread, head on over to SportsLine

 

in our first prime-time game of the weekend, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will play host to the Miami Dolphins.

Kansas City uncharacteristically struggled for large portions of this season and finished just 11-6, capturing the AFC's No. 3 seed. The Dolphins seemed like they had the AFC East all wrapped up before the injury bug bit them down the stretch, and they ended up losing both the division and home-field advantage.

Which of these teams will advance to the divisional round? Read our full matchup breakdown here.

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